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Buying put options in AppLovin with expiration of late next year. Advice needed!

Posted on 12/18/24 at 10:30 am
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 10:30 am
Can someone give advice on which put option chain would be best if I thought Applovin goes back to $10 by late next year.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21081 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 10:36 am to
How much money are you willing to spend?
You won't be able to find much liquidity if you try too low of a PUT.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 11:39 am to
Around $1K.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
23153 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 1:31 pm to
It is sitting at $331 now and was last $10 back in January of 2023. What is making you think it will go back to a 2 year low?
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 2:45 pm to
I have a hunch they are committing attribution fraud.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21081 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

Around $1K.

There's no market in puts than far out for that cheap.
You'd have to spend more like 10k to make a trade.

Otherwise you can do shorter range puts that are not so far OTM and then continually roll them (if things go your way). Of course, the time to have done that would have been this morning
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7858 posts
Posted on 12/19/24 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

I have a hunch they are committing attribution fraud.


Do tell
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
23153 posts
Posted on 1/22/25 at 9:18 am to
quote:

I have a hunch they are committing attribution fraud.


Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
23153 posts
Posted on 2/12/25 at 7:30 pm to
quote:

Buying put options in AppLovin with expiration of late next year.




Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
43143 posts
Posted on 2/12/25 at 7:35 pm to
Posted by jefforize
Member since Feb 2008
45008 posts
Posted on 2/12/25 at 7:36 pm to
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:14 am to
quote:

DarthRebel



Down to $290.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
45061 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:17 am to
Stocks only go up bro
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
21081 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:17 am to
Did you buy any kind of instrument to short it?
Holding at $510 would have been difficult (Michael Burry-esque).

Props for the call
Posted by jefforize
Member since Feb 2008
45008 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:21 am to
short report hit

LINK

quote:

AppLovin Corporation (NADSAQ:APP): Force-Feeding Users with Silent Backdoor
Installs and Copying Meta’s Homework. Straight to the Principal’s Office, Please


quote:

First, we believe AppLovin’s recent success in mobile gaming stems from the systematic exploitation of
app permissions that enable advertisements themselves to force-feed silent, backdoor app installations
directly onto users’ phones, with just a single click – an event that is often inadvertent thanks to the
Company’s notorious UX gimmicks. This is AdTech’s version of “the truck rolling down the hill.” As
AppLovin is paid largely on a per-install basis, each illicit install translates directly to profit.


Second, we believe AppLovin’s nascent e-commerce initiative is a smoke and mirrors game that the
Company has rigged in its favor from the start. AppLovin must maintain a tight rein on advertisers it
allows onto the platform, lest the narrative slip. To that end, the Company requires advertisers first
demonstrate proof of $600,000 per month on Meta, so that AppLovin – through its MAX mediation
platform – can “see” ads shown to Meta users in order to insert itself into the process and take credit for
the sale. AppLovin then cajoles advertisers into spreading the news of their success, drumming up
excitement. The Company has parlayed this excitement into a waitlist, where sources say the Company is
now again stacking the deck with advertisers with low SKU counts, those without robust data science
1This is a clipping from an episode of a British television sitcom, and should be evaluated solely as such.



yikes
This post was edited on 2/26/25 at 9:26 am
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:27 am to
quote:

Did you buy any kind of instrument to short it?



Unfortunately, I didn't. Options are not my strong suit and I did not receive much advice on on this play so my money was allocated elsewhere.

The short report only confirms what I thought and I still believe this stock has a long way to fall.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:30 am to
quote:

AppLovin – through its MAX mediation
platform – can “see” ads shown to Meta users in order to insert itself into the process and take credit for
the sale.


this is the attribution fraud I was referring to in my original post
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
23153 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:56 am to
Here we go with another "Short Seller" hit piece.

Maybe this one will be able to retire as well like Hindenburg off their "research".

SMCI has fully recovered from the Hindenburg "get rich scheme" they pulled back in August.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
23153 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 9:57 am to
quote:

Down to $290.


Up to $327
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3341 posts
Posted on 2/26/25 at 10:49 am to
In the ad tech world, it’s pretty much common knowledge that app traffic is loaded with fraud, bots and bad reporting everywhere. Suddenly, there’s a company claiming they can get amazing results but only if you’re spending a ton on other channels(Meta). There’s a reason they only work with big spenders: they need other marketing channels running to pull off their attribution trick.
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