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re: WCWS preview and predictions LSU softball
Posted on 5/31/17 at 12:36 pm to Tigerbait357
Posted on 5/31/17 at 12:36 pm to Tigerbait357
quote:
You are replying to the following post:
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WCWS preview and predictions LSU softball by Tigerbait357
Its rare to have hoover and walljasper type pitchers.
I still think LSU will be fine. I know a lot of people want to knock on Maribeth but I truly think her issues are all completely mental. Even since she was nailed in the face its been extremely hard. She needs to mentally be there to be where we want her to be. She has some really nice pitches, I think with our loaded staff it will allow her time to settle in and continue to develop as well.
Sunseri will be wonderful for us, her success on travel ball level spoke volumes as well
Gorsuch was the best pitcher in her class pre injury. Just needs to get her confidence back
0
Posted on 5/31/17 at 2:01 pm to Bhs83
Well done.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 2:42 pm to Lsujacket66
quote:
Lsujacket66
Is there a backstory with you and Wickersham?
I don't understand all the hate. I've seen her play in person many many times and do not see the stuff you see.
If she was that bad she wouldn't be recruited by a lot of major programs.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:20 pm to Tigerbait357
quote:
there a backstory with you and Wickersham?
I don't understand all the hate. I've seen her play in person many many times and do not see the stuff you see.
If she was that bad she wouldn't be recruited by a lot of major programs.
I've seen her play vs travel ball quality players 3 times and she got rocked all 3 early and often. Throws fairly hard but very little movement.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:44 pm to Mulerider
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully. I know many elevate OBP above that of Batting Average, but I dont think it should be that way. A player wins the batting championship for having the highest batting average, not the highest on base percentage. And when someone wins the Triple Crown, its Batting Average, RBI's and Home Runs. If OBP was the ultimate statistic, there'd be recognition and an award for the person with the highest OBP. There isn't, and its because it's not as tell tale as many of you think it is.
Jaquish is a perfect example. Quite possibly the best player ever to attend LSU, the most natural softball player we have ever had, has an astronomical OBP. What is it? .521 or something like that?
The purpose of OBP is to give an after the fact statistic that takes into consideration walks and sacrifice flies. Lets say Jaquish has a .331 batting average, and a .521 OBP, 62 walks, and just one sacrifice fly.
Hypothetically, you cannot assume that in each of the 62 times she walked she'd actually get a hit, and that is exactly what OBP does. If you really want to take a theoretical guess at how many times she'd get a hit, out of those 60 walks, you go back to her batting average and you can guess she'd get a hit 33% of the times she was actually walked (based on her .331 batting average).
The reason I say OBP is an after the fact stat is because it is dependent on the pitcher possibly walking the batter, not the batter choosing not to swing at four pitches that are not strikes.
It played out this way. Remember when they were all walking her.. ? Her OBP went thru the roof. Her batting average stayed somewhere around .365. Then, instead of walking her, they started pitching to her, and suddenly her batting average is down to .331. See?
OBP is a bloated number influenced not by the batter but the opposing pitcher. (Of course, situations require sacrifice flies but those instances have been rare). Yeah it takes a hitter willing to work the pitcher, but walks arent numerous in elite softball.
Slappers are not likely to get walked intentionally. Gasso shifts her defense (yeah it bites her in the butt sometimes, but she aint going to intentionally walk a slapper.
In a game like what we have coming up, UCLA, Garcia probably wont walk Jaquish intentionally, and so it falls back on the batting average, not the OBP. If the pitcher is not walking anyone, the OBP goes out the window.
I cannot imagine a coach recruiting and coming upon two players... one with a .350 batting average and a .440 OBP, and another with a .425 batting average and a .430 OBP and going with the .350 hitter because the OBP is higher. Nobody does that.
