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re: Is it time to short Bitcoin ?

Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:56 am to
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Transactions take minutes to hours, not seconds.


And the wild fluctuations in the value make for a horrible currency. Imagine selling a car at 9am for $50,000 which you accepted the equivalency in bitcoin and by the end of business that day, the value of bitcoin drops 5% or 10% ! You just lost that much on that sale!

Accepting bitcoin as a currency for any legitimate business is totally irresponsible. As an underground currency, it can make sense if you’re okay with the risk. Let’s say you deal in a trade that is sensitive to currency being traced. You’d want to stear clear of the USD or find a way to launder it which can be a huge hassle. One way around that is to trade in bitcoin, convert to another currency and then another before eventually converting to stable USD. you can avoid the typical laundering process that way.
This is why bitcoin is popular with illegal activity. It’s one reason why I don’t want to own it. Building up its value helps the underground usage and that is immoral.

I admit to having fomo though so I’ve bought it and profited from it. God have mercy on me
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
20712 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

I wish there was a way to even know if the current valuation is reasonable

How would you do this for gold?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43188 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 4:57 pm to
it seems to work as an alternative currency that easily crosses international borders while remaining a tradeable commodity with high demand. How many people do you know that trade USD on the currency exchanges?

there’s a legitimate use for it the size of which will eventually solely be determined by the willingness of the buyer to accept it as payment. And in those transactions both the buyer and the seller are at risk which could possibly drive the cost of the sale down (eventually)

more options for commerce is always better
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 5:00 pm
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

How would you do this for gold?


I’m not a big gold bug but I know there are measures of know reserves and there’s known usage so I’m guessing someone’s keeping track of that.

The question I have is why bitcoin is valued at 98,000 get gold is only $2,500 per ounce…?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43188 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

The question I have is why bitcoin is valued at 98,000
greed and mania
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
20712 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

I’m not a big gold bug but I know there are measures of know reserves and there’s known usage so I’m guessing someone’s keeping track of that.

The value of gold isn't based on its usage. The value of gold in use is determined by the value of gold. In other words, take jewelry for example - the price of gold jewelry goes up/down with the price of gold. The price of gold does not go up/down as a function of supply/demand for jewelry.

The value of gold is derived from its use as a financial asset, store of value/hedge against inflation.
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 5:09 pm
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
3595 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:35 pm to
quote:

quote: Do you really think the US government wants to undermine its own currency? How would that undermine the USD?


How could could it do anything other than undermine the USD?

At the most fundamental level you have the govt printing additional money to purchase bitcoin, which in turn runs up the price of bitcoin. If that occurs everyone else on the planet starts trading their US treasuries for BTC.
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
7587 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:39 pm to
quote:

The question I have is why bitcoin is valued at 98,000 get gold is only $2,500 per ounce…?


That's a good question. Why would you pay 2500 per ounce for a dense matl that is virtually worthless to you, and has practically a never ending supply; when you could buy btc at 98,000, which is absolutely finite,and you could bring it around the world with you in your pocket, or send it to the other side of the world in a minute.

Btc seems superior to gold in just about every way but volatility at this point. I understand thats the point of the discussion, but btc is less volatile as time moves forward; I have some gold in my safe, and I own btc. The gold feels alot dumber to have not gonna lie.
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 5:44 pm
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:58 pm to
quote:

That's a good question. Why would you pay 2500 per ounce for a dense matl that is virtually worthless to you, and has practically a never ending supply; when you could buy btc at 98,000, which is absolutely finite,and you could bring it around the world with you in your pocket, or send it to the other side of the world in a minute.


Baloney.
Years ago, when I held actual gold (y2k mania) I used real gold as a currency so I know it has real value.

I have zero use for bitcoin and I suspect you don’t either
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 6:02 pm
Posted by Norway
Member since Aug 2024
995 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:57 pm to
quote:


I can’t imagine a scarier thing to do


Down 3,000.
Norway should have trusted his gut.
Shorted TSLA !for the W.

Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
8774 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:58 pm to
Speculating performance of an incredibly speculative asset? Especially downward speculation as a pro-crypto admin take office?

Good luck man. You could be right, but it’s sure as hell not a bet I’m willing to take.
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
3595 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 7:36 pm to
quote:

I have zero use for bitcoin and I suspect you don’t either


Honestly, I find the most damning aspect of bitcoin to be that everyone with bitcoin seems pretty open they don’t see any practical use for it.

Long gone are the days of endless conversations to validate crypto and discussing the importance of white papers or testing use cases.

The depth of discussion now seems unhealthy. BTC is the most trusted... Buy it, put it in cold storage, trade it back for more USD at a later date, then buy Lambo.
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
7587 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

Baloney.
Years ago, when I held actual gold (y2k mania) I used real gold as a currency so I know it has real value.

I have zero use for bitcoin and I suspect you don’t either


You can convert it into any currency you want, when you want, pretty easily from your phone without going anywhere.

My use for it is digital gold, I look at it much like I look at the gold I own. It's a better version in ways, as it's absolutely finite, and every transaction is visible. It is ultra convenient to store, move, exchange, buy and sell, from your phone, anywhere. Control of it is decentralized. It has too much volatility to be considered a store of wealth at this time, but it's getting there in my opinion, in the meantime, I bought about half of what I own around 20-30k and the other half in the 50-60 range so im not complaining. I started to buy and understand during covid when we were sending everyone checks to do nothing and had zirp; I went searching for what the relief valve of this crazy arse monetary and fiscal policy was going to be. I bought gold as well at that time, but there isn't really any other truly finite asset like btc in the world. The only thing I can compare it to is artwork or desirable real estate in a specific area or network in that regard.

I have no problem with people who don't understand why its valuable. I would also say you should probably allocate something more than 0% to btc.
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 8:01 pm
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:01 pm to
quote:

I have no problem with people who don't understand why its valuable.


Of course you don’t. No one has a problem with that.
As I’ve posted already, I have fomo just like you and have owned it and profited on it. It was a trade and nothing more. I didn’t want to miss out. I suspect it’s the same for you.

Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:13 pm to
quote:

You can convert it into any currency you want, when you want, pretty easily from your phone without going anywhere.



Actually not entirely true. There’s been some issues with the exchanges over the years and you should know that.

And further, once converted to the USD, I’m using USD to buy things, not bitcoin.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13560 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:14 pm to
quote:

think I can remember a time where things were more bullish.


Why?
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
20712 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:03 pm to
quote:

Honestly, I find the most damning aspect of bitcoin to be that everyone with bitcoin seems pretty open they don’t see any practical use for it.

Most BTC holders find practical use in BTC as a financial asset but I'm guessing that's not "practical" in the context of your statement.
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 9:07 pm
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
47266 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:42 pm to
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
20712 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:50 pm to
Cute meme.

Are you the guy that argued a few weeks ago that the value of gold was based on its use in jewelry and industrial applications?
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
47266 posts
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:53 pm to
Gold will always have intrinsic value based on jewelry and industrial use. Society couldn't really exist without it. At least modem society which relies on gold in electronics to function.

Bitcoin the world would be better off without it. Since it uses a massive amount of electricity amounting to a cell on a spreadsheet
This post was edited on 11/25/24 at 9:56 pm
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