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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 12/1/14 at 4:06 pm to yellowfin
Ouch.. we use them too, never would've guessed they were hurting that bad
Posted on 12/1/14 at 4:51 pm to TheIndulger
100 million loss last quarter
FCPA violations
FCPA violations
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:29 pm to yellowfin
So basically this company is a floating turd about to get flushed down the toilet not unlike ATP Oil & Gas a few years ago?
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:39 pm to LSUneaux
He's talking about Key
Posted on 12/3/14 at 6:40 pm to LSURussian
Any updates? It's down below $4 a share. Is it dead or is this a buying opportunity?
Posted on 12/3/14 at 7:36 pm to white perch
I was going to come and bump this tomorrow and see who is holding still. I am and averaged at 6.39/share. I am going to hold but damn this is frustrating. Gave up a decent gain yesterday and looked like it was going to do the same today but held on. The only thing giving me hope is the insider buying that has been going on.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 7:42 pm to white perch
I have no idea what's going to happen with this company. I don't own any shares and I won't be buying any. I tried to short it when it was at $7.70 (as I posted back then) but Schwab killed the order due to a lack of shares to borrow for shorting.
As I wrote back in September when the price was around $15/share, the insiders were dumping their shares which told me there was no buyout on the immediate horizon. But others have posted they've kept buying. Maybe they will answer your questions.
As I wrote back in September when the price was around $15/share, the insiders were dumping their shares which told me there was no buyout on the immediate horizon. But others have posted they've kept buying. Maybe they will answer your questions.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 7:47 pm to LSURussian
I bought at $7.50, something something don't catch a falling knife.
I interned with them one summer and know people that work for them. I guess that's why I bought against common logic, but only for a few $100. I'm just hoping to make back my original investment, not averaging down or getting any more involved with this one. I'd stay away but i have zero investing experience, just my gut
I interned with them one summer and know people that work for them. I guess that's why I bought against common logic, but only for a few $100. I'm just hoping to make back my original investment, not averaging down or getting any more involved with this one. I'd stay away but i have zero investing experience, just my gut
Posted on 12/3/14 at 7:51 pm to PetroAg
I just found a news item on them dated this morning. It's not a favorable article. Basically says sell now or wait a long time for things to get better.
LINK
Eta: I just did a quick and dirty analysis of their financial statements as shown on Yahoo Finance. The balance sheet is a mess and getting worse.
Their current liabilities exceed their current assets by about 50%. Just their accounts payable exceed their total current assets. That's never good.
It's impossible to make a definitive judgement on their immediate solvency because there is no liability maturity schedule available but if I were their bank loan officer I'd be asking them how are they planning on raising the cash so they could pay their existing creditors?
My best guess is they are going to have to issue additional shares to recapitalize, but that's just a guess. Existing shareholders will be significantly diluted.
It's not out of the question they might have to file for reorganization bankruptcy to re-schedule their debts. That usually pretty much wipes out the value of current stockholders' stock.
LINK
Eta: I just did a quick and dirty analysis of their financial statements as shown on Yahoo Finance. The balance sheet is a mess and getting worse.
Their current liabilities exceed their current assets by about 50%. Just their accounts payable exceed their total current assets. That's never good.
It's impossible to make a definitive judgement on their immediate solvency because there is no liability maturity schedule available but if I were their bank loan officer I'd be asking them how are they planning on raising the cash so they could pay their existing creditors?
My best guess is they are going to have to issue additional shares to recapitalize, but that's just a guess. Existing shareholders will be significantly diluted.
It's not out of the question they might have to file for reorganization bankruptcy to re-schedule their debts. That usually pretty much wipes out the value of current stockholders' stock.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 12/3/14 at 8:09 pm to LSURussian
I read that article too. The comments below the article are saying now is s good time to buy.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 8:21 pm to white perch
I see where one of the three comments says buy. Maybe he's right. But it's a speculative buy.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:12 pm to LSURussian
CAVEAT: I am certainly no expert at financial statements but took a quick look out of curiosity. Feel free to poke any holes in this analysis.
Financials from the recent 10-Q, period covering the three months ending Sep 30, 2014
$368.5 MM Oil Revenues (at $95.85/bbl avg)
$34.7 MM Gas Revenues (at $3.75/Mcf avg)
=$403.2 MM Total Revenues
-$142.6 MM Total Lease Operating Expense ($26.47/BOE)
-$38.7 MM Production Taxes, Gathering and Transportation, G&A
-$66.3 MM Interest Expense
=$155.6 MM in the black, assuming no capital or abandonment costs (note that DD&A and Accretion, non-cash items, were an additional $174 MM)
Adjusting the revenues above for an oil price of $70/bbl oil instead results in $99.4 MM less revenues, but still $56.2 MM cash remaining in the black for the quarter.
Also, cash and cash equivalents of $120 MM on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter.