I cannot imagine at a point when a pinch hitter is needed in a clutch situation and a pitcher has only walked one person that they coach would look at two possible hitters, one with a .330 average and a .430 OBP and then look at another with a .410 average and a .425 OBP and go with the .330 hitter. OBP is too walk-dependent, and the chance to walk rests mostly in the hands of the pitcher, not the batter.
OBP cannot be used as a predictor because it is dependent upon the pitcher's performance/choice to walk the batter. The only other factor that comes in is sacrifice flies, and we rarely ever see that happen.
I have read opposing opinions about Batting average vs OBP, but they all make the assumption that the batter will have a chance to watch four balls go by.
Elite pitchers may walk 2 or 3 batters per game. Once they get up to five or six they are pulled.
As for the comment about me lumping in all the slappers together, the reason I put the 60% figure in there is so I would NOT be lumping them all together. I am guessing 60% of slapper hits are INFIELD hits that move the runners one base at a time.
Of course, some runners are too slow to score from second on a hit that goes into the outfield, but generally runners on second do score. I cant cover all the bases writing about this, I shouldnt have to. Everybody knows its given that a slow runner might not be able to score from second base on a hit into the outfield.
Me saying Dawson was a .400 hitter wasnt a slight. 400 is way above average. We only have one .400 hitter on the team right now.
When I said “set the world on fire” I am talking about Mendes (Oklahoma), Lorenz last year (Florida), Garcia this year on the mound, Romero last year, etc. I have always pushed for Nicky to start, at least at DP, and I have always said she has the best swing on the team, hands down. She might end up with a .430 career average and steal 35 bases a year, and she is fast as lightning, but she is not Nicole Mendes, Lorenz, etc. I am hoping next year she starts and I believe she deserves to. I believe she should have gotten much, much more exposure this year, but that's Beth, and Beth knows more than I do about all this.
Good slappers might be a key component, but they are like pawns in a chess game. It's good to have one up front and one in the back, but if you got six slappers starting, you are going to throw the team back to the days when SEC was mostly small-ball and the wide open, swing away teams in the Big 12 and Pac 12 were killing everybody else.
One more thing, the regular slapper is going to get pulled out and a pinch hitter sent in in the event a sacrifice fly, or an outfield hit is needed. Rest assured, too, when the season winds down and the opponents start getting better and better, the defenses are better and if you are going to slap against Oklahoma, Oregon, etc , their first and third baseman will be up there waiting. That's the reason why the swing away teams wins championships, the defenses are rock solid when it comes to the WCWS.
I was going to crack a joke about Barnhill's throws to first base, but I betcha Walton has her throwing overhand all day every day after what happened in the first Bama game.
Jaquish is a perfect example. Quite possibly the best player ever to attend LSU, the most natural softball player we have ever had, has an astronomical OBP. What is it? .521 or something like that?
The purpose of OBP is to give an after the fact statistic that takes into consideration walks and sacrifice flies. Lets say Jaquish has a .331 batting average, and a .521 OBP, 62 walks, and just one sacrifice fly.
Hypothetically, you cannot assume that in each of the 62 times she walked she'd actually get a hit, and that is exactly what OBP does. If you really want to take a theoretical guess at how many times she'd get a hit, out of those 60 walks, you go back to her batting average and you can guess she'd get a hit 33% of the times she was actually walked (based on her .331 batting average).
The reason I say OBP is an after the fact stat is because it is dependent on the pitcher possibly walking the batter, not the batter choosing not to swing at four pitches that are not strikes.
It played out this way. Remember when they were all walking her.. ? Her OBP went thru the roof. Her batting average stayed somewhere around .365. Then, instead of walking her, they started pitching to her, and suddenly her batting average is down to .331. See?
OBP is a bloated number influenced not by the batter but the opposing pitcher. (Of course, situations require sacrifice flies but those instances have been rare). Yeah it takes a hitter willing to work the pitcher, but walks arent numerous in elite softball.
Slappers are not likely to get walked intentionally. Gasso shifts her defense (yeah it bites her in the butt sometimes, but she aint going to intentionally walk a slapper.
