How EU tariffs could backfire on Trump

Eh, the talking point articles are getting stale. It’s a red flag that every single one is framed as

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could backfire

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and

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U.S. exporters will suffer

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I’ve yet to see one that discusses which side stands to suffer more, because that’s what really matters in any war.

The Canadians have spent three months “sympathizing” with US consumers trying to shift sentiment, yet never address the impact to their own people.

When you think of EU goods you think luxury items, luxury cars, and Airbus. Those are the goods least likely to gain traction with the average consumer. Conversely, US tariffs could effectively turn out the lights for many of those countries.

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Werent there separate deals done with Italy and Poland? or were those just talks.

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Unless I’m misremembering, members of the eurozone aren’t allowed to enter into individual trade agreements. I think it’s a condition of being part of the trade bloc.

Grok:

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US and EU trade balance

In 2024, the U.S. ran a significant trade deficit with the European Union (EU). According to the U.S. Census Bureau and other sources:
Goods Trade:
U.S. imports from the EU: $605.8 billion (€584 billion), up 5.1% from 2023.

U.S. exports to the EU: $370.2 billion (€357 billion), up 0.7% from 2023.

U.S. goods trade deficit with the EU: $235.6 billion, a 12.9% increase from 2023 (€198.2 billion surplus for the EU).

Services Trade:
In 2023, the EU exported €319 billion in services to the U.S. and imported €427 billion, resulting in a €109 billion services trade deficit for the EU.

The U.S. typically maintains a services trade surplus with the EU, estimated at over $100 billion annually.

Overall Trade Balance:
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with the EU was significant, with the goods deficit ($235.6 billion in 2024) partially offset by the services surplus. However, the current account, which includes goods, services, and financial flows, is reportedly closer to balance between the two regions due to U.S. strengths in services and investments.

Total bilateral trade in goods and services between the U.S. and EU was approximately $975.9 billion in 2024, with the EU being the U.S.’s largest trading partner.

Key Observations:
EU exports to the U.S. grew by 44% from 2014 to 2024, compared to a 34% increase in U.S. exports to the EU over the same period.

Major EU exporters to the U.S. include Germany (€157 billion), Italy (€67 billion), and Ireland (€51 billion) in 2023. Top U.S. imports include pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles, and machinery, while U.S. exports to the EU include mineral fuels, machinery, and pharmaceuticals.

The EU’s trade surplus in goods is driven by its strength in industrial machinery and pharmaceuticals, while the U.S. dominates in services, particularly financial services.

Context and Policy:
The U.S. trade deficit with the EU has been a point of contention, with proposals for tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel and aluminum) to address it. However, analyses suggest tariffs could raise U.S. inflation and lower GDP without significantly reducing the global U.S. trade deficit.

The EU has responded to tariff threats with potential countermeasures, targeting up to €100 billion in U.S. goods if negotiations fail.

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Could...gives people an out when their predictions fail.

I’d wondered that the climate scientists were up to these days since doge put an end to their taxpayer paid disaster predictions.