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re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread

Posted on 6/26/21 at 10:04 pm to
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 6/26/21 at 10:04 pm to
This one works well enough. There is certainly more high-powered stuff out there, but this is all I need:

LINK
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
36491 posts
Posted on 6/27/21 at 3:48 pm to
Thanks. I like your system. Hope it continues to well for you.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18916 posts
Posted on 6/27/21 at 5:18 pm to
I’m long ATOS, but it seems like it’s got to slow down soon. Volume has been through the roof. RSI must be above 80 if I had to guess.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 6/27/21 at 8:55 pm to
Thanks
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 6/27/21 at 8:57 pm to
Thanks. That one meets my screen criteria and technicals appear to be getting close to generating my buy puts signal.

That said, I know there is significant event risk with biotech, and I generally try to avoid event risk.

Do you foresee any sudden news releases that could jolt the stock higher, or is the news flow more or less dried up short term?
This post was edited on 6/27/21 at 8:58 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18916 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 9:14 am to
News on trials came out a few weeks ago as did news of being listed on the Russell indices.

I think they’re probably on the Russell as of today and it was a sell the news type of event.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18916 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 1:45 pm to
As you can see, ATOS is acting strangely. I believe there’s some kind of Reddit war going on.

Maybe best to steer clear of this one.
Posted by Hussss
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
6742 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:53 pm to
ATOS is just a very volatile, high beta name. Chart set up (above all moving averages, RSI above 50, much lighter volume on pullbacks) still looking good. Another cup w/ handle possibly forming.

Much respect and admiration for the top institutions I see holding this one. I took a flyer here in after hours today. I will keep accumulating between here and $5.
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 10:05 pm
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 7/16/21 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Out of HYRE puts today; still holding WLL puts. Rerunning screen.

ETA: ended up taking a position in JYNT Aug $85 puts around the close today


Out of WLL puts for 25% gain. Still holding JYNT puts. Rerunning screen.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 7/20/21 at 8:59 am to
Still in JYNT, but added Sep. CPLG puts today.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 7/30/21 at 8:33 am to
Looking to unload JYNT today. There's some event risk forthcoming with earnings coming in 6 days.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 8/2/21 at 3:30 pm to
Dumped CPLG puts today for 7.5% gain. They also have earnings coming up and are apparently exploring strategic alternatives. Shame on me for not identifying that latter event risk when I took the position, but happy to have the gain and will make me more disciplined going forward.

Still holding JYNT puts, as I wasn’t able to unload Friday. I’ll be pulling the trigger as quickly as possible though, given earnings on Thursday.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 8/6/21 at 9:19 am to
Well, JYNT is my first loss since starting this thread, and that's entirely due to mistakes made on my part:

1. Not having recognized the event risk prior to entering the position. I literally could have done 5-10 more minutes of research prior to taking the position which likely would have caused me to avoid taking this position in the first place.

2. Even once the extent of the event risk was recognized, I was stubborn in not selling immediately (for a small loss) and instead rolling the dice on the earnings report (which has now resulted in a large loss). In a strategy like this, capital preservation is key, and I should have taken steps to preserve as much capital as possible instead of exposing myself to unwanted event risk.

1 loss out of a dozen or so means the strategy is still up 100s of %, but these were avoidable errors that I wanted to publicly acknowledge. Can't win 'em all, and can't identify unknown unknowns, but sure as hell could have limited my exposure to what should have been known unknowns (i.e. identifiable event risk).

Rerunning screen and remaining more disciplined going forward.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 8/9/21 at 9:11 am to
Took put positions in ASIX, DSKE and GSKY this morning.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4090 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 1:35 am to
quote:

They also have earnings coming up and are apparently exploring strategic alternatives.


I haven’t had the time to follow your thread as closely as I’d like, but do you sometimes buy puts WELL in advance of an earnings event, looking to take advantage of the IV spike going into earnings? Basically the opposite of what I do as an options seller.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 2:58 pm to
I'm always trying to buy well in advance of earnings and unload before earnings. I don't want the event risk.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4090 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 8:20 pm to
Right. So you do buy while IV is relatively low, capture the IV spike and then unload before the event? It’s a smart way to go, IMO.
Posted by CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
502 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 8:50 pm to
When you say 10-25% in the money do you mean buying a put above the current market price or below it? ITM and ATM confuse me.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4090 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

the strategy is still up 100s of %,


The fact that you’re working an actual strategy and tracking its success or win/loss rate is what’s causing me to try to follow your thread.

You’re not doing the so & so’s hot tips or throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks approach that so many employ. Nice work.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:39 pm to
To an extent. I look for overbought stocks with shaky fundamentals, but don’t buy them until volume has settled down and they start to show signs of reversal. So in a way, I’m hoping any elevated volatility is skewed to the downside.
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