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re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:21 pm to High C
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:21 pm to High C
quote:
Do you guys have a target price (that you would share) where you plan to let go of some or all of your LVVV?
It's hard to really settle on a target price because it depends on what exactly the company is doing at that point, what news caused the spike, what news should hit soon, etc. For instance, we know that we're likely to get our long awaited uplist to OTCQB in the very near future, and we also know that revenues are coming (fully licensed Coachella location has been growing clones for around 5 weeks now and sales are occurring). So soon they could be releasing news of revenue, maybe a tweet of a purchase order, or at the very least the financial reports at the end of the 1st quarter. So if it hits .10 next month and none of that revenue news has hit yet, I'm not selling when I feel pretty sure it is still going to climb when that occurs. However, if it continues its little roller coaster in the .02-.04 range then spikes to .10 AFTER we get 1st quarter financials, then I'd probably set a stop loss on some of my shares there because I'd see that as a temporary peak that may not change until the next really big news (which would be that either the Paso Robles or the Riverside location is fully licensed and up and running, which at the earliest is probably near the end of the second quarter or into the third).
I'm at 500,000 shares right now, but around 150,000 of that is earmarked for the short term (a few months). Basically that is money that I have budgeted for other things in the next few months, but thought it was better served sitting in LVVV during that time rather than sitting in my checking account. But it wasn't really budgeted as my "investment money". Ideally, I'd like to be able to cash out that 150,000 shares at a price that gets my original investment back, so I'd then be riding 350,000 "free" shares. So if I were putting a target price on those shares, I'd be shooting for the .10 range.
Another 150,000 shares I'd like to hold onto until Paso Robles fully licensed, up and running, and generating revenue, which I think should happen by the end of the summer (or certainly by the end of the year). At that point it wouldn't surprise me if a bigger company tries to buy us out. If so, I would hope it's in the .25 -.50 range. I don't think Bill would want to sell out before we reach that price range, because holding onto the company could pay off much bigger than that. But if we ever reach that price range, I'd probably sell another 150K there (again as a stop loss in case it continues rising).
I'd like to hold onto 200,000 shares for a longer term - at least until Coachella, Paso Robles, and Riverside are all up and running and producing/selling at or near capacity. With the type of revenue that would generate, I think we'll be in the $1.00-$2.00 range. Hopefully that would be within the next 2 years.
There is so much potential here. PotNetwork is one I like to look at for comparison. Around Dec. of '17 to Jan. '18, POTN jumped from 6 cents to 85 cents in just 4 weeks. I wasn't following it at the time, but I believe that sharp rise was spurred by better than expected financial reports. These stocks can rise quickly, but they also usually fall just as quickly. From what I can gather, POTN was producing an average of $1 million/month in 2017 and doubled that to over $2 million/month in 2018, yet their big rise was at the end of '17/start of '18 and then it dropped back down to as low as .08 at the end of '18 despite doubling '17's revenue. Regardless, the revenue numbers that drove them all the way to 85 cents are numbers that are well within reach for Livewire, even from Coachella alone once they expand there.
Remember that LVVV is only trading at around 1-2 million shares/day for the past bunch of months, but back when we were at .08 last May we were trading as much as 20-40 million shares/day. The stock will act very differently when that volume returns.
TL;DR.........My advice would be to not focus as much on a particular target share price without looking at what benchmark the company has achieved to arrive at that price point, and how far away the next benchmark appears to be.
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 9:23 pm
2
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:29 pm to TigrrrDad
...I'd add that I would have sold 100-150K if we had hit around .06 back when we got the news of the Paso Robles approval with the intention of buying it all back if it dropped back down. However, we only had a brief spike to around .0375 around that time (my average is .0308 - not enough profit there to risk not getting those shares back).
But since that came and went, I'm not planning on trying to flip any shares now. We have so many potential big news events coming soon that there may not be enough time between them for it to dip enough for a flip/buyback.
But my plans seem to change on a daily basis depending on which way the wind blows.
But since that came and went, I'm not planning on trying to flip any shares now. We have so many potential big news events coming soon that there may not be enough time between them for it to dip enough for a flip/buyback.
But my plans seem to change on a daily basis depending on which way the wind blows.
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:33 pm to rowbear1922
quote:
I personally have a sell for 50k shares at 0.032. Those shares I bought at 0.017.
