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re: $1,500 Gold Just Passed It

Posted on 4/20/11 at 9:10 am to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133528 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 9:10 am to
The stocks that I bought a little over two years ago have doubled in price since then plus I have been paid almost $15,000 in dividends on those stocks. My advice has done well, thanks for asking.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 9:24 am to
quote:

This would suggest that gold is currently undervalued


I'm just asking, I'm not saying it is or is not, but what about this suggests that gold is currently undervalued? FWIW I think WNCTiger, Rivers, RaisnCane, and TuDog are all the same person.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 9:26 am to
Actually I take that back, WNCTiger is just the non-AAPL version of Scoop.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 10:19 am to
quote:

I'm just asking, I'm not saying it is or is not, but what about this suggests that gold is currently undervalued?


Russian pointed out that gold has under performed based on the inflation adjusted price. If gold were to return to it's inflation adjusted price, the price per oz. would be $2,400. Gold appears to be undervalued based on that metric alone.

BTW, I own no PMs (except a coin collection and few grams of natural gold nuggets). My investments are in "paper"
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 11:18 am to
That implies that gold wasn't in a bubble at the baseline price. Given that its managed to not reach that price in the past 30 years or whatever, I think its safe to say that it was in a bubble. That's like saying "based on the fact that the Nikkei is still below its 1987 inflation adjusted price, it must be undervalued." Its backwards.
Posted by goodgrin
Atlanta, GA
Member since Nov 2003
6786 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 11:45 am to
quote:

Who cares whether $75k is a lot of money, its money, therefore, its practically worthless to begin with


Actually, dollars are currency, not money. But, I don't necessarily disagree with you other than maybe phrasing it as "its practically going to be worth less over time, but in the meantime, it'll buy me a lot of silver and gold".
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Money is any object or record, that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given country or socio-economic context


LINK
Posted by Shankopotomus
Social Distanced
Member since Feb 2009
21078 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:13 pm to
Honestly if America doesn't get its debt under control along with the EU among others....why wouldn't gold continue it's parabolic rise? The detractors think that gold is experiencing a bubble....but what will make it burst?
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

Honestly if America doesn't get its debt under control along with the EU among others....why wouldn't gold continue it's parabolic rise? The detractors think that gold is experiencing a bubble....but what will make it burst?


Alchemy?

Seriously, if the Fed terminates QE2 in June and does not start up QE3, PMs should level off for a good while?
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

Honestly if America doesn't get its debt under control along with the EU among others....why wouldn't gold continue it's parabolic rise?


Nothing.

quote:

The detractors think that gold is experiencing a bubble....but what will make it burst?


The opposite of question 1.
Posted by Shankopotomus
Social Distanced
Member since Feb 2009
21078 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:32 pm to
is anyone out there selling credit default swaps on US Treasuries?
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:44 pm to
Yep, they sure are.
Posted by Shankopotomus
Social Distanced
Member since Feb 2009
21078 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:46 pm to
this is really available out there? who is selling the insurance?
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:52 pm to
Could be anyone, banks, hedge funds, insurance companies...but these guys probably do a big chunk of it. LINK ][LINK]

eta: Be careful calling it insurance peeps get touchy about that.

etaa: US CDS
This post was edited on 4/20/11 at 1:54 pm
Posted by Shankopotomus
Social Distanced
Member since Feb 2009
21078 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 1:58 pm to
I use term purposely

Pretty interesting stuff, I wonder if anyone on the board is betting on the US to default on their own treasuries....especially if they stop QE2 and don't go on to QE3
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 2:15 pm to
Although we've got people that claim 75k is just pennies, I highly doubt anyone here has anything remotely close to enough (and without question lacking the expertise to even begin to figure out how to execute the transaction) money/currency/gold/silver/paladium/horses to do so. Others will debate this, but again, we print our own money. Its like an option contract, default, or print more money. Choosing default would be like choosing to exercise an option out of the money, its factually illogical.
Posted by joshnorris14
Florida
Member since Jan 2009
46672 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

The stocks that I bought a little over two years ago have doubled in price since then plus I have been paid almost $15,000 in dividends on those stocks. My advice has done well, thanks for asking.


Should've bought Silver then.

By my count it's up about 250% in one year.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133528 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 2:58 pm to
And much in dividends would I have received from it?
Posted by joshnorris14
Florida
Member since Jan 2009
46672 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

And much in dividends would I have received from it?


Given that you were paid $15,000 in dividends in two years, I would wager that extra 50% (give or take a few points) in one year would cover that and then some.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133528 posts
Posted on 4/20/11 at 3:03 pm to
You lose lots of wagers, don't you? Explain negative interest rates again, please.....
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