re: Haynesville Shale

quote:

---

Thanks for your reply. As I said, just this morning I was informed that I should develop some "awareness" of the Haynesville Shale. So, in between looking for references online to the Haynesville and checking to see who LSU's opponents would be for the regional this weekend, I came across this thread on tigerdroppings. I never would have expected to find BOTH on this list! Thanks, again.

---

Look at Petrohawk's website. Look under presentations, and their recent IPAA presentation slides. This will show you a map with the prospective area outlined and will give you a general outline of the shale on a log. Chesapeake who has discovered the shale to be producable through horizontal drilling (they weren't the first to drill into it actually), is being much less generous with information. Check out this presentation as well as anything Goodrich Petroleum has released and it should give you a better understanding of the geology and economics.

My father-in-law is one of the landowners. Leasing is $3,250/acre....he'll make some good coin for the forseeable future

quote:

---

I've seen this before in wild cat wells.

---

Is the distance the same for an onshore wildcat well as for off shore?

I have not heard of an IP. There is suppose to be a press release, but that is all that I know. I was wondering if you knew more.

I believe your math is pretty correct, but you also have to figure in LA state severance taxes (I think about 7% right now for these wells until they get even greedier), and you can't assume a gas price of $12. I would probably use $7.00 as a conservative figure. Think of it like this; at $10 gas, a BCF of gas is worth roughly 10 million dollars minus severance taxes. These kinds of recoveries of 25-50 BCF per section are entirely possible. Technology will also evolve, and these shales could be producing for 50-100 years. Production will vary also by section somewhat.

well, i'm just hearing of the haynesville shale discovery. Unfortunately, I live out of town but own 7 acres in the Goldonna area (Natachitoches Parish) so i'm trying to find out any verified information i can. Thank you guys in advance for anything you can share relative to any news near my area.

quote:

---

Production will vary also by section somewhat

---

This is the understatement of the year. What people don't understand is that even in outstanding fields, on average 1 out of 3 wells actually pay off. The type of pay off talked about here is probaly a one in a thousand type well. That being said though, there will be some that hit it big. Not everyone in South Caddo, South Bossier, and DeSoto parish is going to be an instant millionaire.

quote:

---

This is the understatement of the year. What people don't understand is that even in outstanding fields, on average 1 out of 3 wells actually pay off.

---

When they say a well is 222' HV shale, does that mean that the formation is 222 feet "thick"? So the thicker the better? Sorry I don't know much about well terminology.

quote:

---

This is the understatement of the year. What people don't understand is that even in outstanding fields, on average 1 out of 3 wells actually pay off. The type of pay off talked about here is probaly a one in a thousand type well. That being said though, there will be some that hit it big. Not everyone in South Caddo, South Bossier, and DeSoto parish is going to be an instant millionaire.

---

Therein lies the difference in these unconventional gas plays (shale, tight gas). Unlike conventional fields where a minority of the wells will be economic producers, in these repeatable resource plays like shale gas a minority of the wells fail to become economic producers. The reason acreage costs escalate so high is that there is a premium large companies pay for this mitigated dry hole risk. These types of plays are very repeatable and predictable compared to the conventional plays drilled since the 1900's in Louisiana (high permeability). The resource is there and the difficulty is reducing well costs to make the play profitable. There will be very few dry holes drilled in a shale play like this.

quote:

---

I agree with you on that, but people around here (I live in Bossier) are acting like every hole punched in the ground is going to produce 30 million cubic feet of gas a day. I've heard people talking who think the 1 acre they onw in a subdivision is going to make them independently wealthy overnight. Not that a $3,500 pay day up front with a few thousand a year is something to scoff at...

---

I agree with you that very few people really understand what is going on. The key to making a big profit as a landowner or small company is to hold acreage/overriding royalty/royalty interests over large blocks of land, thereby owning interests in a large number of wells. Those people with 1/8 of an acre in town with interests in only a couple of wells are not going to make the fortune they think.