In a game like what we have coming up, UCLA, Garcia probably wont walk Jaquish intentionally, and so it falls back on the batting average, not the OBP. If the pitcher is not walking anyone, the OBP goes out the window.
I cannot imagine a coach recruiting and coming upon two players... one with a .350 batting average and a .440 OBP, and another with a .425 batting average and a .430 OBP and going with the .350 hitter because the OBP is higher. Nobody does that.
I cannot imagine at a point when a pinch hitter is needed in a clutch situation and a pitcher has only walked one person that they coach would look at two possible hitters, one with a .330 average and a .430 OBP and then look at another with a .410 average and a .425 OBP and go with the .330 hitter. OBP is too walk-dependent, and the chance to walk rests mostly in the hands of the pitcher, not the batter.
OBP cannot be used as a predictor because it is dependent upon the pitcher's performance/choice to walk the batter. The only other factor that comes in is sacrifice flies, and we rarely ever see that happen.
I have read opposing opinions about Batting average vs OBP, but they all make the assumption that the batter will have a chance to watch four balls go by.
Elite pitchers may walk 2 or 3 batters per game. Once they get up to five or six they are pulled.
As for the comment about me lumping in all the slappers together, the reason I put the 60% figure in there is so I would NOT be lumping them all together. I am guessing 60% of slapper hits are INFIELD hits that move the runners one base at a time.
Of course, some runners are too slow to score from second on a hit that goes into the outfield, but generally runners on second do score. I cant cover all the bases writing about this, I shouldnt have to. Everybody knows its given that a slow runner might not be able to score from second base on a hit into the outfield.
Me saying Dawson was a .400 hitter wasnt a slight. 400 is way above average. We only have one .400 hitter on the team right now.
When I said “set the world on fire” I am talking about Mendes (Oklahoma), Lorenz last year (Florida), Garcia this year on the mound, Romero last year, etc. I have always pushed for Nicky to start, at least at DP, and I have always said she has the best swing on the team, hands down. She might end up with a .430 career average and steal 35 bases a year, and she is fast as lightning, but she is not Nicole Mendes, Lorenz, etc. I am hoping next year she starts and I believe she deserves to. I believe she should have gotten much, much more exposure this year, but that's Beth, and Beth knows more than I do about all this.
Good slappers might be a key component, but they are like pawns in a chess game. It's good to have one up front and one in the back, but if you got six slappers starting, you are going to throw the team back to the days when SEC was mostly small-ball and the wide open, swing away teams in the Big 12 and Pac 12 were killing everybody else.
One more thing, the regular slapper is going to get pulled out and a pinch hitter sent in in the event a sacrifice fly, or an outfield hit is needed. Rest assured, too, when the season winds down and the opponents start getting better and better, the defenses are better and if you are going to slap against Oklahoma, Oregon, etc , their first and third baseman will be up there waiting. That's the reason why the swing away teams wins championships, the defenses are rock solid when it comes to the WCWS.
I was going to crack a joke about Barnhill's throws to first base, but I betcha Walton has her throwing overhand all day every day after what happened in the first Bama game.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:44 pm to Lsujacket66
Jaquish and Landry named first-team All-Americans. Walljasper named third-team All-Americans.
https://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=211613113&_ga=2.249218055.1067928500.1496267038-110475558.1487272269
:geauxtigers:
https://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=211613113&_ga=2.249218055.1067928500.1496267038-110475558.1487272269
:geauxtigers:This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:58 pm to SanFranTiger
[/URL][/img]Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:11 pm to SanFranTiger
My opinion, Jaquish and Gregg from Tennessee are the two best players in the country.
Proud of Bailey and Sahvannah.
Allie definitely deserved to be there. What would we do without her?
Proud of Bailey and Sahvannah.
Allie definitely deserved to be there. What would we do without her?
