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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 1/11/22 at 1:06 pm to
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7560 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

It shouldn't take years to get a commercial plant going.

It can easily take years depending on where they are in the process. The COVID delays for equipment and material are also very real. We can’t even get totes of sulfuric acid right now. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13877 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 1:25 pm to
Yep I'm at about the same % lent out as you.

I will say that my assessed odds on the BO short piece being coordinated with Koch shot way up based on the call yesterday, learning that Koch was thinking about being an investor since this past spring (when share price was ~$3).
This post was edited on 1/11/22 at 1:32 pm
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
56836 posts
Posted on 1/11/22 at 3:01 pm to
I guess it kinda went up today
Posted by boomtapp
Houston, Tejas
Member since Nov 2007
703 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:26 am to
This stock is becoming less fun over time.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:30 am to
I shoulda maybe sold at $12. $12 was the top. Idk.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
56836 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:31 am to
Yeah

I think next time I get profits I’m going to take them
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13877 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:44 am to
It's frustrating in that lithium prices are at an all time high, so the NPV of the future projects for SLI should be at an all time high as well. But the market seems to be more in a "show me" stage for SLI at this point and I can't say I blame the market on that.

SGML has the best looking chart of the lithium stocks I follow and is the closest one to a pure commodity producer (bringing volumes online this year), not a 3-4 year "story" stock that gets lumped in with tech/pre-revenue stocks which is more where SLI sits today.
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
11535 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 11:18 am to
this thing is a turd.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13877 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 11:26 am to
the thing that bothers me the most is that Mintak stated in the Crux Investor videos back in early '21 that they were expecting JV by mid year '21 and FID by year end '21. Now we get the story (in the BofA webcast) about needing so much time for construction design, etc., and how we should "hope" to get FID in 2H 2022. But surely those same impediments much have been known when he was talking in the Crux Investor videos. The narrative just isn't lining up over time. Lanxess has to have f***ed up the timeline, he just can't state that in a public video.
This post was edited on 1/12/22 at 11:28 am
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3538 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 11:28 am to
We ran too fast. This should have never gotten to $12 based on what we know. $12 is a post-JV completion number.

It sucks because we got a taste of double digits. But $7-9 is probably the right trading range until an actual commitment has been made.

Yes, this company is becoming less exciting but the long term growth potential is still there and this trading range is a fantastic entry point. I keep debating selling some as well but every time I do I have to look at it what the hell I would want to buy and the answer is usually more SLI.

There don’t appear to be catalysts on the short term horizon but all it takes is something like one more big Koch investment saying they’re going to pursue the south Arkansas project in parallel and boom.
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3538 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 11:33 am to
quote:

the thing that bothers me the most is that Mintak stated in the Crux Investor videos back in early '21 that they were expecting JV by mid year '21 and FID by year end '21.


I actually emailed the company today and, amongst other questions, touched on this and asked to expound on the delays and how investors can be confident we aren’t going to continue to experience delays in a race to capture US market share.

Also asked about the hydraulic balance and where the brine ownership changes hands and some other stuff.

Will post any reply I get.
This post was edited on 1/12/22 at 11:34 am
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
11535 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 12:13 pm to
if they time it right (which it looks like they are trying really hard to do), they may hit right there in the recession window they have been shooting for. someone has dropped the ball.
This post was edited on 1/12/22 at 1:54 pm
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
23102 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

It's frustrating in that lithium prices are at an all time high, so the NPV of the future projects for SLI should be at an all time high as well. But the market seems to be more in a "show me" stage for SLI at this point and I can't say I blame the market on that.

SGML has the best looking chart of the lithium stocks I follow and is the closest one to a pure commodity producer (bringing volumes online this year), not a 3-4 year "story" stock that gets lumped in with tech/pre-revenue stocks which is more where SLI sits today.


SGML looks good and should show a nice bump when production at scale begins.

Mintak said in the BOA presentation/interview that training for the centralized conversion unit was going to be necessary somewhere over the horizon. I'm surprised that they can't get started with that personnel development at the demo plant. Follow through in producing actual product in even limited quantity would build a lot more confidence than story telling.

It is a great story, but it's getting painfully slow.
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2642 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

Mintak said in the BOA presentation/interview that training for the centralized conversion unit was going to be necessary somewhere over the horizon. I'm surprised that they can't get started with that personnel development at the demo plant.


Training people now would not make sense with production being 2+ years out. I'm sure they will leverage the existing folks from the demo plant to help train newer employees. Operator trash making operator cash gets expensive quick.

Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
23102 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 4:44 pm to
The BOA presentation/interview bounced like a dead cat.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
56836 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 6:02 am to
Oof down 7
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13877 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 6:06 am to
Yep looks like this is going sub Koch entry today, unreal.

My shares all get to be long term cap gains by Friday, just in time for this crash so I’ll have to hold longer. Lol.

TBH if it goes sub $6 I’m probably gonna start buying more again.
This post was edited on 1/13/22 at 6:09 am
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
56836 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 6:14 am to
Idk man

Mintak got me I guess. Should’ve listened to blue orca
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6635 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 7:55 am to
Every single time this thread turns to despair, news happens and a pop and fomo occurs

Hoping it continues to play forward.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13877 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 8:36 am to
$7.40 yeesh....
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