re: For those doubters out there...

quote:

---

i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...

---

You can forget that. It amazes me the people on this board and their doomsday scenarios that are completely ignorant.

For the record, my first post on the money board was in mid March shortly after the market lows. I called in strong terms that this was a turning point (when the fed announced it was buying treasuries to force down mortgage rates). I was called "insane", etc. Especially when I said the housing market would bottom towards the end of the 3rd quarter of this year. I have pulled back on equities twice now and saved about 300 points on the Dow (to put in in simple terms) on my portfolio in the past 30 days. I am close to fully invested again as of COB yesterday.

We will see.

quote:

---

There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??

---

I decided five years ago that I should avoid the stock market and have not touched it since. I didn't bail at the peak, but the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are all considerably lower than five years ago.

I have a hard time visualizing how someone can meet long term financial goals by avoiding the stock market completely. I suppose one could make very high income and have a prodigious savings rate, but that doesn't fit most American saving profiles.

I have increased the equity portion of the portfolio from 40% to ~ 57% YTD, that is it for me, even with dividend cuts the dividend yields were attractive enough for me. My portfolio is big enough that I don't need to expose it to excess risk, like holding up to 90% equity in the past. I wouldn't be shocked to see a ~ 15% to 20% pullback sometime this year, but I don't see the S&P going to 550 or similar.

If you haven't re-entered when do you do it, S&P 1,000? It's like the saying goes with market timing, it might be easy to call the exit but when does one know for sure to get back in? The 200 SMA hasn't indicated a re-entry point.

quote:

---

If you haven't re-entered when do you do it, S&P 1,000?

---

I remember Warren Buffet once said that stocks are the only thing most people only want to buy when they get expensive.

quote:

---

I have a hard time visualizing how someone can meet long term financial goals by avoiding the stock market completely.

---

I bet I have a much better ROI in the last five years than the majority of people who feel the same way you do. But I guess that isn't saying much since someone who stuffs their money in a mattress could say the same thing.

I am all for owning many asset classes, it's just that if one does not buy equities when they are beaten down when will one buy, back at the top? I have silver, cash, TIPS, nominal bonds, muni's, a home and commercial RE with no debt, in addition to global public equity. Cash and fixed income alone aren't going to get it done during the accumulation stage. To each his own, it has worked well for me.

You must be a true believer in the concept that LT equity returns will mirror the past.

I am not so bold along those lines anymore and opt for a lower allocation. I have a friend who will sell you this beauty, SLM, which he bought at $14 years ago, rode it up into the 50's, and it broke $5 today after being in the $3's recently. :beatdeadhorse: He just wouldn't sell it. Oh well, and he wonders why his portfolio declined 68% in 2008. Don't know if he will ever be able to retire with his stock gems.