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Yet another CFP Committee complaint thread. !!WiTh NuMbERrrS!!

Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:09 am
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:09 am
Dont want to TL;DR and crowd the thread with a bunch of numbers so Im not going to show my work unless someone requests it.



Ohio State marquee opponents rankings
Format: ranking@gametime, currentranking teamname (record, loss)

#UR, #20 Cincinnati (10-2, Memphis)
#13, #8 Wisconsin (10-2, Illinois)
#8, #10 Penn State (10-2, Minnesota)
#13, #14 Michigan (9-3, Wisconsin, Penn State)

TOTALS - #11.3, #13



LSUs marquee opponents rankings
Format: ranking@gametime, currentranking teamname (record, loss)

#9, #UR Texas (7-5, OU, TCU, IowaSt, Baylor)
#7, #9 Florida (10-2, UGA)
#9, #11 Auburn (9-3, UF, UGA)
#3, #12 Alabama (10-2, Auburn)

TOTALS - #7, #10.6



Last week, when LSU had the better opponents, the argument was "eye test". Now, when Ohio State has the better opponents, the argument is "opponents rankings". Since this is their latest goalpost position we'll go ahead and play that game.

Those that would defend the current position of the CFP Committee make the argument that Ohio State does, in fact, have better wins so LSU doesnt have an argument(despite the fact that wasnt the criteria last week and that the numbers above dont agree with that assertion). So for those of us questioning the CFP Committee, the complaint, besides the ever moving goalposts, is that the CFP cant be trusted(which is the very nature of the complaint) so how can one use the Committees own subjective rankings of Ohio States and LSUs opponents rankings to determine which team has better wins? How do we know the Committee isnt just overvaluing OSUs opponents and undervaluing LSUs opponents to bolster their positions? So we need some outside comparison. I present -

Ohio States opponents 4 year average recruiting class rankings

Cincinnati - #66
Wisconsin - #37
Penn State - #13
Michigan - #11

TOTAL - #32

LSUs opponents 4 year average recruiting class rankings

Texas - #10
Florida - #12
Auburn - #10
Alabama - #2
(TxA&M - #13)

TOTAL - #9



Ohio States opponents strength of schedule

Cincinnati - #55
Wisconsin - #6
Penn State - #7
Michigan - #3

TOTAL - #18

LSUs opponents strength of schedule

Texas - #17
Florida - #8
Auburn - #2
Alabama - #5
(TxA&M - #9)

TOTAL - #8



So. Now. You tell me. Which team played better opponents?



BTW, InB4 but MUH dEfEnsE!!

Ohio States opponents offense ranking TOTAL

#36.25

LSUs opponents offense ranking TOTAL

#22.5
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 1:41 pm
Posted by watsonsdaddy
Lutcher, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2018
9 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:32 am to
Very Well Done! Says it all
Posted by 225Tyga
Member since Oct 2013
15813 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:35 am to
If we win Saturday, we will be #1 on Sunday.

/thread
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:35 am to
Thanks, brother.
Posted by Adam4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2008
13760 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:37 am to
What's the margin of victory for both teams against their marquee games? Honestly curious
Posted by Lsu101205
Atlanta, GA
Member since Jan 2014
3078 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:37 am to
The issue with looking at the numbers is that they are not.

They control the narrative, they control the rankings, they are basically forcing exactly what they want.

the differences in the coaches/ap and the rankings say it all. They moved a Wiscy team with a loss from Illinois and #1 above a Florida team with a loss from #2 and #4.

Not to mention they shoved Minnesota up towards the top when it was the possible OSU opponent. But now that they lost they just shoved them down while forcing Wiscy up.

They claim they do not look ahead to determine where the current rankings are. Which is true, but they definitely seem to stack the deck in favor of it playing out how they want.

With a win over UGA, realistically LSU should have 4 wins against teams CURRENTLY in the top 10. But they are doing all they can to make sure its only 2.

Just wait until Baylor/OK and Utah/Oregon is in front of Alabama and Auburn to make sure they are outside the top 10.
Posted by DocRock
S. Alabama
Member since Apr 2009
649 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:39 am to
Very solid post, man! Very informative. You exposed every angle of this. Thanks!
Posted by geauxtigers33
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2014
13734 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:39 am to
Good work.

