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Currency market help
Posted on 1/28/11 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 1/28/11 at 2:36 pm
if you are expecting the 1 Egyptian pound = 0.1707 US dollars, to decrease in value, what is the best way to take advantage of it?
1
Posted on 1/28/11 at 3:19 pm to The Claw
Sell the pound, buy the dollar? 
My only question is why you think the market price is not already correct.
My only question is why you think the market price is not already correct.
Posted on 1/28/11 at 4:17 pm to foshizzle
quote:
My only question is why you think the market price is not already correct.
it has ranged between $0.17-$0.19 over the past 5 years. If "regime change" is ahead, and a more militant government is around the corner, the EPound will devalue.
I believe historically in the area(M.E) there is a significant money movement out of the area during periods of unrest.
Can you get a future sell option?
Posted on 1/29/11 at 2:07 pm to The Claw
quote:
it has ranged between $0.17-$0.19 over the past 5 years.
That's because their central bank tries to keep it that way, which may or may not be affected by who is President.
quote:
If "regime change" is ahead, and a more militant government is around the corner, the EPound will devalue.
My question would be better phrased as "why do you believe the chances are greater than what the smart money thinks?" By "smart money" I mean people who spend their lives trading this particular currency and personally know people at the central bank.
Not saying you can't get lucky, just wondering if there is a specific reason why you have an edge. For example, if you happen to live in Cairo and are actively involved in events over there.
Regarding the specific vehicle, I don't know but kinda doubt there is a "future sell option" or any other derivative that's available to individuals, the market for individuals may be too thin for it. I'd suggest selling the Egyptian stock index but it has already fallen quite a bit, of course.
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