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Message
re: How far is Trump going to let the market / bond fall
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:17 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:17 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Are you going to try and argue that the general public’s reaction to the market in 2022 was anything comparable to the sky screaming going on currently? They have not even been close to similar.
Absolutely.
It was the worst market for bonds in decades, Nasdaq fell nearly 40%, S&P was down over 20% at the lows, etc. I do this for a living and my clients were panicking far more in 2022 than they have with this Trump-induced downturn.
If you want to go off of anecdotes, I’d say this year has been pleasant for clients and 2022 was a disaster - quite the opposite of what you’re trying to suggest.
1
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:19 pm to IMSA_Fan
I’m by no means an economist, but he’s only been president like 3 months. Did people think he was going to be able to instantly “fix” things? Bringing back manufacturing to the US was never going to be quick.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:33 pm to Rick9Plus
People aren’t angry that he hasn’t fixed things, they are angry he’s broken things that weren’t broken.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:37 pm to IMSA_Fan
Short term pain, long term gain
Posted on 4/21/25 at 6:47 pm to slackster
Then the public you deal with and the public I deal with are very, very different, for better or for worse. The ones I deal with generally had no idea 2022 s&p was down ~19% let alone up over 20% the last two years. Yet, they are acutely aware of where things stand right now.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 7:41 pm to TheWalrus
Whats been broken?
Posted on 4/21/25 at 7:45 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
People aren’t angry that he hasn’t fixed things, they are angry he’s broken things that weren’t broken.
Can you fix one without at least short-term messing up the other? The market is up when corporate profits are up. When companies outsource labor via Chinese factories, Indian call centers, etc., labor costs go down enabling profits to go up. But we also end up with a lot of people who would be otherwise working going on public assistance. Can we really have it all? By all I mean a population who takes pride in their work/homes/communities as well as record high corporate profits? How do we bring back manufacturing and jobs without things like tariffs or other measures that will decrease corporate profits in the short term? And by short term, it would have to take at least a few years to take effect, wouldn’t it? Like i said, i’m no expert, i’m asking.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 8:14 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Then the public you deal with and the public I deal with are very, very different, for better or for worse. The ones I deal with generally had no idea 2022 s&p was down ~19% let alone up over 20% the last two years. Yet, they are acutely aware of where things stand right now.
Maybe it has to do with the timing and relatively self-inflicted nature of 2025. This entire drop has centered around tax season.
If it is the way you say it is, my suspicion is that is because tariffs = short term bad is relatively easy for people to correlate, but explaining/understanding why fighting inflation with rising interest rates means basically everything they own is falling precipitously is more difficult to comprehend.
For example, gold cratered through the fall 2022 stock lows despite 18 months of strong inflation. Now we’re looking at moderate to low inflation yet gold is soaring. That’s not intuitive to the average Joe. Things that were supposed to hedge inflation simply didn’t work (outside of I Bond
). 
Posted on 4/21/25 at 8:17 pm to Rick9Plus
quote:
But we also end up with a lot of people who would be otherwise working going on public assistance.
This isn’t fricking skilled labor we’re talking about here. The people that want to work in this country are working. There’s no market here for sweatshop labor.
And before you say manufacturing, it’s automated. Creates about as many jobs as a data center which is very few.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 8:19 pm to Rick9Plus
quote:
Can we really have it all? By all I mean a population who takes pride in their work/homes/communities as well as record high corporate profits? How do we bring back manufacturing and jobs without things like tariffs or other measures that will decrease corporate profits in the short term? And by short term, it would have to take at least a few years to take effect, wouldn’t it?
You have to also genuinely wonder if it can be done at all. For example - With modern technology is manufacturing really going to be the job creator it used to be, or will the current standard of living in the US mean robots are more cost effective in the intermediate to long term?
Posted on 4/21/25 at 8:34 pm to tbo
quote:
He's got issues politically if he's losing someone like me and he is quickly.
Trump's problem is he has valid arguments on things to fix and focus on but seems to be trying to do everything at once.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 8:37 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
quote:
Why is this a constant refrain.
Because it is a pretty great example of the power of media driven hysteria and its role in public perception
They'll be ones bitching the loudest about income disparity, wealth gap. and rich getting richer for buying low and profiting on the rebound. Can't win with the clowns so why try.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 9:28 pm to FLObserver
quote:
Trump's problem is he has no legitimate plan.
FIFY
Posted on 4/21/25 at 10:28 pm to Rick9Plus
quote:
But we also end up with a lot of people who would be otherwise working going on public assistance.
There are 500k manufacturing jobs waiting for people to fill them in this country.
Someone here mentioned earlier that it took hyundai like 5+ years to hire ~4k people at their alabama plant.
Posted on 4/22/25 at 2:50 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:All im saying is that the man has lied a ton. He gave you no real reasons how he would improve the economy except tariffs. People voted and then days after the election, the number one search was "what are tariffs". Another top search was "who pays for tarrifs". Another top search was "how do I change my vote". It's not snobbish to say people are stupid when these are the search terms literally days after the voting was over.
I’m not defending tariffs, but snobbery like this is why dems lost every swing state and got shellacked among low and middle income Americans.
Vote for whomever you want, but got damn people, how in the world did you get duped by Trump again?
Posted on 4/22/25 at 3:37 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
He better get this shitshow under control within 6-12 months, otherwise the democrats are going to have a fricking field day during the midterm elections.
At this point, idk if he’s capable of reversing course on his plans. If he does, he can save the midterms. If he lets this shite go on for another 6 months, and the economy tanks further and inflation rises, he’s fricking toast
Posted on 4/22/25 at 3:44 am to FLObserver
quote:
He's got issues politically if he's losing someone like me and he is quickly.
My father was a die hard Trump in 2018 and 2024. Wouldn’t say a bad word about him. He admitted to me the other day he thinks Trump is fricking up big time
Posted on 4/22/25 at 4:11 am to TheWalrus
quote:He’s done poorly so far but this is the only thing that keeps me from writing him off. We aren’t privy to what was or wasn’t broken and I take Bessent seriously when he says that he took the job because he was worried that we were on the verge of financial collapse.
People aren’t angry that he hasn’t fixed things, they are angry he’s broken things that weren’t broken.
Being popular with his base is the most important thing in Trump’s life. I’m not ready to say he’s doing any of this just for the fun of pissing people off.
This post was edited on 4/22/25 at 4:19 am
Posted on 4/22/25 at 6:35 am to IMSA_Fan
How far is Trump going to let the market / bond fall
His entire agenda is predicated on lining the bond market up against a brick wall and shooting it in the face. Revitalizing domestic manufacturing can not happen as long as treasuries remain the global reserve asset. What is not clear is if he understands that.
His entire agenda is predicated on lining the bond market up against a brick wall and shooting it in the face. Revitalizing domestic manufacturing can not happen as long as treasuries remain the global reserve asset. What is not clear is if he understands that.
This post was edited on 4/22/25 at 6:41 am
Posted on 4/22/25 at 6:39 am to WicKed WayZ
quote:
At this point, idk if he’s capable of reversing course on his plans. If he does, he can save the midterms. If he lets this shite go on for another 6 months, and the economy tanks further and inflation rises, he’s fricking toast
Important to remember he isn’t up for re-election (stupid trolling aside). There is less political pressure because of that.
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