I try to think of it in those terms occasionally but I just can't do it. I tell myself, "Okay, all those shares you bought in December you can double your money on." But in the end I can only treat all my shares based on my average price.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 10:09 pm to TigrrrDad
Well I want to start seeing some fruits of my investment. I figure sell, buy back in with the original plus half the profit to add more shares when it dips then keep the other half the profit for other endeavors
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:09 pm to High C
quote:
Do you guys have a target price (that you would share) where you plan to let go of some or all of your LVVV?
I don’t know how anyone can have a target price when the number of shares outstanding is not known. Last q showed a billion shares with a ton of toxic death spiral debt that likely is convertible into billions (but we can’t tell as the financials do not comply with GAAP as they do t show conversion terms). Going back to when they filed 10-is on Edgar you can infer the toxicity. There will be a massive massive reverse stock split at some point. Almost a given with toxic debt. Sell before then lol
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:26 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
PotNetwork is one I like to look at for comparison. Around Dec. of '17 to Jan. '18, POTN jumped from 6 cents to 85 cents in just 4 weeks. I wasn't following it at the time, but I believe that sharp rise was spurred by better than expected financial reports.
There multiple paid promotions costing several thousand dollars didn’t hurt either lol. They were trying to push to 1.25 but fell short (although I am sure it was a great roi for the pumpers). My favorite thing about potnetworks is their auditor for this ‘legit’ Florida Company is based in.... Bangalore, India. LOL. Needless to say their 10-12G filing didn’t have a chance
Posted on 2/8/19 at 1:20 am to igoringa
Their full share structure has been presented in audited filings from as recent as the end of Q3 2018. Are you sure you’re not looking at old stuff from when they were an energy chew company? They had a toxic debt problem back then. That is no longer the case.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 1:35 am to igoringa
quote:
I don’t know how anyone can have a target price when the number of shares outstanding is not known
Posted on 2/8/19 at 7:52 am to TigrrrDad
quote:
All Righty Then
*shrug* again if you think a fundamental analysis argument (which is what you tend to be arguing in this thread) can lead to a target price without knowing the number of shares that exist - then well I don't know what to say.
If the argument is this company that has done paid promotions for 6 years to pump will do so more aggressively going forward to trick folks then sure.
quote:
full share structure has been presented in audited filings from as recent as the end of Q3 2018. Are you sure you’re not looking at old stuff from when they were an energy chew company? They had a toxic debt problem back then. That is no longer the case.
Again, Qs are not audited - don't know why you keep saying that. And yes, I have looked at the Q3 2018 financials and they show 986 million shares (almost doubled over 9 months), and it shows convertible notes of $216,230, however, in violation of GAAP does not disclose the conversion terms. Noting Qs can have simplified disclosures I went to the 12/31/17 audited financials (Borger as auditor) and noted again that the conversion terms are not disclosed. Now the last time they disclosed the terms they were variable with the usual toxic debt providers in the industry. Now if you are arguing they managed to upgrade their debt to more standard - would love to see any evidence of that as there is none in the filings you keep suggesting I review.
Further is you look at stockholders equity of the 9/30/18 Q you will see it has no correlation to the audited 12/31/17 financials. Ie in the Qs the value assigned to common stock is different and they have concepts such as 'common stock to be issued' which is at close to $600K. If that is legitimate, that is clearly representative of a significant number of more shares hitting the market (although it is extraordinary unlikely that is right as you only record such account under GAAP in very rare circumstances).
Don't get me wrong, I hope it goes to $1 and you guys all become rich. No skin off my back and good luck.... but when there are pages of fundamental analysis for a company that has pumped for years and most likely has literally billions of CSEs outstanding, and the argument is the number of shares isn't relevant... well lol I agree if this is a pump but if based off earnings... yeah number of shares is pretty important.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:11 am to igoringa
Igoringa, are you saying that.. ignoring the financials from LVVV the energy chew company... the books are funny? That begs the question.. does LVVV have an accountant on staff? Letting the owners run the books is like letting g the lunatics run the asylum.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:35 am to BitBuster
"are you saying that.. ignoring the financials from LVVV the energy chew company... the books are funny?"