Granted there is going to be some baseline amount of drilling and abandonment that they will need to do, but $70/bbl is very conservative as they have hedges in place.
It seems like they will be able to avoid bankruptcy if they cut way back on investment and drop the dividend. Then if oil prices go back up they are good to go.
Did I miss anything? Maybe their interest expense going forward could be higher?
ETA: One thing is if they stop drilling and production drops off, they could be in a major bind if $70 oil prices outlast their hedges and go through 2015.
Financials from the recent 10-Q, period covering the three months ending Sep 30, 2014
$368.5 MM Oil Revenues (at $95.85/bbl avg)
$34.7 MM Gas Revenues (at $3.75/Mcf avg)
=$403.2 MM Total Revenues
-$142.6 MM Total Lease Operating Expense ($26.47/BOE)
-$38.7 MM Production Taxes, Gathering and Transportation, G&A
-$66.3 MM Interest Expense
=$155.6 MM in the black, assuming no capital or abandonment costs (note that DD&A and Accretion, non-cash items, were an additional $174 MM)
Adjusting the revenues above for an oil price of $70/bbl oil instead results in $99.4 MM less revenues, but still $56.2 MM cash remaining in the black for the quarter.
Also, cash and cash equivalents of $120 MM on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter.
Granted there is going to be some baseline amount of drilling and abandonment that they will need to do, but $70/bbl is very conservative as they have hedges in place.
It seems like they will be able to avoid bankruptcy if they cut way back on investment and drop the dividend. Then if oil prices go back up they are good to go.
Did I miss anything? Maybe their interest expense going forward could be higher?
ETA: One thing is if they stop drilling and production drops off, they could be in a major bind if $70 oil prices outlast their hedges and go through 2015.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:34 pm to Bayou Tiger
I never have confidence in interpreting P&L statements in industries I am not well versed in. Too many accounting quirks allowed which can disguise the results.
Profit on an Income Statement doesn't pay creditors. To prove that just take your personal P&L statement to McDonalds and try to buy a Big Mac with it. As the old saying goes, "profit is an opinion, cash is a fact."
EXXI's balance sheet and their cash flow statement tell me the company is in a difficult, but not impossible, liquidity position. They have to come up with some serious amounts of cash over the next 12 months in order to pay their liabilities coming due and it doesn't appear they are generating sufficient cash through operations to do it. Either that or reorganize their upcoming maturing obligations either voluntarily on their creditors part or through bankruptcy.
In my mind that fact is a likely reason their stock has tanked over the last 3 months.
Profit on an Income Statement doesn't pay creditors. To prove that just take your personal P&L statement to McDonalds and try to buy a Big Mac with it. As the old saying goes, "profit is an opinion, cash is a fact."
EXXI's balance sheet and their cash flow statement tell me the company is in a difficult, but not impossible, liquidity position. They have to come up with some serious amounts of cash over the next 12 months in order to pay their liabilities coming due and it doesn't appear they are generating sufficient cash through operations to do it. Either that or reorganize their upcoming maturing obligations either voluntarily on their creditors part or through bankruptcy.
In my mind that fact is a likely reason their stock has tanked over the last 3 months.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:22 pm to LSURussian
Basically a poorly run company that was over extended and is getting hammered with the price collapse.
Posted on 12/5/14 at 11:33 pm to cwill
Can you point to anything specific as to why this company is so poorly managed? I've seen you come down pretty hard on them multiple times in this thread. Honestly just curious since you may have exposure to them at a services company or whatever and have some reasons.
However, doesn't seem like anyone in this thread is really taking into account the fact that other GoM-focused plays (WTI, SGY, MCF) also got crushed the past few weeks. As for the liquidity comments I'm seeing in this thread, most small-caps are facing issues, such that if WTI (the commodity) drops below $60 and lingers at that level for a sustained period of time, some pretty dramatic repercussions will likely occur across the the entire HY debt space, interestingly.
However, doesn't seem like anyone in this thread is really taking into account the fact that other GoM-focused plays (WTI, SGY, MCF) also got crushed the past few weeks. As for the liquidity comments I'm seeing in this thread, most small-caps are facing issues, such that if WTI (the commodity) drops below $60 and lingers at that level for a sustained period of time, some pretty dramatic repercussions will likely occur across the the entire HY debt space, interestingly.
This post was edited on 12/5/14 at 11:34 pm
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:27 pm to Lou Pai
Down over 14% currently at $2.81...this is getting crazy
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:30 pm to TexanWhoDat74
quote:
Down over 14% currently at $2.81...this is getting crazy
Yep, not good. I have a feeling I will lose it all, or do really well with this. Right now, I am leaning towards losing it all.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 2:20 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
Can you point to anything specific as to why this company is so poorly managed?
I'm not going to...you can take it or leave it.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 2:21 pm to OnTheBrink
quote:
I am leaning towards losing it all.
Been telling folks for months that's the most likely outcome.
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