Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?

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Coronavirus can't be baked in to the market already right?

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I mean there was a clear drop when it first started getting global attention, and things haven’t changed more than expected since then. But I’m not sure why it would have that large of an impact on the market, if it plays out like expected. Of course, some companies will be negatively impacted, but a lot of those will just be a temporary impact. That wouldn’t really change much about the fundamental outlook beyond and independent of that.

I could see some companies, particularly travel/tourist (e.g., cruises), that may be more significantly impacted and have more lingering effects that might change the outlook more. Other than those, why would we expect much more of a market reaction?

Don't conflate the health impact of the virus with the business impact of the cure.

I think the market is not reacting to this due to excessive normalcy bias. I pulled out of equities today.

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I pulled out of equities today.

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Why would anyone just pull out of equities at any time, especially if you mean all of your investments?

Also, unless you do that in a tax-deferred or tax-free account, then this would just result in a taxable event of an entire account’s gains. Then you would have to make up for the tax losses to make it a worthwhile decision.

this is the money board.

and one man's biological catastrophe is another's glorious opportunity.


what are y'alls ideas on how to monetize this..situation over there in china.


china's market indicators are plummeting.
tourism is basically zero now.

what are some easing pickiing to benefit from an eventual rebound?

I bought some INO stock on Thursday. They are developing a vaccine for Coronavirus.

We are probably due for a good pull back coronavirus could be the catalyst to kick it off. I agree with the poster above about the freak out being when the actual numbers come out.

For what it’s worth, I deal with 4 factories in China and they haven’t worked since the CNY Holiday. They hope to go back to the factories on Feb 20th, but that is still up in the air. That’s over a month where most factories are closed. Plus the shipping companies are going to be a cluster once product starts moving out again. Instead of a 4-5 week lead time, I think it will take around 5-7 weeks for product to land. The one good thing is most importers build up their inventory due to CNY, but I think there will be some inventory issues for many companies for the next 1-3 months.

To me, it is easy to see the writing on the wall. The 2nd largest economy in the world has been hit with a new epidemic that kills 1 in 50 people. There are various levels of quarantine happening to about 800 million people. Supply chains are being disrupted, factories have shut down, tourism related travel is plummeting.

The only thing I can think of as to why it hasn't (yet) hit the US stock market hard is that is hasn't shown up YET in the economic data. Once backward looking data starts rolling in that quantifies the actual impact we should start to see the markets react.

If it doesn't become widespread outside of China, we will still see Chinese growth plummet while the rest of the world growth will at least slow somewhat. That will be a far cry from what "expectations" were, and I think would drive a correction.

If it begins to spread outside of China to extent it has inside of China...it could get really ugly.

To me, the likelihood of at least one of these scenarios playing out is at least 50/50. I'm very surprised that amount of uncertainty hasn't driven a greater flight to safety out of stocks. Maybe the market is still in "bad news is good news" mode, where bad news means more Fed liquidity. The problem I see there is that this time is very different, in that there would be a very real supply chain disruption. Is that a problem the Fed is equipped to solve? I don't believe they are.

All of that said, who the heck really knows? We are treading in unfamiliar waters here, as the scale of COVID-19 is far greater than other similar outbreaks we have faced in recent years. Which again, points to greater uncertainty which the markets SHOULD not like very much. But so far, markets seem to be holding up really well. Personally, I thought we would have seen a correction by now. Maybe the markets just aren't there yet.

Apple just guided down for 1st quarter.