I think if Ohio State jumped LSU this week instead of last week there would have been less outrage because they could have just said the resumes are pretty close but we think Ohio State has played a little better. Okay I can live with that.

But the first ranking and last week’s ranking LSU had a far better resume (in the first ranking) and still a better resume (last week) and all we heard was eye test this and eye test that and most complete team.

If LSU wins this week their resume would be back to being better. They would have equal number of current top 25 wins but one of Ohio State’s is Cincy.
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:44 am to
quote:

If we win Saturday, we will be #1 on Sunday.

/thread


Thats certainly a possibility but if LSU isnt then, considering the numbers in the OP, we will certainly have to question the integrity of the Committee.

Ive always been of the position that the CFPCom ideally wants a team to represent each region of the US to maximize peoples involvement and excitement. That increases ratings -> increases ad revenue -> increases $$$.

I think they were hoping that Oregon would make it. Now that they havent they are going to look at Utah to draw the West Coast eyeballs but considering its Utah they may push Oklahoma in to get the Texas eyeballs. I know. Texans arent exactly fans of OU but it doesnt matter why you watch, just that you do. Being polarizing is better than being irrelevant. Plenty of Texans are going to tune in to root against OU. Advertisers dont care why youre watching. Apathy is the enemy.
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:48 am to
quote:

What's the margin of victory for both teams against their marquee games? Honestly curious


Thats where it gets complicated. You would have to factor in so many variables. Its why these things are best left to computer algorithms. Just to name a few, strength of opponents and all that goes into figuring that out, points scored in junk garbage time, points scored on 'fluke' plays, injuries, ejections, etc.

I would imagine if you just went with margin of victory Ohio State would have a decided advantage. I think if you used a comprehensive/adjusted margin of victory it might tell a different story. I really have no idea.

Its beyond my ability to compute. Its the whole point that most are making. They pulled a bait and switch to gain human control over the postseason. They dont want a dispassionate voter(computer formula using on-field metrics) resulting in accurate and equitable matchups. They want an entertainment product.
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 10:52 am
Posted by TchPowDog
Zachary, LA
Member since Sep 2015
4798 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:55 am to
LOL at counting Texas. And you didn't even do your genius Math right.

quote:

#9, #UR Texas (7-5, OU, TCU, IowaSt, Baylor)
#7, #9 Florida (10-2, UGA)
#9, #11 Auburn (9-3, UF, UGA)
#3, #12 Alabama (10-2, Auburn)

TOTALS - #7, #10.6

You can't get that 10.6 figure without including Texas if you included them in the first number. What is Texas currently ranked? 35ish? This means the second number would be more like 16.75ish

This type of shite is what flat-earthers and Holocaust deniers do.

Teams' recruiting class rankings don't matter - see FSU, USC, Texas, A&M.
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 11:00 am
Posted by asullivan12
Many, LA
Member since Nov 2015
1880 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 10:56 am to
Have an up vote good sir
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:00 am to
quote:

You can't get that 10.6 figure without including Texas if you included them in the first number. What is Texas currently ranked? 35ish? This means the second number would be more like 16.75ish

This type of shite is what flat-earthers and Holocaust deniers do.


Hey a-hole.

I did the same for Ohio State.

quote:

Ohio State marquee opponents rankings
Format: ranking@gametime, currentranking teamname (record, loss)

#UR, #20 Cincinnati (10-2, Memphis)
#13, #8 Wisconsin (10-2, Illinois)
#8, #10 Penn State (10-2, Minnesota)
#13, #14 Michigan (9-3, Wisconsin, Penn State)

TOTALS - #11.3, #13


You think Im going to undermine my own credibility? Who do you think I am? A CFP Committee member?

Posted by FlaFlash
Member since Dec 2019
234 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:01 am to
Wtf are you talking about. Texas and Texas a&m both would be minimum td favorites over cinn. Good god man, look at cinncis results this year. A complete joke. They wouldn't be bowl eligible with a&Ms schedule, yet they are a quality top 25 win. Give me a fkn break.
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:08 am to
quote:

Teams' recruiting class rankings don't matter - see FSU, USC, Texas, A&M.