I am saying they are not compliant, both the audited financials and the quarter reviews that are not audited. Comically, the q's they are sending out aren't calibrated to the results of the audit. For example, look at stockholders equity as of 12/31/17 per the audited financials (pg F2):
LINK
Now look at stockholders equity per their Q3 2018 release (pg 26):
LINK
It doesn't look like the same company (and it is not simply nine months of activity)… the Q numbers are ridiculously obviously off in this area both in terms of GAAP disclosure requirements and in comparison to the audited financials.
And as I mentioned in the audited financials, there are several required GAAP disclosures that are missing.
Virtually all microcap and penny stock companies do not have on staff accountants. They outsource to audit prep or CFO on call shops to prepare their books when they deem it is needed. Likely they brought someone in for the annuals to help as the auditor cannot create the changes that were made in format etc as that would violate independence but it is clear they are not bringing anyone in for the Qs.
I think if you are truly investing in this based off expected earnings, then the lack of clarity of the share structure including common stock equivalents should be concerning. If you are investing on a momentum play with no real concern on fundamentals beyond the fact they could be pumped to trigger momentum then the financials do not matter. The posts in this thread tend to be making both arguments.
In terms of the convertible debt I mentioned, that tends to be the bogey with these. And such debt is not extinguished or spun off when companies reverse merge like LVVV has. Further, 99.9% of microcaps, particularly those with no revenue, cannot refinance out of toxic debt into something normal. So when we look late 2015 and see toxic debt, and then the debt holds on the books but no conversion terms disclosed... I find it challenging to believe this is new exciting conventional fixed debt. LOL.
Again, plenty of reasons I can see taking a flyer on the obvious pump coming... and best of luck to all on that. Seriously. I hope you guys rock it.
I am saying they are not compliant, both the audited financials and the quarter reviews that are not audited. Comically, the q's they are sending out aren't calibrated to the results of the audit. For example, look at stockholders equity as of 12/31/17 per the audited financials (pg F2):
LINK
Now look at stockholders equity per their Q3 2018 release (pg 26):
LINK
It doesn't look like the same company (and it is not simply nine months of activity)… the Q numbers are ridiculously obviously off in this area both in terms of GAAP disclosure requirements and in comparison to the audited financials.
And as I mentioned in the audited financials, there are several required GAAP disclosures that are missing.
quote:
That begs the question.. does LVVV have an accountant on staff? Letting the owners run the books is like letting g the lunatics run the asylum.
Virtually all microcap and penny stock companies do not have on staff accountants. They outsource to audit prep or CFO on call shops to prepare their books when they deem it is needed. Likely they brought someone in for the annuals to help as the auditor cannot create the changes that were made in format etc as that would violate independence but it is clear they are not bringing anyone in for the Qs.
I think if you are truly investing in this based off expected earnings, then the lack of clarity of the share structure including common stock equivalents should be concerning. If you are investing on a momentum play with no real concern on fundamentals beyond the fact they could be pumped to trigger momentum then the financials do not matter. The posts in this thread tend to be making both arguments.
In terms of the convertible debt I mentioned, that tends to be the bogey with these. And such debt is not extinguished or spun off when companies reverse merge like LVVV has. Further, 99.9% of microcaps, particularly those with no revenue, cannot refinance out of toxic debt into something normal. So when we look late 2015 and see toxic debt, and then the debt holds on the books but no conversion terms disclosed... I find it challenging to believe this is new exciting conventional fixed debt. LOL.
Again, plenty of reasons I can see taking a flyer on the obvious pump coming... and best of luck to all on that. Seriously. I hope you guys rock it.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:49 am to igoringa
Igoringa, lvvv went from being an energy chew company to a cannabis company. Why do you think they didnt cut ties with the lvvv brand and just reincorporate as a cannabis company? Why continue as the same entity? Who benefits?
Also, I appreciate your sobering expert analysis.
Also, I appreciate your sobering expert analysis.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:50 am to TigrrrDad
Just grabbed a couple thousand shares to get in on it. Let's see how this goes
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:59 am to BitBuster
quote:
Igoringa, lvvv went from being an energy chew company to a cannabis company. Why do you think they didnt cut ties with the lvvv brand and just reincorporate as a cannabis company? Why continue as the same entity? Who benefits?
Prior to that, the publically trading entity was Semper Flowers. Livewire reverse recapped into that in 2011 and then changed course again into MJ. I want to point out that is not inherently unusual.
The answer to your question is cost. To get your Company through the registration process with the SEC can be very expensive (several hundred thousand dollars). So if you start new, you have to incur those costs. However, if you reverse merge into an already existing trading company or just change lanes and enter a new industry, you don't have those costs.
