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Message
re: WCWS preview and predictions LSU softball
Posted on 5/31/17 at 9:19 pm to Bhs83
Posted on 5/31/17 at 9:19 pm to Bhs83
quote:
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Statistically driven outcomes are moot in any single situation. The jest of the analysis on OBP is spanned over a given number of games. In any one vs one situation the percentages are removed and it becomes a coin flip.
If I need a base runner, percentages say the .430 OBP is more likely to get on base than the .425 OBP. That is the whole intent of using that statistic. It tells you unequivocally which hitter is more apt to reach. Which is the better hitter in a single at bat in terms of getting a base hit is a different question.
quote:
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher,
It's not dependent solely on the pitcher. The hitter and the ability of that hitter to control the strike zone, foul off pitches and understand the zone are intricate in drawing walks. You have heard the old cliche "working the count" or "tough out". That stems from hitters that are very difficult to induce to chase pitches or they don't often swing and miss.
Check your hitters and look at OBP and strikeouts to walk ratios. That will allow anyone to determine who the toughest outs are in any lineup. If a player walks more than they strike out then they are an upper level hitter.
If walking and getting on base were easy, everyone would do it. It's not. OBP is the king of statistics and scoring runs.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 9:21 pm
0
Posted on 5/31/17 at 9:21 pm to Bhs83
quote:
The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.
BA = H/AB
OBP = (H + BB + HBP)/PA
Looks like the hitter has plenty to do with on base percentage, while also including things like sacrifices that will only hurt the percentage and not add to it.
Besides, discounting a player's ability to take a walk isn't very appropriate. Some hitter's have more plate discipline than others. A walk can't be put entirely on the opposing pitcher's "decision," a batter's ability to not be fooled on a pitch and swinging at junk is pretty big. And a hit by pitches seem to happen fairly frequently in softball, more so than baseball.
quote:
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Your hypothetical would depend on the situation entirely. Trying to start a rally? Trying to drive in someone that is already on base? Slugging ability of the hitters in question?
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:36 am to Bhs83
quote:
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully.
In response to Mulerider, so do I. I held off responding - I think he was really responding to you. However, he was indirectly responding to me.
Bhs83, I so totally agree with you.
OBP, as a stat, implies that hitters (slapper or regular) and walkers/HBP players control the game of offensive baseball or fast pitch softball. They absolutely do not. Anyone ever hear of runners LOB? I did not see this LOB stat anywhere in this thread...
Any of those games are won by scoring the most runs at the end of a multiple inning game (regular, run-ruled, extra inning, etc.), whether it is baseball or fast pitch softball. Maybe I'm "uninformed".
Questions?
So, what contributes most to runs? Mulerider seems to think OBP (via slap hitters or slappers, even singles or more hitters, walkers, letting a pitch hit you, etc.) is key. OK. That's his opinion.
Sounds like high school to me. High school teams do not have the elite infield players that major college softball teams have. Argue with that? Probably not. Nobody has brought up this point or at least amplified it. Typical major college level slap hitters have a BA and an OBP entirely in line with regular hitters. But they produce very few of the runs offensively to win the game.
Enter RBI. A stat so much more important in this major college softball game/NPF, major college BB/MLB than OBP I cannot tell you where to start talking winning games at these levels.
Big advantage in high school to be an extremely fast slapper. No advantage in major college competition.
Speed of "slappers" comes to forefront in major college softball when they are on base. Big plus. Their speed comes to forefront defensively in outfield or infield. Big plus. But, not necessarily while batting.
Name of the game is runs scored on offense. OBP as a primary indicator ignores the LOB statistic. Several of the "slapper" advocates have already conceded this truism (they have seen slapper teams load the bases only to produce no runs that inning because the 3rd out was produced with a well positioned infield "throwing out" runner at home.
Slappers are fine (even great) in high school. Particularly when you overwhelm the other team athlete wise. Slappers are not so good at major college level. Watch the games...
Big time hitters (not "happy feet" slappers) matter more at the major college softball level, IMO. The RBI stat is so much better than the OBP stat at this level. It's unbelievable how many people fail to recognize this change in methodology necessary to deal with the talent level change in the major college softball game...
In no way am I denigrating our LSU teams slappers. We have what we have. We are great. Congratulations to Bailey Landry for her triple to drive home a run in LSU's 3rd game win. She is super. Exceptional slapper that is more of a hitter than slapper. Keep it up. So she can slap or hit/power slap big time. Hope LSU gets many more of her type in the future.
NPF (pro softball), major college baseball (LSU Tigers), and MLB pretty much ignore OBP. Remember, LOB. What counts is slugging %, RBI, HR, etc. Runs is the name of the game. Not bases touched only to be LOB...
Posted on 6/1/17 at 7:33 am to TaserTiger
quote:
Any of those games are won by scoring the most runs at the end of a multiple inning game (regular, run-ruled, extra inning, etc.), whether it is baseball or fast pitch softball. Maybe I'm "uninformed".
Questions?
So, what contributes most to runs? Mulerider seems to think OBP (via slap hitters or slappers, even singles or more hitters, walkers, letting a pitch hit you, etc.) is key.
Have to have runners on base to score runs. Not everyone is going to hit a home run every time up.
quote:
Several of the "slapper" advocates have already conceded this truism (they have seen slapper teams load the bases only to produce no runs that inning because the 3rd out was produced with a well positioned infield "throwing out" runner at home.