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:33 pm to Bhs83
quote:
their first and third baseman will be up there waiting.
as they should be to defend the drag bunt. The middle infielders also SHOULD be playing up in front of the baseline. If the batter hits a hard line drive through the infield, she’ll be safe anyway.
Whether forward or playing in the base line, a hard hit through a hole will be a base hit regardless. moving forward some will not change this, but it will give you an advantage on one-hoppers and it can help cover the hole by cutting down on the angle. We all know how gard it is throwing them out on one hoppers but this can help. deep in hole and you can forget about it or even straight to the middle infield if playing too deep is a recipe for disaster.
Now they could pound it into dirt and like we have seen so many times it bounces right over infielders heads. That is the chance you take.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:38 pm to Fat Bastard
What you are talking about is something you are going to know more than the rest of us about. Thats what a coach knows. Appreciate your comments. I am left handed, played outfield and pitched, and I dont know infield defensive strategy, but i know you do.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:10 pm to Bhs83
That was a long post, but I enjoy reading. 
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
quote:
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully. I know many elevate OBP above that of Batting Average, but I dont think it should be that way.
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:24 pm to Mulerider
fun debate....
Ok... I will cut it down... us Deaf folks are a little winded when we write.
Of course the more a person is on base the more runs he scores. There's no argument there. The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher, not the hitter, and the predictor must first be the pitcher's desire to walk the batter, or inability to keep from throwing four balls. If that does not happen, the OBP means nothing whatsoever.
We can argue to the cows come home, but let me just ask you this.. …
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Which one do you send out there to pinch hit?
Ok... I will cut it down... us Deaf folks are a little winded when we write.
Of course the more a person is on base the more runs he scores. There's no argument there. The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher, not the hitter, and the predictor must first be the pitcher's desire to walk the batter, or inability to keep from throwing four balls. If that does not happen, the OBP means nothing whatsoever.
We can argue to the cows come home, but let me just ask you this.. …
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Which one do you send out there to pinch hit?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:27 pm to Mulerider
I am so pumped for tomorrow.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:28 pm to Tigerbait357
Lets start predictions for all of day one
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:30 pm to Tigerbait357
Reminder I am gonna be in Nola all day someone will have to take up the slack for me, this will be the last request of me this year. As for tomorrow, Texas A&M, LSU, Oregon, Baylor win tomorrow.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:36 pm to Tigerbait357
Day 1 winners
Florida
LSU
Oregon
Baylor
Florida
LSU
Oregon
Baylor
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:50 pm to Bhs83
quote:
What you are talking about is something you are going to know more than the rest of us about. Thats what a coach knows. Appreciate your comments. I am left handed, played outfield and pitched, and I dont know infield defensive strategy, but i know you do.
yes but you played ball and have knowledge and you were correct on your statement about the infield corners positioning.
outfielders USUALLY(not all the time, depends on coach and scouting of hitters tendencies) shade slappers to the left because many slappers hit to opposite field more often than not. outfielders may play in also like infield. Many slappers hit the ball off their back hip thus why they do not pull as much and tend to go opposite field.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 6:58 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 7:12 pm to Tigerbait357
quote:
I am so pumped for tomorrow.
i am cautiously optimistic. we need to start 2-0. I cannot stress this enough. TAMU needs to beat UF and send them to the loser's bracket from the get go.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 7:44 pm to Fat Bastard
LSU needs to come out and attack offensively. Garcia tends to leave a lot of pitches over the plate, so we need to take advantage of it.
LSU should have a lot of confidence after the last two weekends
LSU should have a lot of confidence after the last two weekends
Posted on 5/31/17 at 8:27 pm to Tigerbait357
if we can start 2-0 i will be on cloud 9....then our chances of making it to the final series is heavily in our favor and.............like i have said before.......if we make it there i like our chances against anybody. Why? because as we all know this team does great in 3 game series in the NCAA tourney especially when down 1-0 and coming back to win 2 straight.
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