There is an entire industry of empty shells out there (ie SEC registrants with no active business). Private companies wanted to go public effectively buy them and merge in to cut out those costs. Right now, shells go for probably $250-$300K although I think that will drop a little for a multitude of reasons.
Further, if you leave the toxic debt holders hanging, who is going to lend to you in your newco? There are really a handful of lenders (that's it) that lend to microcaps and that itself is shrinking as FINRA is wreaking havoc (long story).
And honestly, management doesn't care that much about the number of shares outstanding because they have super preferred stock that allows them to control the company regardless of how many shares are out there. Real stock markets (NASDAQ, NYSE) do not allow such instruments, but OTC does and it is common to use. With LVVV, it is the Preferred C that gives permanent control to management no matter how many shares they have to issue to settle debt.
But that is why LVVV does it the way they did it. It makes sense for companies like this with no cash.
quote:
Also, I appreciate your sobering expert analysis.
No worries, and again there is reasons to play this... the fundamental argument and assumptions on a microcap like this are where I have my issues.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 9:02 am to igoringa
This is why this board is the best on TD. Learn so much here 
Posted on 2/8/19 at 10:18 am to igoringa
Why do you say that a financial report issued at the end of a quarter can not be an audited report?
The entire share structure, list of all major shareholders and how many shares they hold, etc. has been released through audited filings that were submitted for uplisting to OTCQB. They were all posted/linked on Ihub. I don't get what you are trying to say regarding a target price. The price is the price. On a daily basis it is being bought and sold at a share price. That price rises and falls. I don't know how you don't know how anyone can have a target price. If it's .02 and their target price is .03 and it hits that tomorrow (aka their target price), they sell for that price.
quote:
I don’t know how anyone can have a target price when the number of shares outstanding is not known.
The entire share structure, list of all major shareholders and how many shares they hold, etc. has been released through audited filings that were submitted for uplisting to OTCQB. They were all posted/linked on Ihub. I don't get what you are trying to say regarding a target price. The price is the price. On a daily basis it is being bought and sold at a share price. That price rises and falls. I don't know how you don't know how anyone can have a target price. If it's .02 and their target price is .03 and it hits that tomorrow (aka their target price), they sell for that price.
This post was edited on 2/8/19 at 10:36 am
Posted on 2/8/19 at 10:34 am to TigrrrDad
quote:
Why do you say that a financial report issued at the end of a quarter can not be an audited report?
1) Issuers are not required to have quarterly financial statements audited so virtually none do. I can't think of one offhand that does. They theoretically could but find me a public company that voluntarily asks to be audited more then once a year! lol
2) With LVVV it is obviously not reviewed as its format does not comply with GAAP (look at stockholders equity presentation of the audited 12/31/17 and what they show in Qs - the Qs are not compliant). Again, not unique for a microcap but it is what it is.
3) And to remove doubt, if you go back to pg 26 of the link I put above for the last Q (and include here: LINK ) on the top under the heading it says unaudited.
So they say it, I say it, it shows it, it is unaudited.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 10:40 am to igoringa
You're looking at unaudited filings. Audited ones have been released.
They had everything audited because they had to be in full SEC compliance in order to apply for the uplist to OTCQB:
Anaheim, CA, April 05, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LiveWire Ergogenics, Inc. (OTC: LVVV) announced today that it has retained AMC Auditing of Las Vegas, Nevada to audit the Company’s operations and financials to comply with SEC Reporting requirements for small SEC-reporting companies. The company will also provide the OTC Markets Group with the materials required to be uplisted to OTCQB. Until this process has been completed, the Company will continue to file its unaudited financials as required by OTC Markets.
-----------------------
Anaheim, CA, Nov. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LiveWire Ergogenics, Inc. (OTC: LVVV), a company focused on special purpose real estate acquisitions and the licensing and management of fully compliant “closed loop” turnkey facilities for the production of cannabis-based products and services in California, announced today that it has applied for up-listing to the OTCQB Venture Market Place....To be eligible for this higher-tier trading platform, companies must be current in their reporting and undergo a quarterly review and rigorous annual auditing and management certification process by an SEC certified auditing firm.
LiveWire Ergogenics’s auditors have audited and approved the Company’s financial reports for the last two years and the Company has filed these audited reports on OTC and at the same time submitted its application for uplisting to the OTCQB.
