re: Dont let today's fools gold fool you.

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Just stop posting numbers.

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You have to post numbers to use as a guideline.
I think you understand what I mean.

I said 1221, it got almost to 1230.
Nothing wrong with that.

Now if I say 1221 and it goes up to 1300, then we have a problem with the prediction.

That would be well outside acceptable range.

The S and P can move up or down 8 points in less then 2 seconds.

Lets focus on the big picture here.

Good luck on your trades, whatever you do.

C - Baylor's friend made a trend call. He called a shift from a bull market up trend to a bear market down trend. These calls are extremely important. These market trends usually last 6 months to 3 years on the down side. In March of 2000 we had a start of a down bear trend that took 3 years to hit the bottom, March of 2003. This current down trend may not end soon either. The stock market will go both up and down while it searches for a bottom. Don't be confused by the daily or even weekly ups and downs.

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when daily and weekly predictions were expressed and celebrated.

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If there is one thing that is certain about the market, is that it is uncertain. There are no absolutes. Numbers like S&P 1200,1100,1000, and 1210 are only guide numbers. The trend is the important item.

I think Baylor like many people on this post got caught up in the daily and weekly noise of the up and down market. His friend made a long term call.

The bear down trend will not be actually confirmed until we have a loss of 20% from the high on the S&P. So far we have been down to about a 17% decrease. The market could recover quickly for a year-end rally. If the market does hit the down 20%, then Baylor's friend will probably be right.

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Baylor actually said he wasn't making a bear call..

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Please show me where I said that.

Of course I made a bear call.

What else do you call predicting the market to go from 1360 to at least 1000?

Thats a bear call my friend

Is your memory that short? Of course I know you are a bear. You are the one who said you weren't because you didn't like to be. How that makes sense to anyone is beyond me.

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Of course I know you are a bear

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Baylor

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I mean I got what he was saying. He thinks you're calling him a perma-bear, he's saying he's not, he's just making a bear call right now.

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Thank you Fizzle.
C, it seems like the only one who did not understand what I was saying is you.

Fizzle is correct. I made the statement that me(my buddy) are not permabears that always thinks the sky is falling 24/7, but this is very much a bear call.


Some people thought my friend was an idiot in FEB 09 when he want headfirst long aggressive back when most others thought it was the end of the world.

The point I was making is although my friend is very bearish right now, he is not a permabear like so many other people.


Over 90% of traders are either perma-bears or perma-bulls.


Very few traders are able to make money in any kind of market.

And very few traders can trade without some sort of bias either towards being overly bullish or overly bearish.


I know people that are perma-bears singing there own praises right now saying things such as "I told everyone that the market would go down".

Only problem is these perma-bears fail to mention that they stayed on the sidelines for over 2 years watching one of the greatest bull markets of all time pass them by with nothing to show for it.

Because these same bears from 667 to 1370 had the same song and dance since March 09.

The special traders are the ones that can adjust to any market, not just one or the other.

1,220.06

Stop the presses

Man I was wondering if anyone was going to catch that.