Is anyone advocating for a team full of slappers? Pretty sure the folks in here discussing slappers in the lineup have implied to only want about three of them in the lineup (1, 2, 9). I don't know how the numbers play out as to whether that is good strategy or not, but slappers do have their place in softball. Ole Miss basically beat LSU because of slappers.
quote:
MLB pretty much ignore OBP.
No, they don't.
quote:
What counts is slugging %,RBI
Agreed...and in combination with OBP, on-base plus slugging (OPS), indicates how good a hitter might be at driving in runs and getting into position to score more runs. And RBI will be a byproduct of such things.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:19 am to Bhs83
Great write up....
Predictions.....first round
UF
LSU
UW
BAYLOR
Predictions.....first round
UF
LSU
UW
BAYLOR
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:26 am to Sasquatch Smash
GAME DAY
Lets kick arse today.
Lets kick arse today.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:53 am to Tigerbait357
Also there was a couple cool videos on the softball page
of Beth breaking the news to Jaquish of her All American honors and a video of Beth and Jaquish calling her Dad. Was awesome too see, its a pretty special moment.
of Beth breaking the news to Jaquish of her All American honors and a video of Beth and Jaquish calling her Dad. Was awesome too see, its a pretty special moment.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 11:42 am to TaserTiger
quote:
Speed of "slappers" comes to forefront in major college softball when they are on base. Big plus. Their speed comes to forefront defensively in outfield or infield. Big plus. But, not necessarily while batting.
quote:
Typically, college coaches want to see slapper get Home to 1st in less than 2.9 seconds. The elite slappers are going to be under 2.7 seconds. The truly great ones get there in the 2.5s.
So you still think home to first speed does not help? or matter?
slapping: softball's secret weapon
quote:
because the 3rd out was produced with a well positioned infield "throwing out" runner at home.
as i have laid out to an earlier poster there are PROS and CONS to the infield/outfield playing a slapper. Not just pros. I laid out the pros. A con is it could be easier to get a hard one hopper over infields head(if driven down at a greater angle than normal)and easier for a bloop to fall in between infield/outfield, pulling down right field line, or just swinging away over outfield, etc. all depends what angle the ball is hit at on infield hits. the middle infield moves in to be able to stop one hoppers hit at a normal angle before they go over heads playing at normal positions. It also cuts down on the angle making the hole smaller to get ball through should it be hit there e.g. 5-6 hole.
slappers are meant to get on and have big hitters drive them in. Nobody is arguing that at all.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 11:51 am
Posted on 6/1/17 at 11:47 am to Fat Bastard
I think speed and slappers are much more successful against teams like Florida.
Utilize the dirt and speed of the slapper.
Slappers are extremely deadly when they have versatility like Landry, they can bunt, slap the ball through the infield, swing away. Its what makes them unpredictable.
Utilize the dirt and speed of the slapper.
Slappers are extremely deadly when they have versatility like Landry, they can bunt, slap the ball through the infield, swing away. Its what makes them unpredictable.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 11:54 am to Tigerbait357
BALLGAME
thanks a lot TAMU
thanks a lot TAMU
Posted on 6/1/17 at 11:58 am to Fat Bastard
Its not even close 
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:04 pm to TaserTiger
and there is a slapper for TAMU....hit it to the SS and easily outran the throw. I'll be damned. I thought I read here home to first speed did not matter necessarily?
That ball was not driven hard into dirt either. not over her head and not much airtime. She just outran it. well, well, well.
AND, the middle infielders WERE playing in front of the baseline as I have elaborated about in earlier posts as far as defensive positioning to help againt slappers. Guess what? she still outran the throw!
great job slapper! You just proved my arguments and points and debunked tasertiger's post about home to first speed. 
That ball was not driven hard into dirt either. not over her head and not much airtime. She just outran it. well, well, well.
AND, the middle infielders WERE playing in front of the baseline as I have elaborated about in earlier posts as far as defensive positioning to help againt slappers. Guess what? she still outran the throw!
great job slapper! You just proved my arguments and points and debunked tasertiger's post about home to first speed. This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:06 pm to Fat Bastard
Power won't beat Florida, but speed will.
I don't think A&M has the tools to win this, at least we have a lot more speed.
Plus I still think Jaquish can hit anyone
I don't think A&M has the tools to win this, at least we have a lot more speed.
Plus I still think Jaquish can hit anyone
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:23 pm to Tigerbait357
Well...that 5 run lead might as well be 100 at this point.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:24 pm to Sasquatch Smash
So much for a good game
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:29 pm to Tigerbait357
quote:
So much for a good game
i tried telling people! TAMU had no business being here. Knew UF would kill them. 8-0 now.
we better get ready for barnhill now. if we win. unless tim throws delanie at us. This is why i wanted UF in other bracket! TAMU about to get RUN RULED in OKC! What a disgrace.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:33 pm to Fat Bastard
A&M
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:33 pm to drpepper23
I didnt want to say fat okie.
Dr pepper amen.
A lot of big boned girls can pitch hard. Bless her.
Guys want to imagine having sex with the athletes. Enormous pitchers, not so much.
One year NW won. The pitcher was an OT 9.2
Dr pepper amen.
A lot of big boned girls can pitch hard. Bless her.
Guys want to imagine having sex with the athletes. Enormous pitchers, not so much.
One year NW won. The pitcher was an OT 9.2
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:34 pm to Sasquatch Smash
8 now lol
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:34 pm to SaltyNutSnack
At least we will start on time
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