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Message
Honda (HMC) - good buy?
Posted on 7/2/16 at 10:06 am
Posted on 7/2/16 at 10:06 am
HMC
Price: $25.12 (2.45% off 52 week low, 30.20% off 52 week high)
Over the last month: -$2.16 (7.92%)
Over the last year: -$7.53 (23.06%)
P/E: 13.43
PEG: 0.61
EPS: $1.87
Projected EPS for next year: $2.88
https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2016/07/01/toyota-u-s-sales-down-in-june-honda-posts-increase.html?ana=yahoo
So sales are good, so why is the stock slumping? Well...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/313k-honda-vehicles-declared-unsafe-121212271.html
If I had the free cash I'd be buying this at $25.12 and selling around $29 (~15% return). The average analyst target price is $30.86.
Are you buying/selling/holding HMC at $25.12?
Price: $25.12 (2.45% off 52 week low, 30.20% off 52 week high)
Over the last month: -$2.16 (7.92%)
Over the last year: -$7.53 (23.06%)
P/E: 13.43
PEG: 0.61
EPS: $1.87
Projected EPS for next year: $2.88
quote:
Toyota’s U.S. sales fell 5.6 percent in June from a year ago despite an extra selling day, while Honda had a 3.2 percent increase in sales for the month...
[Honda] also reached a new June record for light trucks, which gained 2.2 percent on sales of 68,780.
Honda division trucks also set a new June record, jumping 6.6 percent on sales of 61,469 vehicles, while sales of Honda cars rose 7.7 percent to 65,894 units. Acura division sales jumped 26.9 percent to 11,352 units.
For the year to date, sales of Honda and Acura vehicles are up 5.2 percent from the year-earlier period.
On the truck side, sales of CR-V reached a new all-time June record, while Pilot and Odyssey each made notable gains for the month. The all-new 2017 Ridgeline got off to a strong start in its first weeks on the market, notching 2,472 sales after just over one week on the market.
"With the all new Ridgeline pickup and the redesigned Accord Hybrid back in the lineup, we're continuing to expand and strengthen our portfolio as we look toward a third straight year of record results," said Jeff Conrad, senior vice president and general manager of the Honda Division.
https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2016/07/01/toyota-u-s-sales-down-in-june-honda-posts-increase.html?ana=yahoo
So sales are good, so why is the stock slumping? Well...
quote:
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has declared nearly 313,000 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC vehicles to be risky to drive due to unrepaired defective Takata airbags. While the company has notified the owners of the impending recall several times, these Honda and Acura vehicles have not been brought in for repairs.
However, new tests revealed that the airbag inflators of some Honda and Acura vehicles manufactured over the period 2001-2003 have up to 50% chance of exploding while inflating. When these inflators explode, they send metal fragments shooting into the car that may injure or kill occupants. Hence, the NHTSA has advised owners to stop driving these vehicles and bring them in for repairs as soon as possible.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/313k-honda-vehicles-declared-unsafe-121212271.html
If I had the free cash I'd be buying this at $25.12 and selling around $29 (~15% return). The average analyst target price is $30.86.
Are you buying/selling/holding HMC at $25.12?
4
Posted on 7/3/16 at 8:18 am to Jon Ham
I have been wondering this myself this past week - possibly because I bought a Honda myself last month and when I talked to my salesman a few weeks later he said it was a killer May and early June for the dealership.
I think it's undervalued but want to hear other's opinions as well.
I think it's undervalued but want to hear other's opinions as well.
Posted on 7/3/16 at 8:43 am to Tigerstark
See this where you need to learn to utilize selling puts. Ok You like Honda at $25.12? Ok great selling the $25 july puts for .40 right now lets you make basically 1.5% this month or buy it for $24.60 which is even lower than you like right now.
You can't just pay full price, if you like the name, always sell puts there is literally no downside to selling puts vs buying the name unless you think its about to go up 10% or more in the short term otherwise you either buy cheaper or you just profit a nice amount 1-2% a month and move forward onto the next one.
I personally dont like the auto makers at all but thats how id play getting into honda
You can't just pay full price, if you like the name, always sell puts there is literally no downside to selling puts vs buying the name unless you think its about to go up 10% or more in the short term otherwise you either buy cheaper or you just profit a nice amount 1-2% a month and move forward onto the next one.
I personally dont like the auto makers at all but thats how id play getting into honda
Posted on 7/7/16 at 8:59 pm to dabigfella
Sorry I'm just getting back to this thread.
I like your advice, but just don't want to dabble in options. It goes against my philosophy to keep things simple, i.e. just buying into business that I think are good businesses at the right price.
I like the idea of collecting premium but don't like the idea of being forced to buy a stock at an unknown time in the future when currently unknown information comes out or events occur that would make me reevaluate the stock. Not saying options are to be stayed away from by everyone, they're just not for me right now.
