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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 9/13/22 at 11:27 am to Niner
quote:
AKA "This time is different"
So all of the prior inflationary periods were preceded by a decade of expansive QE topped off by a six-ish month period where the federal government literally dumped trillions of free cash into the economy via stimmy checks?
#TIL
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:27 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I wonder if there were people like you during the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Are you seriously saying what we are about to experience will rival the collapse of the Roman Empire?Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:28 pm to Bard
quote:"A straw man fallacy occurs when one counters an argument with an exaggerated and inaccurate version of that argument."
So all of the prior inflationary periods were preceded by a decade of expansive QE topped off by a six-ish month period where the federal government literally dumped trillions of free cash into the economy via stimmy checks?
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:58 pm to Niner
quote:
"A straw man fallacy occurs when one counters an argument with an exaggerated and inaccurate version of that argument."
Which specific part(s) of my statement do you consider exaggerated and/or inaccurate and why do you consider them inaccurate?
Please show your work in the space provided below.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 2:29 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Historically, people regretted selling great assets in a high inflationary environments especially when they moved to cash.
Just a matter of how much you want to lose to inflation.
Invest in stocks and potentially lose double digits or cash and lose maybe 4-5% to inflation
Remember, people can cut their expenses and greatly reduce their hit to inflation too.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:26 pm to Bard
quote:I'll try and make this simple.
Which specific part(s) of my statement do you consider exaggerated and/or inaccurate and why do you consider them inaccurate?
I'm not trying to be hurtful, but your statement is the epitome of exaggerating the impact of specificity of circumstances on the broader outlook. Your statement is the epitome of the losing perspective that "this time is different" and you should do something drastic and emotional and inconsistent with the historical behavior of the markets and economy.
Just because inflationary periods have not historically been caused by the exact sequence of events you mention in your statement (10 years QE and then six months gov't overspending) doesn't mean this inflationary period won't likely end the same way the rest have...a recovery both in the markets and economy eventually. How long will it take? I have no clue. Will it get worse before it gets better? Maybe (it certainly has today). Do I think my portfolio will be higher in 5 years than it is right now? Absolutely.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:39 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Remember, people can cut their expenses and greatly reduce their hit to inflation too.
Long-Term Fixed Debt is another good inflation hedge a common man can have.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 3:40 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Invest in stocks and potentially lose double digits or cash and lose maybe 4-5% to inflation
One of these is permanent and the other is temporary.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:31 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Long-Term Fixed Debt is another good inflation hedge a common man can have.
Exactly. I am never throwing additional money toward the principal on my 3.875%.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 4:55 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
But the highs we had were never real. Just a result of us printing an insane amount of cash and people had nowhere to put it.
I think is the part that people miss, don't understand, or simply want to ignore. The market has been artificially inflated by the Fed since the '08 collapse. Look at the charts pre-08 and post-08. We were always going to have to pay for that mismanagement. If they had pulled the liquidity early like they should have around 2010, we would be in much better shape.
I hope it's not as bad as I think it could be. My worst case is a pullback to '08 levels.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:54 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:Please tell me you mean in terms of percentage drop and not literally back to 1,000 on the S&P 500...
My worst case is a pullback to '08 levels.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:00 pm to Niner
quote:i mean, it’s not such an absurd thought. QE wasn’t ever really stopped since starting up in 08. We’ve been mainlining adrenaline ever sincequote:Please tell me you mean in terms of percentage drop and not literally back to 1,000 on the S&P 500...
My worst case is a pullback to '08 levels
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:12 pm to Niner
quote:
Are you seriously saying what we are about to experience will rival the collapse of the Roman Empire?
Even if it is what am I supposed to do? Somehow luckily guess what the next empire is and go invest there?
Kinda feel like I am stuck investing here.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:57 pm to I Love Bama
quote:And we haven't stopped printing
Regardless, we have been leaning on the money printer for far too long and it appears those days are over. There will be implications that go along with that.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 10:22 pm to Niner
quote:
literally back to 1,000 on the S&P 500.
This is what I mean.
The ‘08 crash was due to the federal gov’t inflating the housing market. This time, they’ve inflated the ENTIRE market. Nearly 15 years of inflation is coming home and there’s nothing they can do to stop it.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 4:40 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
literally back to 1,000 on the S&P 500.
quote:So the worst stock market crash (~79%) since The Great Crash starting in 1929 (~86%)...
This is what I mean.
I continue to be amazed at the perspectives of this site.
Are we in a bad spot economically? Yes. Are the markets in a bad spot? Yes. Is it as bad as the fall of the Roman Empire or the beginning of one of the worst economic periods in the history of our country? Uh...no.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:39 am to Niner
quote:
I continue to be amazed at the perspectives of this site.
Are we in a bad spot economically? Yes. Are the markets in a bad spot? Yes. Is it as bad as the fall of the Roman Empire or the beginning of one of the worst economic periods in the history of our country? Uh...no.
That is what makes it a market.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:50 am to Niner
The S&P high was in late ‘07 and roughly 1,600. The 2021 high was roughly 4,700. My worst case has it pulling back to somewhere around 2k. Will it? Probably not, but that’s the value of the market prior to the feds inflating it. One can reasonably conclude that it would go back to that value if they turned the spigot off.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:41 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
One can reasonably conclude that it would go back to that value if they turned the spigot off.
Are companies not far more profitable? The P hasn’t gone up nearly as high as the E has since then.
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