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ulsaint
Member since Oct 2007
1892 posts

Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
All these companies that make money in China are going to have to take a hit won't they? I mean with all the closures and quarantines, etc.

Next quarter's earnings should be down I would think. I know my company is already feeling the effect. We had two days of panic but now back to usual.

Weird.


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
32453 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
quote:

Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
I mean there was a clear drop when it first started getting global attention, and things haven’t changed more than expected since then. But I’m not sure why it would have that large of an impact on the market, if it plays out like expected. Of course, some companies will be negatively impacted, but a lot of those will just be a temporary impact. That wouldn’t really change much about the fundamental outlook beyond and independent of that.

I could see some companies, particularly travel/tourist (e.g., cruises), that may be more significantly impacted and have more lingering effects that might change the outlook more. Other than those, why would we expect much more of a market reaction?


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12
arcalades
LSU Fan
USA
Member since Feb 2014
11145 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
the coronavirus is not a big deal unless you are old, very young, or otherwise weakened by some underlying ailment. The flu is far far far worse.


Spirit of Dunson
Columbia Fan
Member since Mar 2007
22987 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
Don't conflate the health impact of the virus with the business impact of the cure.


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81
seawolf06
LSU Fan
Raleigh, NC
Member since Oct 2007
7004 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
The market acts faster than you can think. All possibilities are "baked in" the moment the news breaks.


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34
Boatshoes
Member since Dec 2017
5921 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
I think the market is not reacting to this due to excessive normalcy bias. I pulled out of equities today.
This post was edited on 2/14 at 10:06 am


lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
7599 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
quote:

Next quarter's earnings should be down I would think.


I am guessing they will panic when numbers are released in April/May. People keep saying China is so important but Tariffs and Virus Shut down has been a yawner for the global economy.


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20
buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
32453 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
quote:

I pulled out of equities today.
Why would anyone just pull out of equities at any time, especially if you mean all of your investments?

Also, unless you do that in a tax-deferred or tax-free account, then this would just result in a taxable event of an entire account’s gains. Then you would have to make up for the tax losses to make it a worthwhile decision.


boomtown143
LSU Fan
BR
Member since May 2019
1841 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
Unless there is some HUGE announcement of deaths then I'd say yes.


mrgreenpants
Ohio State Fan
paisaland
Member since Mar 2018
355 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
this is the money board.

and one man's biological catastrophe is another's glorious opportunity.


what are y'alls ideas on how to monetize this..situation over there in china.


china's market indicators are plummeting.
tourism is basically zero now.

what are some easing pickiing to benefit from an eventual rebound?





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LSU1018
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
6742 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
I bought some INO stock on Thursday. They are developing a vaccine for Coronavirus.


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11
boomtown143
LSU Fan
BR
Member since May 2019
1841 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
quote:

what are y'alls ideas on how to monetize this..situation over there in china.


buy alibaba??
all those factories are shut down or have significantly slowed down.

I saw that but it looks like it's already over it. Dropped on Jan 27th but is almost back to were it was. $10 below it's all time high
This post was edited on 2/15 at 10:33 am


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10
CheEngineer
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2019
584 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
We are probably due for a good pull back coronavirus could be the catalyst to kick it off. I agree with the poster above about the freak out being when the actual numbers come out.


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10
LSUShock
LSU Fan
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
3675 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
I work in International Freight. Coronavirus is having a massive impact on Trans-Pacific trade both import & export for any company who operates in the space. At this point you're looking at a 6-8 week lag time in getting goods on hand post Chinese New Year due to the virus. Those sales don't just double once the goods hit to make up for the loss. China is operating at about a 30% production capacity right now. Multiple countries over there have stated the negative impact to Q1 GDP the virus will have.
This post was edited on 2/15 at 9:12 pm


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30
deaconjones35
LSU Fan
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2009
8651 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
For what it’s worth, I deal with 4 factories in China and they haven’t worked since the CNY Holiday. They hope to go back to the factories on Feb 20th, but that is still up in the air. That’s over a month where most factories are closed. Plus the shipping companies are going to be a cluster once product starts moving out again. Instead of a 4-5 week lead time, I think it will take around 5-7 weeks for product to land. The one good thing is most importers build up their inventory due to CNY, but I think there will be some inventory issues for many companies for the next 1-3 months.


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10
Lima Whiskey
Virginia Fan
Member since Apr 2013
7759 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
The economic worst case scenario is pretty bad.


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10
rotrain
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
119 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
To me, it is easy to see the writing on the wall. The 2nd largest economy in the world has been hit with a new epidemic that kills 1 in 50 people. There are various levels of quarantine happening to about 800 million people. Supply chains are being disrupted, factories have shut down, tourism related travel is plummeting.

The only thing I can think of as to why it hasn't (yet) hit the US stock market hard is that is hasn't shown up YET in the economic data. Once backward looking data starts rolling in that quantifies the actual impact we should start to see the markets react.

If it doesn't become widespread outside of China, we will still see Chinese growth plummet while the rest of the world growth will at least slow somewhat. That will be a far cry from what "expectations" were, and I think would drive a correction.

If it begins to spread outside of China to extent it has inside of China...it could get really ugly.

To me, the likelihood of at least one of these scenarios playing out is at least 50/50. I'm very surprised that amount of uncertainty hasn't driven a greater flight to safety out of stocks. Maybe the market is still in "bad news is good news" mode, where bad news means more Fed liquidity. The problem I see there is that this time is very different, in that there would be a very real supply chain disruption. Is that a problem the Fed is equipped to solve? I don't believe they are.

All of that said, who the heck really knows? We are treading in unfamiliar waters here, as the scale of COVID-19 is far greater than other similar outbreaks we have faced in recent years. Which again, points to greater uncertainty which the markets SHOULD not like very much. But so far, markets seem to be holding up really well. Personally, I thought we would have seen a correction by now. Maybe the markets just aren't there yet.


lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
7599 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
The other factor for US stocks is we will be considered safer. So, there could be a flight from riskier to safer assets which is propping up US Stocks.


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UpstairsComputer
LSU Fan
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
825 posts

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
Apple just guided down for 1st quarter.


lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
7599 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?
quote:

Apple just guided down for 1st quarter.



It had to start at some point.


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