re: Investing In Tesla

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I'd say my biggest concern in the short-term, meaning next year is TSLA actually hitting its projected gross margins on 25% on the model 3. I read all the reasons they are supposed to be hitting them this year but I just can't see them getting that sort of efficiency the first year of a mass car rollout in the volume magnitude of 6-10x their current year production.

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It's very likely that there's going to be some ups and downs in the short term, but anyone with the cash and patience for a longer term buy is gonna make some serious money. It's definitely more than a car company, I don't care what some analysts are saying. Tesla is setting itself up to dominate the electric car sector with its gigafactory and their recharging network throughout the country. It's not much of a gamble if you're at least somewhat long on it

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I mean oil isn't going anywhere, its still used in a bajillion things other than cars but I think when we look back in 100 years and see that we used to dig up oil,refine it, and pump it into cars to power them we will laugh as we can also power cars using the sun and solar panels. It's sad when you see oil spills, that tanker truck explosion posted in the OT a few weeks ago, and dangerous things that come from oil.

Is tesla perfect today? no its not, hell its charging stations still rely on fossil fuels, but the long term goal obviously is solar panels powering the charging stations to charge the cars. It's not stuff thats going to happen overnight, but to me its the biggest power shift of our lifetime and tesla has an incredible product to lead the charge at this point. I wish other auto companies would follow suit but after being bearish for a long time, I finally understood why big auto doesn't/ can't.

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Looking at Tesla as a tech company is a good idea. When I look at Tesla I can only associate them with growth. Every dollar goes back into that business. The gigafactory is such a huge endeavor, Panasonic was smart to side with Elon. Baby steps but the super charger network is such a cool idea and seems to be working well, and it's only expanding around the world. I could type paragraphs but it would be a waste of time

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Lots of that electricity will be made with the shite tons of stupid cheap NG we are sitting on.

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No doubt, and LA will still be broke while the oil companies rape the state of it's natural resources.

back to the guy who said tesla wouldn't be around without subsidies.....

It's sort of true that Tesla wouldn't exist without clean air incentives. They would have never attempted it. Why bother with it? Cars in general would be a lot dirtier without various rules and regulations and such. I'm from originally from CA and if you look at pictures of LA in the 50s, it had smog as bad as the big cities in china today, it was awful till we began to regulate pollution standards in the US.Big auto didn't fix CA smog, CA did via clean air regulations.

Big auto did their thing: Big auto opposed the clean air regulation improvements every step of the way, of course. Point being the car industry has long history of needing regulations and incentives to keep them from killing people and needlessly drowning cities in smog. ZEVs are just of the more modern implementations of these goals. System works, China is copying it and setting more ambitious EV standards

are they really building 4 in miami? I wanted to lease one for my vacation home there a year ago, but the only supercharger close by was like 30 minutes north of miami near ft lauderdale. I didn't see any superchargers on the way to the keys and I had to have a car capable of driving to naples, the keys,orlando when we were down there. If they ever built one on the way to the keys I would definitely lease one for down there.

I also believe with the infrastructure in place tesla will one day be charging non-tesla's to charge at their stations, nothing confirmed, but a guess if I had to make one. I find it hard to believe every automaker is gonna invest in a network of chargers when they probably won't mass produce BEV's

either way its a massive paradigm shift coming imo, i could be wrong who knows, but the people ive spoken with who own teslas cant fathom going back to a non-tesla. Tesla sold more $100k+ cars than anyone last year, extrapolate that dominance into cheaper sectors and I dont see how they wouldn't outsell any brand in any segment if they could produce the quantity of vehicle needed. They cant now but elon promised plans for 3 more gigafactories this year......

That's awesome, I do see this company called evercharge has a few boxes at my condo there, but I spoke with an owner and he pays but it's just a few bucks no biggie but yea you can't go to the keys and back as is. One guy I spoke with had a p100d he told me the 320 miles was highway miles and he got over 500 miles on a charge as long as it was in the city bc of the regenerative braking.

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That's awesome, I do see this company called evercharge has a few boxes at my condo there, but I spoke with an owner and he pays but it's just a few bucks no biggie but yea you can't go to the keys and back as is. One guy I spoke with had a p100d he told me the 320 miles was highway miles and he got over 500 miles on a charge as long as it was in the city bc of the regenerative braking.

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Jeez, if that's true that would last me a month. And even paying a 3rd party to charge is much cheaper than buying gas

Another interesting note, my friend works at the Naples dealer and posted a few days back:

"Model S 100D is going up $5,000 and Model S P100D is going up $5,500. Model X 100D is going up $1,000 and P100D is going up $9,500 - all taking effect on 4/24. We have had a flood of orders these last few days before pricing changes. (75 and 90 battery pack sizes went down in price)"

Hiking the prices up after out selling the S-Class because they know people will continue to buy more. Pretty ballsy

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They cant now but elon promised plans for 3 more gigafactories this year......

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I didn't know that. Well he'll be 96 gigfactories away from powering the world supposedly

Great insight, I appreciate posts such as these. Just wish your recommendations (Tesla & Wynn) weren't so expensive to own for recent graduates.

I am curious to hear what you think is the biggest weakness for Tesla.

Look I was a gigantic tesla bear early on, the whole concept sounded novel and dumb. I spend a ton of time reading, all sorts of stuff investment related. I read a ton of bullish/bearish pieces but at the end of the day after all my reading I realized that the only reason big auto doesn't have a whole fleet of EV's ready to compete is bc simply they cannot. The shackles of the industry are dragging them down, and until they're able to dump off all these franchised car dealers they wont ever be able to compete.

Its funny that so many congressmen and senators own these big car dealerships and oddly enough thats why they're opposed to tesla's direct sales model bc it just wrecks their world.

Big auto has a big problem and its their current model which calls for $30M in dead money to sit around a dealership while tesla has 1 fully loaded model of each car at their dealers. Big auto relies on service to profit while tesla relies on sales of batteries to profit. Big auto can't figure out how to profit on batteries while keeping their dealers in place, its quite a conundrum but those lack of shackles is why tesla is going to dominate imo. They don't have to worry about all the problems big auto deals with.

It's definitely the most fascinating story of our lifetimes imo, will we as a society really shift away from the gas powered engine? If you look at it, the gas engine hasn't really improved much over the last 20 years, its been nominal improvements while big auto touts things like bluetooth and sound systems as their big upgrades. Tesla meanwhile started in 2007 and launched the model S in 2012 and 5 years later improved the battery so much that its the worlds fastest car now, who the hell saw that coming in 2012? Nobody

There's a monster tech battle coming and as an investor do you want your money on Elon Musk(Tesla) or Mary Barra(GM) or Mark Fields(Ford).....I think that question answers itself and its almost comical to think of a tech battle of musk vs barra even being a legit thing. Thats why I scratch my head when people want to go long ford or gm and call them undervalued and tesla overvalued. Mobileye just sold its trash software for $15B, Tesla dropped them to develop their own tesla vision software......Id venture that alone is worth way over the $15B mobileye got so when you see the market cap of tesla at $50B to me it still seems cheap while every pundit on tv rants about how wildly expensive it is vs a ford or gm.

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dabigfella

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maybe its time to start looking at the options again for me... I need my NKE to get to $56.50 so I can dump it and start looking for an entry again.

You nailed me there Brussels, all the morsels of advice I put in this this thread and one typo and you just solved the mystery of the year. The scam known as dabigfella will now unravel. Congratulations on all your fine work. Thanks for adding real insight to the thread.