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Message
Billion to One - BLLN Diagnostic Testing
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:22 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:22 am
This is my last pitch of the year.
I’ve accumulated 140 shares.
First at $105 then at $92.
I’m betting on management.
The founders are undeniably brilliant, and have learned how to manage the company extraordinary well. Founder led companies are often a first screener for alpha for good reason. It’s their life’s mission.
Hardly anyone knows about this company somehow…
The first thing I’ll address is the 39% plunge it took a few months ago.
Management merely reiterated guidance rather than raising on Q2 earnings, so expectations were sky high.
That hints at a growth slowdown, but I’m thinking long on this one…
I’ve accumulated 140 shares.
First at $105 then at $92.
I’m betting on management.
The founders are undeniably brilliant, and have learned how to manage the company extraordinary well. Founder led companies are often a first screener for alpha for good reason. It’s their life’s mission.
Hardly anyone knows about this company somehow…
The first thing I’ll address is the 39% plunge it took a few months ago.
Management merely reiterated guidance rather than raising on Q2 earnings, so expectations were sky high.
That hints at a growth slowdown, but I’m thinking long on this one…
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 10:33 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:22 am to bayoubengals88
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 7:26 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:22 am to bayoubengals88
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 7:27 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:23 am to bayoubengals88
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 7:28 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:23 am to bayoubengals88
This is a bit hyperbolic, but it’s by far the most interactive post on X about $BLLN.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 7:30 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:23 am to bayoubengals88
What BLLN does
- Runs blood tests in its own labs, using a method that counts individual DNA molecules. That lets it spot tiny amounts of DNA from a baby or a tumor in a person's blood.
- Gets paid per test, mostly by insurers.
What it has accomplished
- Revenue grew from $72M (2023) to $305M (2025), and it expects $450–465M in 2026.
- It is profitable and has $549M in cash.
- It holds roughly 15% of the US prenatal screening market (third-party estimate).
- It went public in November 2025, raising about $314M.
- Medicare has covered Northstar Select since early 2025.
Prenatal (pregnancy) tests on the market.
Market size: over $2.5B a year
- UNITY Fetal Risk Screen: checks the baby for single-gene diseases like cystic fibrosis and sickle cell (130 genes).
Edge: uses only the mother's blood; rivals typically need the father's sample or skip these diseases.
- UNITY Aneuploidy Screen: the standard check for chromosome problems like Down syndrome, plus an optional 22q deletion add-on.
Edge: little; this is mostly a match for rivals like Natera.
- Carrier screening (UNITY Complete): checks the mother for 440+ conditions she could pass on.
- Fetal RhD and antigen test: tells whether the baby's blood type clashes with the mother's. Edge: few labs offer it, and it can spare patients unneeded treatment.
- Unity Confirm (new in 2026): captures whole baby cells to confirm a worrying result.
Edge: aims to replace the needle procedure normally used to confirm.
Cancer tests on the market (BLLN's market estimates)
- Northstar Select (over $6B): reads a tumor's mutations from blood to help pick a drug.
Edge: in BLLN's own head-to-head study it found about 50% more useful mutations than rival blood tests.
- Add-ons to Select (no separate market size given), all from the same blood draw:
- PGx: flags chemotherapy safety risks.
- Select CH: filters out false alarms from blood-cell mutations.
- Origin: predicts where a cancer started; its top guess was right 87% of the time.
- Northstar Response (over $15B): tracks whether treatment is working.
Edge: needs no tumor tissue; Natera's leading test does.
Planned tests
- Tissue-free MRD test, due by end of 2026 (over $30B): finds leftover cancer after surgery.
Edge: no tissue needed, but unproven; Natera dominates this market.
- Early cancer detection, no timeline (over $50B): screening healthy people, as GRAIL does.
Edge: none yet; BLLN hasn't started building it.
What it hopes to accomplish
- Medicare coverage for Northstar Response by year-end, so it gets paid more per test.
- The MRD launch by year-end.
- A new cancer lab built for up to 5,000 tests a day by late 2027.
- Keeping about 70% of each sales dollar after test costs while cancer testing grows.
- Eventually, early detection.
Market size, overall
- Today's tests: over $20B a year in the US.
- Including planned tests: over $100B.
Caveat: all of these are BLLN's own estimates, and they're generous. Half the $100B is early detection, which BLLN hasn't started building, and the $15B for Response assumes wide insurance coverage it doesn't have yet. Prenatal brings in about 87% of revenue today but is the smallest market, which is why cancer testing has to carry future growth.
Sources:
- BLLN S-1 (market sizes): LINK
- BLLN Q2 2026 8-K: LINK
- Northstar Origin launch: LINK
- Sacra (competitors): LINK
- Runs blood tests in its own labs, using a method that counts individual DNA molecules. That lets it spot tiny amounts of DNA from a baby or a tumor in a person's blood.
