re: How much longer will the Energy Sector have legs?

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I hope you are correct(about supply/demand working itself out), but oil futures for July up big today.

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There are a lot of variables out there beyond the policies that President* Biden put into place, but getting Biden in hobbles will certainly help unkink the hose.

Through the end of the year would be my guess. 2nd and 3rd quarter profits are going to be off the charts.

Check https://oilprice.com/ regularly.

There are a handful of doomer articles but the majority support oil (currently in the low $120’s) getting up to $140-$150 or more before demand destruction and possible recession starts bringing it down.

I think we’re close to the top but not quite there yet.

I bought into the oil sector bigly (for me) also in March 2020 when oil was
-$30 brl, and anticipate selling it all within the next couple of months trying to time as close to the top as I can without waiting too long.

Bullish factors:

Ukraine war - EU sanctions on Russian oil

Biden policies - driving prices up by restricting domestic supply

China - loosening Covid lockdowns this summer should increase global demand

Normal seasonal demand peak coming with more travel in the summer.



Eventual bearish factors :

Price gets high enough to start demand destruction - people stop traveling / too expensive

Recession entered causes demand destruction

The spike in oil prices feels sticky so these stocks could stay high and CVX and XOM could shake off some nice dividends for a while. My view is that we're entering the peak in shale production and we could enter a decline phase without any major reserve replacement projects anywhere on the horizon...so even if a move to alternatives were to occur, the decline in oil demand will be offset by a decline in supply.

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I'm having PTSD from not selling Boeing, Airline & Cruise stocks in Fall of 2021 when they were double what they are now.

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Same here.

Difference with the oil/energy stocks is they’re also paying healthy dividends, whereas BA and all the travel stocks weren’t. (I’m kicking myself for not liquidating those positions)

Someone who bought cvx and xom at the bottom are yielding 10%.

I have huge positions in oil and am debating if/when to sell, but those dividends make it a tough decision.

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Check LINK regularly.

There are a handful of doomer articles but the majority support oil (currently in the low $120’s) getting up to $140-$150 or more before demand destruction and possible recession starts bringing it down.

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I like that source. They have a couple really good contributors whom I read regularly and appear to be on top of on-going developments in the energy sector.

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So they were lying?

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I'd say the vast majority of people throwing around that phrase just aren't informed and probably don't know what they mean when they use it.

Do they think we weren't importing oil, or do they use it thinking we were simply a net exporter of petroleum products?

Refiners still needed to import oil even during the Trump Administration.

We were a net exporter of total petroleum in 2020 and in 2021; however, we were still always a net crude oil importer.

We were not "independent" of imports for our energy needs and consumption.

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So our energy industry was in no way better during those times they claim we were energy independent?

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I never said that. Of course it had much more stability overall.

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I never said that. Of course it had much more stability overall.

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Oh ok, I’m just curious because people say that we were not energy independent during those years as if to say our energy industry wasn’t different in any way than it is today.