I like your advice, but just don't want to dabble in options. It goes against my philosophy to keep things simple, i.e. just buying into business that I think are good businesses at the right price.
I like the idea of collecting premium but don't like the idea of being forced to buy a stock at an unknown time in the future when currently unknown information comes out or events occur that would make me reevaluate the stock. Not saying options are to be stayed away from by everyone, they're just not for me right now.
Posted on 7/8/16 at 8:56 am to Jon Ham
Honda has problems with the transmissions in the Accord, look it up online.
Its impacted a number of owners I know and is pushing them to check out Toyota next go around. Think they started cutting corners to increase profitability and only the perceived quality of their older cars is propping them up at the moment.
Im staying away but can see why others would see an opportunity.
Its impacted a number of owners I know and is pushing them to check out Toyota next go around. Think they started cutting corners to increase profitability and only the perceived quality of their older cars is propping them up at the moment.
Im staying away but can see why others would see an opportunity.
This post was edited on 7/8/16 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 7/8/16 at 5:52 pm to tide06
quote:
Honda has problems with the transmissions in the Accord, look it up online.
Not too sure about that. I've been at the same Honda dealership for 4.5 years and have had minimal cases concerning transmission issues from the Accord.
When the CVT first appeared we had a few issues, but those have long been fixed.
Posted on 7/8/16 at 11:09 pm to Coach Guidry
quote:
Not too sure about that. I've been at the same Honda dealership for 4.5 years and have had minimal cases concerning transmission issues from the Accord.
When the CVT first appeared we had a few issues, but those have long been fixed.
So you arent seeing people coming in with issues with the current version of the auto transmission? Have talked to two different people at the office who've had issues and have been helping my mom with her car search and ran across a good bit of chatter online about it.
You have a great reputation on here so I believe you if you say you dont think its an issue.
Posted on 7/9/16 at 12:51 am to tide06
No offense, but I'd say that JD Power and/or Consumer Reports would be more reliable sources of quality measures than anecdotals found on the internet or daily, peer to peer conversations.
I'm not aware of anything broad happening with Honda or Acura quality that might affect the earnings, sales or stock price. I'm not a buyer of HMC (or any other auto stock) at this stage. But apart from the Takata mess that's catching out quite a few of the majors (including Honda) and the diesel scandals, I just haven't seen any major quality news lately either.
I'm not aware of anything broad happening with Honda or Acura quality that might affect the earnings, sales or stock price. I'm not a buyer of HMC (or any other auto stock) at this stage. But apart from the Takata mess that's catching out quite a few of the majors (including Honda) and the diesel scandals, I just haven't seen any major quality news lately either.
Posted on 7/9/16 at 10:53 am to tide06
quote:
So you arent seeing people coming in with issues with the current version of the auto transmission?
In weekly meetings, current situations or "heat cases" are talked about and handled and I have not heard anything about transmission issues. Not saying the problems do not exist; im just not hearing of any issues locally. I do know we had trouble around 2010 though. For the record, I personally do not own any auto stock. None out there are too appealing.
Posted on 7/12/16 at 12:02 pm to Jon Ham
Although I'm late in mentioning it, if you're interested in auto stocks, FUJHY (Fuji Heavy/Subaru) is one to keep on a watchlist. Toyota bought GM's stake several years ago and they seem to be helping Subaru with some of the heavy lifting. Sales, earnings, quality, resale value, consumer satisfaction... Subaru is currently ticking all the boxes.
I've owned it a couple of times, but have always gotten stopped out because I use trailing stops. IMO, in the mid 60's, it's a good buy. It's in the low 70's again now though. It doesn't pay a dividend, but I like it as a relative long term hold if you're looking for an auto stock.
I've owned it a couple of times, but have always gotten stopped out because I use trailing stops. IMO, in the mid 60's, it's a good buy. It's in the low 70's again now though. It doesn't pay a dividend, but I like it as a relative long term hold if you're looking for an auto stock.
Posted on 8/8/16 at 8:41 am to Jon Ham
quote:
If I had the free cash I'd be buying this at $25.12 and selling around $29 (~15% return).
Passed $29 this morning and is currently sitting at $29.33.
This post was edited on 8/8/16 at 8:42 am
Posted on 8/8/16 at 8:52 am to Jon Ham
Your first two predictions have been killing it
Posted on 8/8/16 at 10:27 am to Jon Ham
I need to start following your posts....
Posted on 8/8/16 at 10:36 am to LSUmajek
Nintendo was a hell of a call to catch the Pokemon pump and dump, but with all due respect to Ham, I wouldn't get too excited about Honda. The BOJ is outright buying up any and all Japanese assets. I'd excersize extreme caution with any Japanese stocks. Just my opinion.
Posted on 8/8/16 at 10:44 pm to LSUmajek
quote:
I need to start following your posts....
I literally just started getting into trading this year. I post my thoughts here in the hopes others with more experience chime in so I can learn.
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