Yeah, no shite.

It doesnt factor in coaching and a shite ton of other variables.

The point was, even if in vain, to find some other subjective criteria for determining the relative strengths of these opponents.

I did the best I could without spending the countless time and energy needed to formulate the highly complex algorithm necessary to accurately parse out the college football world and its incredible imparity.

You think you can do better. Please do.

Honestly. Im not being facetious. All most want is the truth. As close as we can come. Youre not going to get that with 13 humans watching games on a laptop and dropping beans in a jar.

We can do better. We HAD better. Its clear now that they dont want to do better.
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 11:12 am
Posted by TchPowDog
Zachary, LA
Member since Sep 2015
4798 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:36 am to
Jesus Christ, dude. The CFP thinks OSU is slightly better than LSU - and they're justified in thinking that. OSU has shown more consistency throughout the season. And they've destroyed everyone.

All you frickheads on here bitch and cry and moan every god damned weekend about our defense saying "We won't win a championship with this defense" and "we'll lose 4 games with this defense", then you bitch and cry and moan when the CFP penalizes LSU for their defense. Grow up, children and quit being dishonest and biased. The CFP is NOT conspiring to keep OSU #1 - they have no gain from it.
Posted by BigDaddySims
Deridder
Member since Nov 2016
610 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:53 am to
The best offense Ohio State played was ranked #47.
Posted by DeathByTossDive225
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2019
3952 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 11:57 am to
Just curious are the opponent offensive rankings adjusted to not include the games where they played the team whose defense is in question (LSU/OSU respectively)?
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

Jesus Christ, dude. The CFP thinks OSU is slightly better than LSU - and they're justified in thinking that.


I just showed you why there is little if any reason to think that.

quote:

OSU has shown more consistency throughout the season. And they've destroyed everyone.


I just showed you why that is. And do you ever think that maybe coaching philosophy might have something to do with that? Some coaches dont run up the score. Some coaches do. Some coaches pull players and rotate more with a lead. Some dont. Some coaches play conservative with a lead. Some play aggressive and keep their foot on the gas.

The message the committee is sending is that you should play weak teams that you can out talent and run the score up on. OSU at #1. Clemson at #3. Saban played that game and got burned. Broke his QB. CEO has stated that when he gets up two scores in the 2nd half he will pull Burrow. Thats a coaching philosophy that doesnt do him any favors in the eyes of the committee.

Whether they admit it or not, blowouts give them priapism.

quote:

All you frickheads on here bitch and cry and moan every god damned weekend about our defense saying "We won't win a championship with this defense" and "we'll lose 4 games with this defense",


I didnt. So "all you frickheads" are actually 'some frickheads'. And teams and units get better or worse through out the season. Sometimes all they need is to be challenged by telling they arent good enough and they are hurting their teams chances. Thats why coaches play up the disrespect card.

quote:

then you bitch and cry and moan when the CFP penalizes LSU for their defense


Thats not what most are bitching about. Most are bitching about the inconsistentcy and the selective application of their own criteria. Rob Mullens is all over the place. One week its 'eye test'. The next week its 'strength of schedule'. Next it might be 'Theres been too much movement, we are going to leave things where they are. We as a committee dont want to be seen as fickle and wishy-washy'.

quote:

Grow up, children and quit being dishonest and biased.


Thats not me so Im hope its not me youre referring to. Ive been extremely objective. Ohio State may very well be the best team but Im challenging the committes intent and integrity. Im just doing it by highlighting their inconsistency and LSU happens to be part of that conversation. Ive done the same with other teams in the past. I was furious when they left out Penn State a while back.

quote:

. The CFP is NOT conspiring to keep OSU #1 - they have no gain from it.


Oh. Youre one of those people.

Everything is always above board and people dont conspire.






For fricksake. Dont I even get an attaboy for trying to make sense of this shite? Whats your contribution? All youve done is call people names and stir shite.
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 12:19 pm
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 12/4/19 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

Just curious are the opponent offensive rankings adjusted to not include the games where they played the team whose defense is in question (LSU/OSU respectively)?


No. I pulled the offensive rankings as they were for all games leading up to today.
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