- Gets paid per test, mostly by insurers.
What it has accomplished
- Revenue grew from $72M (2023) to $305M (2025), and it expects $450–465M in 2026.
- It is profitable and has $549M in cash.
- It holds roughly 15% of the US prenatal screening market (third-party estimate).
- It went public in November 2025, raising about $314M.
- Medicare has covered Northstar Select since early 2025.
Prenatal (pregnancy) tests on the market.
Market size: over $2.5B a year
- UNITY Fetal Risk Screen: checks the baby for single-gene diseases like cystic fibrosis and sickle cell (130 genes).
Edge: uses only the mother's blood; rivals typically need the father's sample or skip these diseases.
- UNITY Aneuploidy Screen: the standard check for chromosome problems like Down syndrome, plus an optional 22q deletion add-on.
Edge: little; this is mostly a match for rivals like Natera.
- Carrier screening (UNITY Complete): checks the mother for 440+ conditions she could pass on.
- Fetal RhD and antigen test: tells whether the baby's blood type clashes with the mother's. Edge: few labs offer it, and it can spare patients unneeded treatment.
- Unity Confirm (new in 2026): captures whole baby cells to confirm a worrying result.
Edge: aims to replace the needle procedure normally used to confirm.
Cancer tests on the market (BLLN's market estimates)
- Northstar Select (over $6B): reads a tumor's mutations from blood to help pick a drug.
Edge: in BLLN's own head-to-head study it found about 50% more useful mutations than rival blood tests.
- Add-ons to Select (no separate market size given), all from the same blood draw:
- PGx: flags chemotherapy safety risks.
- Select CH: filters out false alarms from blood-cell mutations.
- Origin: predicts where a cancer started; its top guess was right 87% of the time.
- Northstar Response (over $15B): tracks whether treatment is working.
Edge: needs no tumor tissue; Natera's leading test does.
Planned tests
- Tissue-free MRD test, due by end of 2026 (over $30B): finds leftover cancer after surgery.
Edge: no tissue needed, but unproven; Natera dominates this market.
- Early cancer detection, no timeline (over $50B): screening healthy people, as GRAIL does.
Edge: none yet; BLLN hasn't started building it.
What it hopes to accomplish
- Medicare coverage for Northstar Response by year-end, so it gets paid more per test.
- The MRD launch by year-end.
- A new cancer lab built for up to 5,000 tests a day by late 2027.
- Keeping about 70% of each sales dollar after test costs while cancer testing grows.
- Eventually, early detection.
Market size, overall
- Today's tests: over $20B a year in the US.
- Including planned tests: over $100B.
Caveat: all of these are BLLN's own estimates, and they're generous. Half the $100B is early detection, which BLLN hasn't started building, and the $15B for Response assumes wide insurance coverage it doesn't have yet. Prenatal brings in about 87% of revenue today but is the smallest market, which is why cancer testing has to carry future growth.
Sources:
- BLLN S-1 (market sizes): LINK
- BLLN Q2 2026 8-K: LINK
- Northstar Origin launch: LINK
- Sacra (competitors): LINK
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 10:12 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:23 am to bayoubengals88
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 10:29 am
Posted on 10/10/26 at 6:37 am to bayoubengals88
Diagnostics have been doing well this year - GH and GRAL for example. Should continue
Posted on 10/10/26 at 7:24 am to Upperdecker
Wish I had loaded up on GRAIL at $50.
Sadly, I just didn’t know enough.
Sadly, I just didn’t know enough.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 7:26 am to bayoubengals88
I made some money on GRAL but had no idea it would appreciate so quickly. Could have made a lot more
Posted on 10/10/26 at 9:30 am to Upperdecker
HIMS owns a significant stake in GRAL. I still think HIMS is going to explode and have the current losses to prove it LOL
Posted on 10/10/26 at 10:39 am to cgrand
Last informative post.
I like the company. My four largest holdings are founder led.
Not investment advice.
The Founders
Who they are
- Oguzhan Atay, 37: CEO, co-founder and board chair. PhD in biology from Stanford and a top-honors molecular biology degree from Princeton, with minors in physics, computer science and math. Immigrant from Turkey.
- David Tsao, 36: President, CTO and co-founder. PhD in bioengineering from Rice and a physics degree from Princeton.
- They met at Princeton. As PhD students they invented the molecule-counting method all of BLLN's tests run on.
Their 10-year record
- 2016: Founded the company. 2017: Accepted into Y Combinator, a well-known startup program.
- 2020: Launched the first prenatal test.
- 2022: Raised $125M. Started offering cancer tests to research centers.
- 2023: Cancer tests went into regular clinical use.
- 2024: Raised $130M, valuing the company above $1B. About $400M raised privately in total.
- 2025: Medicare began covering Northstar Select. Turned profitable. Went public in November.
- 2026: Expected revenue of $450–465M, up from $72M in 2023.
