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Message
re: Inflation still a problem....
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:49 pm to Bard
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:49 pm to Bard
And you are the only person that knows this information and can factor that into their decision? If you can accurately predict market movements you should quit whatever your day job is and do that full time while maximizing leverage and likely would be a billionaire in no time.
The marker is unpredictable short term no matter what news and indicators you think exist. The only thing that I have any confidence in is that it will be higher in 5+ years than it is today. We are also seeing near record profits and profit margins currently. No one likes talking about that info and everyone focuses on the downward forward expectations. The issue is that the market generally bottoms way before the economy.
The marker is unpredictable short term no matter what news and indicators you think exist. The only thing that I have any confidence in is that it will be higher in 5+ years than it is today. We are also seeing near record profits and profit margins currently. No one likes talking about that info and everyone focuses on the downward forward expectations. The issue is that the market generally bottoms way before the economy.
2
Posted on 9/14/22 at 9:15 pm to BearsFan
quote:
Have your money somewhere safe (whatever currency holds up) and escape to whatever the next good place to live is
I would bet good money that someone will maintain at least some semblance of order and civilization somewhere.
Argentina, Japan, France, and Turkey are all possible regional powers in the event that the U.S. goes down and the world becomes every man for himself. They’ve got the manpower, the resources, and the intestinal fortitude to tell everyone else to suck it while they watch out for their own interests.
The best play might not be to go directly to them, though. Rather, you might want to shoot for a tax haven nearby. Monaco, Malta, Singapore, etc. would all be good backup plans for someone with the means to make sure they didn’t have to start over from scratch.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 9:30 pm to bod312
quote:
Except the indicators haven’t change so he thinks it will go lower than 4000 and doesn’t buy.
And it ended the day still below 4000, soooo... yeah.
Speaking of which, the S&P is down 17% YTD while I'm up 16% YTD so I must me doing something right.
Your FOMO doesn't impact what I see.
quote:
And you are the only person that knows this information and can factor that into their decision? If you can accurately predict market movements you should quit whatever your day job is and do that full time while maximizing leverage and likely would be a billionaire in no time.
The marker is unpredictable short term no matter what news and indicators you think exist.
Anyone who is paying attention can see this. Bookmark this for December and we'll compare notes.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:30 am to frogtown
quote:
What would earnings be/have been over the last 13 years if the discount rate wasn't 0.50% over most of that span.
Huh?
The discount rate doesn’t impact earnings in that kind of way. The discount rate helps figure out the P, but it doesn’t impact the E.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:31 am to Bard
quote:
Speaking of which, the S&P is down 17% YTD while I'm up 16% YTD so I must me doing something right.
Give us your holdings and lay out your last 10 years to see how you’ve done…
Look, congrats on owning utilities and energy stocks and significantly underperforming the market the last decade.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 7:33 am
Posted on 9/15/22 at 7:40 am to slackster
quote:
Huh?
The discount rate doesn’t impact earnings in that kind of way. The discount rate helps figure out the P, but it doesn’t impact the E.
"Higher interest rates tend to negatively affect earnings and stock prices (with the exception of the financial sector)."
investopedia
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 7:42 am
Posted on 9/15/22 at 9:40 am to bod312
quote:
f the "empire" falls, your deed/title will be worthless. Hope you have enough means to defend from the next person and their potential army who wants it. If the "empire" falls the last thing I am worried about is property taxes.
Not thinking mad max apocalypse more like Great Depression 2.0. Lose job can’t afford current home etc. at least with some rural land that’s paid for and enough money to cover the taxes you have a shot at homesteading till things turn around. Instead of jumping out the window since your stocks are worthless and that was the majority of your wealth.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 9:47 am to bod312
quote:
The issue is that the market generally bottoms way before the economy.
Yeah actually it's the opposite
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:02 am to slackster
quote:
Give us your holdings and lay out your last 10 years to see how you’ve done…
Look, congrats on owning utilities and energy stocks and significantly underperforming the market the last decade.
Sure, just call my 1-900 number. $5.95 the first minute, $.50 for every minute after (and I stutter a lot).
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:19 am to slackster
quote:
The discount rate helps figure out the P, but it doesn’t impact the E.
It affects the E greatly, especially when you're a cashflow nightmare and you can't roll your debt at AAA spreads.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:04 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
quote:
The issue is that the market generally bottoms way before the economy.
Yeah actually it's the opposite
Forbes
quote:
Stocks have usually bottomed about six months before the economy but have bottomed as much as ten months before the economic decline is over.
quote:
Waiting for the economy to bottom has historically been a mistake, though. Stocks have typically been 28% above their trough by the time the economy bottoms. In eleven out of the last twelve recessions, the S&P 500 has bottomed before the recession is over. The only outlier was the 2001 recession which was associated with the bursting of the technology bubble.
I actually first heard it on a podcast and this was just the first link on the google search for reference.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:24 am to bod312
You're including federal government intervention post-facto in your analysis. Stocks bottom after government intervenes to soften the deflationary blow. I don't even want to get into the underlying market dynamics that make that article vitrually worthless that people need to consider when it comes to equity returns.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:27 am to Billzbobo
It will be a problem until they are serious about rate increases.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:38 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
It affects the E greatly, especially when you're a cashflow nightmare and you can't roll your debt at AAA spreads.
I understand that, but it doesn’t have a direct impact on it like the guy implied. If you’re discounting cash flows, you’re trying to determine the price to pay for expected earnings. Also, we’re talking about the S&P 500, so credit, while important, isn’t exactly junk status.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:40 am to Bard
quote:
Sure, just call my 1-900 number. $5.95 the first minute, $.50 for every minute after (and I stutter a lot).
The point is telling us you’re up 17% YTD as proof that you know what you’re doing is useless without A) real proof, B) a track record of success, and C) proactive advice.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:45 am to slackster
How many companies in the S&P 500 are profitable at 6-7% interest rates? I bet it's not as high as most people think.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:21 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
You're including federal government intervention post-facto in your analysis. Stocks bottom after government intervenes to soften the deflationary blow. I don't even want to get into the underlying market dynamics that make that article vitrually worthless that people need to consider when it comes to equity returns.
This response sure seems like, "this time is different."
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:32 pm to slackster
quote:
The point is telling us you’re up 17% YTD as proof that you know what you’re doing is useless without A) real proof, B) a track record of success, and C) proactive advice.
That's just it, I don't have any driving need to prove it to anyone. I've mentioned in numerous posts some of the things I'm in and moves I've made. If someone is interested enough they can do the research on their own.
Karma is a bitch though. Ever since I went heavier into energy I've been beating the market (positive days were more positive, negative days were less negative) but less than 24 hours after bragging that I'm doing better than the market, I'm getting reamed like a porn star.
My only saving grace today is TSLA is finally starting to come back after the split.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 1:36 pm to bod312
It's always different every time
Posted on 9/15/22 at 2:46 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
How many companies in the S&P 500 are profitable at 6-7% interest rates? I bet it's not as high as most people think.
6-7% on what? Corporate bonds, Fed funds rate, treasuries?
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