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re: CEOs' thoughts on the debt crisis

Posted on 6/26/12 at 7:29 pm to
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82219 posts
Posted on 6/26/12 at 7:29 pm to
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17296 posts
Posted on 6/26/12 at 8:39 pm to
quote:

What is the best way to prepare for inflation? Is there really anything a middle class person can do to ease the pain when inflation hits?


Inflation is common and will continue in the world economy. IMO there isn't much you can do to prepare for it for the normal person unless you are a day trader who oversees market trends daily. Most smart traders these days trade the futures market(commodities/currencies/financials) because you base decisions on supply and demand(technical analysis) with the occasional media pump and dump. If you look at history, usually the market wins out(see 2008-2012). You basically would of won back your losses if you stuck in the market.

That said...Europe is putting the world economy in a tough position. I think it all goes back to Fiat money IMO because there is no intrinsic value(gold silver)to back up the currencies(US/Euro)
This post was edited on 6/26/12 at 8:50 pm
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5858 posts
Posted on 6/26/12 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

IMO there isn't much you can do to prepare for it for the normal person unless you are a day trader who oversees market trends daily.

Don't agree on this, preparing for inflation as a day trader is almost impossible. Technical analysis depends on flows, levels, and patterns. Its easier to prepare as a long-term investor because a lot of the true inflation protection instruments have wider bid/ask spreads. TIPS have their own issues due to some of the assumptions in CPI and how they trade (below).
quote:

Most smart traders these days trade the futures market(commodities/currencies/financials) because you base decisions on supply and demand(technical analysis)

If you looked at forward curves since 2009, you'd have seen very high expected inflation and interest rates. Implied rates have been higher than actual for 3 straight years. The smart investors have been making a killing writing pay-fixed swaptions, writing inflation caps, entering in received-fixed interest rate swaps, etc.. TIPS are priced on breakeven rates, so basically expectations for inflation rather than inflation. So you could have inflation but still a negative return.
quote:

That said...Europe is putting the world economy in a tough position. I think it all goes back to Fiat money IMO because there is no intrinsic value(gold silver)to back up the currencies(US/Euro)

I wouldn't say fiat is the reason for Europe's woes. I think part of that goes back to the dynamics of European working culture versus benefits. Over half of Greece is employed by the government, France had violent protests from raising the retirement age to 62, Spanish general working hours have a 3 hour siesta (lucky bastards), and each of these countries have very generous entitlement programs. Fiat is a way they've been able to mask this by promoting tourism and attracting commerce by weakening their currency. That went away when they didn't own their printing press. These are just a few examples, Europe's problems are plenty.
Posted by AUtigerNOLA
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2011
17296 posts
Posted on 6/26/12 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

Don't agree on this, preparing for inflation as a day trader is almost impossible. Technical analysis depends on flows, levels, and patterns. Its easier to prepare as a long-term investor because a lot of the true inflation protection instruments have wider bid/ask spreads. TIPS have their own issues due to some of the assumptions in CPI and how they trade (below).


I agree. In comparison the long term investor has accounted for inflation(this is me). I was going based on people I know that try to hedge against inflation.

quote:

If you looked at forward curves since 2009, you'd have seen very high expected inflation and interest rates. Implied rates have been higher than actual for 3 straight years. The smart investors have been making a killing writing pay-fixed swaptions, writing inflation caps, entering in received-fixed interest rate swaps, etc.. TIPS are priced on breakeven rates, so basically expectations for inflation rather than inflation. So you could have inflation but still a negative return.


This is good info. In my mind, I think futures is a good way to trade, but also involves alot of risk if you dont limit you loss or have an amount you are willing to lose if your trade doesnt go right.

quote:

I wouldn't say fiat is the reason for Europe's woes.


IMO Fiat is one reason for the woes. As you said there are plenty of reasons. I think the main question is where is the money going to come from to fix the crisis? Out of thin air? They should let them fail. But of course that would come with some problems as well.

I would like to have more discussions with you about this as you seem to be very knowledgeable on the subject. I am young so bear with me.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 8:32 am to
If inflation is your thesis, this is a good way for the average person to save. Have to open a Treasury Direct Account:

quote:

I Bonds are a low-risk, liquid savings product. While you own them they earn interest and protect you from inflation. Once sold and redeemed solely as a paper security, they’re now also available in electronic form and in paper form through your IRS tax refund. As a TreasuryDirect account holder, you can buy, manage, and redeem I Bonds online. A new program called SmartExchangeSM allows TreasuryDirect account owners to convert their Series E, EE, and I paper savings bonds to electronic securities in a special Conversion Linked Account within their online account. Buying I Bonds through TreasuryDirect: Sold at face value; you pay $50 for a $50 bond.

Purchased in amounts of $25 or more, to the penny. $10,000 maximum purchase in one calendar year. Issued electronically to your designated account. Buying Paper I Bonds: Available only through your IRS tax refund Sold at face value; i.e., you pay $50 for a $50 bond. Purchased in denominations of $50, $75, $100, $200, $500, $1,000, and $5,000. $5,000 maximum purchase in one calendar year. Issued as paper bond certificates. If you redeem I Bonds within the first 5 years, you'll forfeit the 3 most recent months' interest; after 5 years, you won't be penalized.


US Treasury


Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5858 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 9:26 am to
I bonds still have the same problems with CPI, although CPI-U is better than CPI. You still have to deal with the substitution bias and hedonic regressions. I still don't know how people can consider the Series EE inflation protection post 2005, they don't index inflation at all.


Posted by greenhead11
Member since Feb 2012
955 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 10:05 am to
The devaluation of the USD is inevitable. Look our debt to GDP ratio compared to other developed nations. We have high unemployment, are facing a fiscal cliff, and have a looming ramp up in entitlement spending as baby boomers get close to retirement. This is an unsustainable path. Something has got to give. As someone said, we need a politican to come in to office and commit political suicide

US problems right now are not in the spot light because we are the best house on a shottty block.

Historically, one of the best hedges of inflation are commodities. If you are a long term investor with exposure to commodities, some form of TIPs/I Bonds and equities, I wouldn't let inflation worry me. If you want to hedge against a devaluation of the USD buy gold.

If I was an old man in retirement who relied on fixed income, I'd be contemplating robbing a bank because inflation will eat away at real returns. Thus the logical choice for some of the old timers is to turn to the equity market, and PM are now having to increase their customers allocations to equities taking on more risks. Traditional asset allocation models can no longer provide the same returns they did in a higher rate environment
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5858 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Traditional asset allocation models can no longer provide the same returns they did in a higher rate environment

I think this is more worrisome than inflation. Most people aren't concerned about inflation as long as their real rates are positive. Unfortunatley you have negative real rates pretty far up the curve due to financial repression. Interest rates this low really push most people out of your typical asset allocation. In the past the most risk averse investors bought treasuries and sat on them. Now I'd argue if you're in a range bound interest rate environment you might as well sit on agency mortgages to pick up spread to treasuries as long as the range bound environment cuts out your prepayment and extension risk. Also, hope the government doesn't come out with another Refi program announcement that destroys the 5-6% coupon stacks.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 11:46 am to
quote:

BennyAndTheInkJets


Killing it in this thread.

You are massively increasing my productivity at work.

Posted by AUFanInSoCal
Orange County
Member since Nov 2007
1616 posts
Posted on 6/27/12 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

those who are overpaid for what they do and won't get raises comensurate to the levels of inflation.

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