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re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:35 pm to rotrain
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:35 pm to rotrain
There will absolutely be a correction at that point when taxes go up. I agree that we are stealing gains from the future. Good companies will innovate though and they will always find ways to profit.
0
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:53 pm to rintintin
Exactly the stigma of the virus and carnage it has caused unemployment wise hasn’t been realized fully yet IMO. A friend of mine was suggesting CCL today bc of the bailouts but that doesn’t address the fact that unemployment makes cruises for the masses that CCL caters to less likely or the stigma that a cruise ship is a plane, hotel, restaurant, bathroom all in one place. It’s been nice the last 3 days though but I’m nervous.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:54 pm to hikingfan
My guess since things dropped so hard they should bounce just as hard. We have a very long way to go atleast a couple more weeks of lock downs only increasing around the US and likely extending in most places. The China numbers are bull shite and this thing is worse than what they put out. It is pretty obvious if you look at everyone else’s numbers. Our economy has been turned off for 1 month the Saudi and Russian oil fight is just piling on. Nobody thinks that will resolve itself quickly and would be enough alone to push us in to a pullback/recession. Oil companies will all be negative for the year basically let that sink in. Not to mention we had a huge unemployment number today 3+mln and S&P went up 5% sure that’s seems reasonable.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:16 pm to CheEngineer
I agree there was easy money to be made short term but the long term macro effects are still lingering. There are still some companies to benefit from low oil and covid shrapnel but personally, I can ill afford to be caught again. I’m not scared I’m just leery that the landscape of our economy has changed and is still changing. This is definitely challenging for the casual investors
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:22 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:16 am to Lgrnwd
quote:
I even heard more than one person say they were thinking of taking a HELOC to dump it all in the market right now. Because they know they can at least triple their money buying stocks at their current levels.
Yes, I’ve read things like that here and on other forums. Do you remember the news story about the guy in India (I believe) who stuck his head in a tiger’s mouth? When the big cat clamped down, no one bothered to intervene. When a reporter asked the bystanders why they didn’t try to help the (now) dead man, they all basically said, “damn fool deserved what he got for being stupid.”
Same here. I have no sympathy for YOLO type people.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:37 pm to hikingfan
The Cat Be Dead.
1. Rebalancing of portfolios by fund managers will terminate Tuesday at the end of the quarter, which will eliminate a major flow into equities.
2. Price of oil will crash in a few days once there are no places to store it and this will crush the stock market in a way that will make the 2015-16 Oil Price Shock look like child's play.
3. Earnings will start coming in within days and downgrades will follow.
4. Unemployment will skyrocket and consumer confidence will crater within days.
5. Oh yeah, there is a pandemic.
"Houston, the rocket ship has a problem."
1. Rebalancing of portfolios by fund managers will terminate Tuesday at the end of the quarter, which will eliminate a major flow into equities.
2. Price of oil will crash in a few days once there are no places to store it and this will crush the stock market in a way that will make the 2015-16 Oil Price Shock look like child's play.
3. Earnings will start coming in within days and downgrades will follow.
4. Unemployment will skyrocket and consumer confidence will crater within days.
5. Oh yeah, there is a pandemic.
"Houston, the rocket ship has a problem."
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:17 am to hikingfan
I think by weeks end we will be retesting last weeks lows.
But that is just IMHO, take it for what an anonymous opinion is worth.
But that is just IMHO, take it for what an anonymous opinion is worth.
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