- Rough spots: the 39% one-day stock drop in August after guidance spooked investors, and the Illumina patent lawsuit filed in May.
Overall, a strong execution record. They stuck to the step-by-step plan they set early and reached profitability before going public, which is uncommon in diagnostics.
Their stake (as of March 31, 2026)
- Each owns roughly 3 million shares, worth about $300M each at $97.
- That's roughly 7% of the company each, by my math. Each also has large option grants from June 2025 that vest monthly over six years.
- Control is much bigger than ownership. They hold all the special Class B shares, which get 15 votes each versus 1 for regular shares. Atay controls about 31% of the vote and Tsao about 32%, so together they effectively control the company. All insiders together control about 78%.
Insider selling
- Both have been selling steadily through pre-scheduled trading plans, which executives set up in advance so their sales can't be timed on inside news.
- Over roughly four months, Atay sold about 190,000 shares (around $23M) and Tsao about 83,000 (around $9M), by my tally of a third-party tracker. That's a small slice of their holdings.
- Neither has bought shares on the open market.
What it means for you
- Plus: two deeply technical founders with most of their wealth tied to the stock and six years of unvested options keeping them in place.
- Minus: you get little say. With about 63% of the vote between them, outside shareholders can't force changes if they disagree with strategy.
Sources:
- BLLN 2026 proxy statement: LINK
- Insider transactions (Quantisnow): LINK
- Fierce Biotech (funding history): LINK
- YC interview: LINK
I like the company. My four largest holdings are founder led.
Not investment advice.
The Founders
Who they are
- Oguzhan Atay, 37: CEO, co-founder and board chair. PhD in biology from Stanford and a top-honors molecular biology degree from Princeton, with minors in physics, computer science and math. Immigrant from Turkey.
- David Tsao, 36: President, CTO and co-founder. PhD in bioengineering from Rice and a physics degree from Princeton.
- They met at Princeton. As PhD students they invented the molecule-counting method all of BLLN's tests run on.
Their 10-year record
- 2016: Founded the company. 2017: Accepted into Y Combinator, a well-known startup program.
- 2020: Launched the first prenatal test.
- 2022: Raised $125M. Started offering cancer tests to research centers.
- 2023: Cancer tests went into regular clinical use.
- 2024: Raised $130M, valuing the company above $1B. About $400M raised privately in total.
- 2025: Medicare began covering Northstar Select. Turned profitable. Went public in November.
- 2026: Expected revenue of $450–465M, up from $72M in 2023.
- Rough spots: the 39% one-day stock drop in August after guidance spooked investors, and the Illumina patent lawsuit filed in May.
Overall, a strong execution record. They stuck to the step-by-step plan they set early and reached profitability before going public, which is uncommon in diagnostics.
Their stake (as of March 31, 2026)
- Each owns roughly 3 million shares, worth about $300M each at $97.
- That's roughly 7% of the company each, by my math. Each also has large option grants from June 2025 that vest monthly over six years.
- Control is much bigger than ownership. They hold all the special Class B shares, which get 15 votes each versus 1 for regular shares. Atay controls about 31% of the vote and Tsao about 32%, so together they effectively control the company. All insiders together control about 78%.
Insider selling
- Both have been selling steadily through pre-scheduled trading plans, which executives set up in advance so their sales can't be timed on inside news.
- Over roughly four months, Atay sold about 190,000 shares (around $23M) and Tsao about 83,000 (around $9M), by my tally of a third-party tracker. That's a small slice of their holdings.
- Neither has bought shares on the open market.
What it means for you
- Plus: two deeply technical founders with most of their wealth tied to the stock and six years of unvested options keeping them in place.
- Minus: you get little say. With about 63% of the vote between them, outside shareholders can't force changes if they disagree with strategy.
Sources:
- BLLN 2026 proxy statement: LINK
- Insider transactions (Quantisnow): LINK
- Fierce Biotech (funding history): LINK
- YC interview: LINK
Posted on 10/10/26 at 1:53 pm to bayoubengals88
Maybe the best one:
Posted on 10/10/26 at 2:51 pm to bayoubengals88
Someone else turned me onto this one about a month ago but I didn’t pull the trigger.
Now with a motion and a second, I have to make a decision.
Now with a motion and a second, I have to make a decision.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:34 pm to JperiodCperiod
And the price is lower…
Who was it and what did they say?
Who was it and what did they say?
Posted on 10/10/26 at 10:28 pm to bayoubengals88
It was second hand. My friend gets some tips from his friend who is bigger player than either of us. I don’t recall their thesis just that they say a quick 30% gain but with big long term potential. My friend had purchased in the 90s and it had gone up since then but pulled back for a buying opportunity.
I was too entrenched in HGraf to really listen to other options. That play may be shifting in my mind.
I was too entrenched in HGraf to really listen to other options. That play may be shifting in my mind.
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