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re: CAVA long term

Posted on 8/22/24 at 4:46 pm to
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13677 posts
Posted on 8/22/24 at 4:46 pm to
Wow!

Things are going very well for CAVA

Earnings per share: 17 cents vs. 13 cents expected
Revenue: $233 million vs. $220 million expected
The Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $19.7 million, or 17 cents per share, up from $6.5 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.
Net sales climbed 35% to $233 million. The company's same-store sales rose 14.4%, topping StreetAccount estimates of 7.9%.

For fiscal 2024, Cava now expects same-store sales growth of 8.5% to 9.5%, up from its prior range of 4.5% to 6.5%. The company is also projecting that it will open 54 to 57 new locations this year, up from its previous forecast of 50 to 54 restaurants.
Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
82096 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 8:45 am to
115

That was some nice earnings
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13677 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 9:16 am to
Up 18% at the open!

Wow
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90040 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 9:41 am to
Cava valuation is kind of insane right now. I believe it’s north of $40 million per current restaurant.
Posted by lionward2014
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
12704 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 9:58 am to
Hate my life for getting out at $95 after it fluctuated for a few days a few weeks ago.
Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
82096 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 2:05 pm to
$122+ into the weekend?
Posted by jefforize
Member since Feb 2008
45059 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 3:00 pm to
A robust 400 forward PE.

Posted by TulaneLSU
Member since Aug 2003
Member since Dec 2007
13595 posts
Posted on 8/23/24 at 11:51 pm to
Friend,

It is a good company, but it is not a good stock at the current price. I once enjoyed a vegan meal at Cava and recognized immediately that their profit margins are tiny. Half lentils, half super greens (cabbage, broccoli, Brussels sprouts) as my base, I then had three scoops of nine different fillers from which to choose and I settled on hummus, red pepper hummus, and harissa.

Moving down the line, my entree was roaster vegetables, consisting of roasted cauliflower, Brussels sprout, and broccoli. Then comes the hodgepodge part: roasted corn, tomato and cucumber, two sorts of sliced pickles, pickled cabbage, pita strips, feta cheese, and Kalamata olives. There were another three or four options I skipped. A generous portion of Tahini lemon sauce and a pita chip topped the meal.

The total was just $10.50 tax included. Unfortunately, there was no place to include a tip because these workers definitely deserved one. Fast, efficient, knowledgeable and friendly, the whole team was of excellent stock.

I weighed my meal, after also weighing an empty bowl. One pound, eleven ounces.

Compare that to Chipotle. Rice and beans, a protein, corn salsa, tomato salsa, two wet salsas, cheese, and sour cream. The last time I ate at Chipotle my bowl weighed 13 ounces, less than half the weight at Cava. The vast majority of it was rice and beans. Cava, on the other hand, was evenly distributed, with none of the impressive weight primarily cheap filler.

Both cost the same. I suspect Chipotle’s food cost was around $1.50 for my meal. Cava I estimated at $3.50. More than that, Cava’s plenty was labor intensive, I suspect requiring twice as much labor.

While Cava produces a product that is three to four times better than Chipotle at the same cost to the customer, that does not translate into a better stock buy to the investor.

As an eater, choose the vastly superior Cava. As an investor, choose where the sheep enjoy their cheap filler.

Yours,
TulaneLSU
Posted by Motownsix
Boise
Member since Oct 2022
2735 posts
Posted on 8/26/24 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

lol. Chipotle is one of the greatest compounders of our generation. I have eaten there once and it sucked but the stock is up 5,962% since IPO IN 06’. CAVA would be perfectly ok if it “goes the way of Chipotle”


I for one think that is a great comparison. It’s expensive, but its room for growth is huge. I still think it’s early.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90040 posts
Posted on 8/27/24 at 6:51 am to
Chipotle never had the kind of valuation that Cava is getting.

People want it to be the next Chipotle so they’ve bid it up to extreme prices IMO.

It can grow into that price, but it also limits upside for a while.


ETA- apparently the board and biggest shareholder agree:

This post was edited on 8/27/24 at 6:58 am
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13677 posts
Posted on 8/28/24 at 7:06 am to
quote:

It can grow into that price, but it also limits upside for a while.


Without a doubt, cava is over priced at current levels.

It needs some retraction imo

I sold a quarter of my position a week ago and sold the remainder today.
This post was edited on 8/28/24 at 9:24 pm
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