------------------------
quote:
1) Issuers are not required to have quarterly financial statements audited so virtually none do.
They had everything audited because they had to be in full SEC compliance in order to apply for the uplist to OTCQB:
Anaheim, CA, April 05, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LiveWire Ergogenics, Inc. (OTC: LVVV) announced today that it has retained AMC Auditing of Las Vegas, Nevada to audit the Company’s operations and financials to comply with SEC Reporting requirements for small SEC-reporting companies. The company will also provide the OTC Markets Group with the materials required to be uplisted to OTCQB. Until this process has been completed, the Company will continue to file its unaudited financials as required by OTC Markets.
-----------------------
Anaheim, CA, Nov. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LiveWire Ergogenics, Inc. (OTC: LVVV), a company focused on special purpose real estate acquisitions and the licensing and management of fully compliant “closed loop” turnkey facilities for the production of cannabis-based products and services in California, announced today that it has applied for up-listing to the OTCQB Venture Market Place....To be eligible for this higher-tier trading platform, companies must be current in their reporting and undergo a quarterly review and rigorous annual auditing and management certification process by an SEC certified auditing firm.
LiveWire Ergogenics’s auditors have audited and approved the Company’s financial reports for the last two years and the Company has filed these audited reports on OTC and at the same time submitted its application for uplisting to the OTCQB.
------------------------
This post was edited on 2/8/19 at 10:44 am
Posted on 2/8/19 at 10:48 am to igoringa
quote:
. Further, 99.9% of microcaps, particularly those with no revenue, cannot refinance out of toxic debt into something normal. So when we look late 2015 and see toxic debt, and then the debt holds on the books but no conversion terms disclosed... I find it challenging to believe this is new exciting conventional fixed debt.
Like I said, they did have a lot of toxic debt when they failed as an energy chew company. But when they switched to a cannabis company in 2017 they picked up a major angel investor who holds a large share count in line with the CEO and the COO. They also held 70-80% of the common shares in APRU and have been selling back billions of shares. They restructured their debt. They have also reached the point where they will start producing serious revenue. The Coachella location is fully licensed and is growing as of Dec. 31, 2018 - and now selling product.
Regarding the shares outstanding count - yes, their share count has increased over the post couple years, but for good reason. They acquired partial ownership with the option of full ownership of Alpha Creations, Sacred Biology, Mojave Jane (which they in turn flipped for shares in High Hampton), and they signed an endorsement deal with Jimmy Connors. All of these moves increased the share count, but likewise increased the size and value of the company. It was growth, not dilution.
-----------------------------
Anaheim, CA, Jan. 10, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)
...OTC Compliance – Generate Shareholder Value:
To provide increased transparency of its business transactions to its shareholders, the Company has brought its OTC filing status into full compliance and is currently preparing its 2017 year-end filings for timely submission and publication. LiveWire has been successful in solidifying its debt structure during 2017, while maintaining a reasonable number of outstanding shares. LiveWire has agreed to terms to sell a block of its common stock holdings in the Apple Rush Company back to Apple Rush and subsequently reduce its holdings to under 5% and maintain a non-affiliate status in Apple Rush. LiveWire expects that it may have to raise additional working capital to support its rapid expansion plans, but is focused on non-toxic structures for any future financial vehicles with minimum dilution for existing shareholders.
----------------------------
This post was edited on 2/8/19 at 11:00 am
Posted on 2/8/19 at 11:11 am to igoringa
quote:
If you are investing on a momentum play with no real concern on fundamentals beyond the fact they could be pumped to trigger momentum then the financials do not matter.
Honestly, I’m fine with this.
I don't really care about their net profits or what their books do or do not say, I care more about the fact that showing revenue drives share price. A good example is Tilray. I watched that stock run from $150/share to $285 (and back down to around $215 at close) at a time when they were still losing a net $12 million in a single quarter. Was the company truly worth well over $20 billion for those hours? Of course not. But that mattered little to the guys who sold in the high $200s that day.
That being said, they've weathered the storm of debt issues and have now reached the point where I feel they will be financially successful as a company. The revenue potential is so huge once Coachella, Paso Robles, and Riverside are all at or near capacity that it will eliminate any remaining debt. If they had to wait another year before they were producing revenue, then I'd be worried.
This post was edited on 2/8/19 at 11:26 am
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