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Jack Bogle says he’s never seen the market this volatile

Posted on 4/13/18 at 9:26 am
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20860 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 9:26 am
quote:

‘I have never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career. Now that’s only 66 years, so I shouldn’t make too much about it, but you’re right: I’ve seen two 50-percent declines, I’ve seen a 25-percent decline in one day and I’ve never seen anything like this before


quote:

Bogle is referring notably to the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.04% which erased a 510-point decline on Wednesday to end up by 1%, or about 240 points, with the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.03% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.21% also producing stunning intraday turnarounds as fears of a trade clash between the U.S. and China receded in dramatic fashion.


Market Watch Link with Interview

Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 9:32 am to
I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but "experts" have been saying that for a year now. When somebody figures out how to time the market/what's actually going to happen in the future let me know.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4930 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 9:32 am to
Last year was the longest stretch in the history of he market without a 2% swing. I think we are just playing catch up bc of that. All things equal, that makes this historically average.
Posted by Omada
Member since Jun 2015
718 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 10:00 am to
Depending on how you define volatility, he's mostly wrong. If you use the VIX, that reached its height in October 2008 and hasn't come close since then. So he's wrong there.

If you define volatility as the average number of points the market moves in a day, that varies. For SPX, the highest 5 day average daily range is 98.044 points, which we hit on February 9 of this year; the previous high was 93.318 points, which was achieved on October 15, 2008. The highest SPX's 10 day average daily range ever got was 83.24 points, which happened on October 17, 2008; this year, the 10 day average topped out at 73.197 points on February 15. So the 5 day average (in absolute points, mind you, not percentage) agrees with him but the 10 day disagrees. The 30 day average also disagrees.

Now, my last paragraph was about the average number of points, not percent, the S&P moved in a day. SPX was under 1000 when it established those 2008 averages I mentioned, so those days had very big moves percentage-wise. SPX hasn't been under 2500 thus far this year, so we've seen much smaller moves percentage-wise. So Bogle is wrong there, too.
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
36167 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 10:21 am to
quote:

Depending on how you define volatility, he's mostly wrong. If you use the VIX, that reached its height in October 2008 and hasn't come close since then. So he's wrong there.
I was starting to think I was the only one who remembered the recession and the flash crash.
Posted by TimeOutdoors
LA
Member since Sep 2014
13401 posts
Posted on 4/13/18 at 9:25 pm to
I think some pretty powerful people are currently making a ton of money of the volatility and will do what they can to influence news/events that seem to influence the market more now than it did in past times.
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