re: USC has to be nearly tied with us for 5th. If we beat A&M and they beat ND…

LSU beats A&M and Georgia the Tigers are in the CFP. LSU just needs to finish.

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I agree that if the committee were giving full weight to those games, LSU would lose a resume comparison. The thing is that they would also lose in that comparison to USC and Clemson, which suggests they AREN’T giving full weight to those results.

Michigan has been dominant against very bad competition, but not so much against the better teams they’ve played. They’ve only beaten the 4 major opponents with winning records they have played by a total of 46 points, including two by a TD or less. LSU’s 4 wins over major opponents outside the Top 10 are by 53 points. There’s really not a major difference in dominance there. The question is whether two Top 10 wins for LSU offset the FSU loss. Again, I think current placement suggests that would be the case.

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Clemson and USC are both behind us because they have virtually beaten no one, and at no point have either of them really looked particularly dominant. Make no mistake, however, that if USC beats Notre Dame and Oregon, they are a threat to pass us as a 1 loss team. Clemson just doesn't have much to draw on anywhere.

I already said that Michigan hasn't been as impressive as Ohio State, but at least they HAVE dominated their weaker competition, unlike TCU. And because of the respect that the committee gives to Michigan and OSU, a close game would not be good for LSU, imo. That would serve to validate both teams. I don't see how you are comparing USC and Clemson to OSU and Michigan. As I said, though, I think Michigan is the more likely team to be able to pass between the latter two, for the reasons I've mentioned before.

Remember that we didn't jump a 1 loss (at the time) Oregon after we beat Alabama. It wasn't until they lost the following week that we passed them. And as we know, Oregon lost by eleventy billion points to Georgia. So just because we are ahead of a couple of 1 loss teams now, does not necessarily mean we'd just pass any 1 loss team. The committee was obviously impressed with how Oregon had been playing since their blowout, as they also were with LSU, but the extra loss had LSU behind. And you know they love them some Ohio State as much as they have loved Alabama. Style points matter to the committee, and while we can easily argue we've had the tougher schedule, again, we have 2 losses, and one was a blowout at home.

My entire point is there is a ton of reasonable doubt, contrary to the original poster I replied to who was making it sound like a guarantee that we control our own destiny. I've witnessed the habits of the committee for long enough to know that there is a lot more to consider than a lot of people seem willing to acknowledge.