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Jobs Numbers
Posted on 6/2/23 at 7:37 am
Posted on 6/2/23 at 7:37 am
Payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% against the estimate for 3.5%.
Economists are as close in their predictions as weathermen. Watch for revisions.
Economists are as close in their predictions as weathermen. Watch for revisions.
7
Posted on 6/2/23 at 7:44 am to ynlvr
Another rate hike now in the cards.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 7:48 am to ynlvr
Makes sense to me. Ending the jobs return curve from Covid so jobs being added in business sectors (still).
Wages flat. Business pressure still with costs increases and sales declines.
Unemployment was set to rise from those reported looking for jobs last month. Goods sectors down.
Labor force participation still significantly off from pre Covid.
Except zero fed decreases this year for sure.
Wages flat. Business pressure still with costs increases and sales declines.
Unemployment was set to rise from those reported looking for jobs last month. Goods sectors down.
Labor force participation still significantly off from pre Covid.
Except zero fed decreases this year for sure.
This post was edited on 6/2/23 at 7:50 am
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:16 am to ynlvr
How many of these jobs were added by the Birth-Death Model?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:40 am to ynlvr
soft landing actually possible. who believes it?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:46 am to ynlvr
quote:
Payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate.
quote:
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% against the estimate for 3.5%.
It jumped up to 3.7% from 3.4% in April. We're still considerably below the pre-COVID LFPR, which has been flat the last three months.
So we have more job creation yet more people seeking jobs when we look at U3 but not when we look at LFPR (that's been flat for the last 3 months and is still well below pre-COVID levels). To go with that, Unemployment claims (both initial and continuing) are fairly flat (not enough to account for the jump in U3, at least).
Something isn't adding up.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:48 am to JimMorrison
I actually believe if Fed holds and raises once more, we can wash the Covid cycle and ease back in. We have to get rid of the anomaly and deal with traditional economic factors.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 8:58 am to RealDawg
quote:
raises once more
That's all it takes? Just one more and we're set?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:06 am to skewbs
quote:
That's all it takes? Just one more and we're set?
In terms of Fed near term, yes.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:09 am to Bard
quote:It only doesn't add up if your default position is THE ECONOMY IS TERRIBLE.
Something isn't adding up.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:09 am to RealDawg
quote:
I actually believe if Fed holds and raises once more, we can wash the Covid cycle and ease back in. We have to get rid of the anomaly and deal with traditional economic factors.
Have you met my friend, "Debt Ceiling Suspension Until 2025"?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:11 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
It only doesn't add up if your default position is THE ECONOMY IS TERRIBLE.
You mean being realistic?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:16 am to Bard
quote:Case in point. You have decided things are terrible, and then any info to the contrary just "doesn't add up".
You mean being realistic?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:25 am to Bard
quote:So, you are arguing we are "printing money" by extended the debt ceiling?
Have you met my friend, "Debt Ceiling Suspension Until 2025"?
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:29 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Case in point. You have decided things are terrible, and then any info to the contrary just "doesn't add up".
Incorrect. I've looked at the data and decided things don't add up based on the context the data has provided. We have two competing gauges of employment/unemployment and they are saying different things.
Instead of providing more context to show where it does add up though, all you're offering is essentially "nuh-uhh".
My belief is that the current economy is a house of cards and our government is doing its damnedest to (unknowingly or knowingly) turn on a leaf blower.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:33 am to Bard
quote:I'm not sure what you want me to tell you. Employment is still strong and we have positive (real) growth.
Instead of providing more context to show where it does add up though, all you're offering is essentially "nuh-uhh".
quote:In this metaphor, what is the leaf blower?
My belief is that the current economy is a house of cards and our government is doing its damnedest to (unknowingly or knowingly) turn on a leaf blower.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:43 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
So, you are arguing we are "printing money" by extended the debt ceiling?
Essentially, yes (not in the QE sense, but in the debt-which-will-never-be-paid-back sense). Continued federal debt creation (especially at current interest rates) is unsustainable at the levels we're seeing, and now likely to continue to see for the foreseeable future. Within 10 years debt servicing will exceed Defense spending and Medicaid spending. Within 20 years it will be the largest single cost for the federal government.
At that point, a default is inevitable.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:53 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I'm not sure what you want me to tell you. Employment is still strong and we have positive (real) growth.
I'm asking you what you are seeing that adds up.
U3 rises yet the labor force participation rate remains flat (and still well below the average going back to the late 70s) and job creation skyrockets. How does that make sense? Having flat lfpr and such a spike in job creation should lower U3, especially when unemployment claims also remain flat.
quote:
In this metaphor, what is the leaf blower?
The federal government continuing to deficit spend like MMT is a viable monetary philosophy.
This post was edited on 6/2/23 at 9:54 am
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:56 am to Bard
quote:Maybe.
Essentially, yes (not in the QE sense, but in the debt-which-will-never-be-paid-back sense). Continued federal debt creation (especially at current interest rates) is unsustainable at the levels we're seeing, and now likely to continue to see for the foreseeable future. Within 10 years debt servicing will exceed Defense spending and Medicaid spending. Within 20 years it will be the largest single cost for the federal government.
quote:Maybe. Depends on your time scale. What's your prediction of when Japan will default?
At that point, a default is inevitable.
Posted on 6/2/23 at 9:57 am to Bard
quote:At which point were you expecting deficit spending to end? I'd argue there is no new information here.
The federal government continuing to deficit spend like MMT is a viable monetary philosophy.
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