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Message
BLS Jobs data - revisions
Posted on 8/4/25 at 8:01 am
Posted on 8/4/25 at 8:01 am
lots of talk about Trump firing head of BLS - I work in a biz that the jobs report have a huge impact...have always thought the data is crap...but lots of talk in last few days about pre - post Covid data, so this a.m. i took a look...if you look at standard deviation of 2 month revisions pre Covid March 2020 to 2013 (bloomberg default) it is 45k jobs, from April '20 to this month it is 154k jobs.....the recent data is GARBAGE
Posted on 8/4/25 at 8:39 am to hubreb
quote:
lots of talk about Trump firing head of BLS - I work in a biz that the jobs report have a huge impact...have always thought the data is crap...but lots of talk in last few days about pre - post Covid data, so this a.m. i took a look...if you look at standard deviation of 2 month revisions pre Covid March 2020 to 2013 (bloomberg default) it is 45k jobs, from April '20 to this month it is 154k jobs.....the recent data is GARBAGE
100%.
Trump should have been more expansive in his reasons for firing the BLS head, stating that the numbers have been extremely wrong for years. Instead, his wording was about just the latest batch and the media (of course) is going to forget about the 800k overage in estimates for the last nine months of 2024 (which comes out to nearly 2x the pre-COVID average).
Posted on 8/4/25 at 8:42 am to hubreb
I've never personally understood posting numbers from the previous month so early if they are always so far off. Just wait until the data is more real? Like if they are posting job reports for a previous month a week or two after a month closes out and its garbage data, just wait a few more weeks?
Reminds me of monthly accounting close cycles. There are people in companies every single month trying to push and push and push up the process every day possible to get a month closed out, then once it gets to an unrealistic point you have to constantly open up the books to adjust previously closed periods for changes that pop up that are significant. It becomes a huge headache from an accounting point of view.to do stuff like that especially after you report a bunch of numbers.
So again, just wait till all the data is definitely good, why is there always such a rush to do stuff and then make it completely useless
Reminds me of monthly accounting close cycles. There are people in companies every single month trying to push and push and push up the process every day possible to get a month closed out, then once it gets to an unrealistic point you have to constantly open up the books to adjust previously closed periods for changes that pop up that are significant. It becomes a huge headache from an accounting point of view.to do stuff like that especially after you report a bunch of numbers.
So again, just wait till all the data is definitely good, why is there always such a rush to do stuff and then make it completely useless
This post was edited on 8/4/25 at 8:45 am
Posted on 8/4/25 at 8:58 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Just wait until the data is more real?
If you wait too long, the data is useless. Frankly, the government has enough resources to be more accurate than they have been - hence the firing IMO.
Posted on 8/4/25 at 6:45 pm to hubreb
quote:
lots of talk about Trump firing head of BLS - I work in a biz that the jobs report have a huge impact.
As someone who used that data on city, county, and state level I always found that data extremely reliable and valid. We conducted quite a bit of research through various industries each quarter that confirmed the data we were getting from the BLS particularly around seismic events like recession, hurricanes, and Covid.
The playbook says that anything MAGA doesn’t like is fake. It works on a certain demographic. 2k+ people work for the BLS, but we are expected to believe one person sits in an office and rigs the numbers for some sort of political bias.
Posted on 8/4/25 at 6:51 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
I've never personally understood posting numbers from the previous month so early if they are always so far off. Just wait until the data is more real?
That is a legitimate concern. The problem with that is that the lag time between when the action occurred and the reporting of what took place becomes so great that people lose the ability to act on the data at all.
I collected data for a government entity and we ran into this question quite a bit. This came up often with bed tax and sales tax collections. Not all taxes are paid or collected in a timely matter, but businesses and government want to know how the economy is doing. We had a formula we used to report taxes for the previous month before all the taxes were collected and audited. We always had to do revisions, but bottom line is people want to know how July business was in August not in December.
This post was edited on 8/4/25 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 8/4/25 at 6:56 pm to Pvt Hudson
quote:
If you wait too long, the data is useless. Frankly, the government has enough resources to be more accurate than they have been - hence the firing IMO.
The truth is the revisions aren’t really as far off as they are made out to be. If you look at the unemployment number it rarely moves a tenth of a percent after a revision. Job creation numbers are a bit more tricky and are almost completely dependent upon self-reporting techniques and that can be about jobs being restructured or reclassified in any given organization.
Posted on 8/5/25 at 9:45 am to Motownsix
quote:
s someone who used that data on city, county, and state level I always found that data extremely reliable and valid. We conducted quite a bit of research through various industries each quarter that confirmed the data we were getting from the BLS particularly around seismic events like recession, hurricanes, and Covid.
The playbook says that anything MAGA doesn’t like is fake. It works on a certain demographic. 2k+ people work for the BLS, but we are expected to believe one person sits in an office and rigs the numbers for some sort of political bias.
Sorry dude, the data is the data - it's been bad since Covid...i did identify a flaw in my calculation, I didn't take into account the variation it would make with both misses to the positive and the negative - so i've re-done just doing miss amount...prior to covid the std deviation of a 2 month revision was 28k and post covid it is 118k - not good and nothing to do with MAGA
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:44 am to hubreb
They call the state and are totally dependent on what they are told
I agree they are BS but Orange Man is prone to trantrums.
Childlike
I agree they are BS but Orange Man is prone to trantrums.
Childlike
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