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re: Updated baseball stats through 9 games
Posted on 3/1/17 at 12:39 pm to lsufball19
Posted on 3/1/17 at 12:39 pm to lsufball19
Whoa ! That is close !
0
Posted on 3/1/17 at 12:56 pm to bbap
quote:
Walker/Gilbert highlighted due to the discussion about Gilbert's future role whether it remains in the pen or perhaps Sunday starter.
Walker or Hess can hold down the job as #3 and #4 for now, they'll be needed in 2018 and no use killing any momentum they're starting to build.
This is my thoughts and my thoughts only but Gilbert needs to stay in that lockdown reliever role. Losing Norman hurts but it can be disguised if Gilbert, Peterson, Bain, and Kiel are able to bring the gaps consistently.
Caleb's been able to give max effort for 1-2 innings at a time, his fastball is up, his slider is biting more, not hitting that fatigue wall he did at times last season. The beauty of this role is ala Louis Coleman '09 where you can bring him in Friday for an inning and then back out Sunday for as long as needed to aid the freshman if they get in a jam.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 12:59 pm to Adam4848
Yeah everything you have said has validity. It's a tough call. Personally i'd like to see him start at least one or two Sundays to see how it goes.
Can't argue that he's able to hit 96 on the gun though due to him knowing he's only in there for 20 or so pitches max.
Can't argue that he's able to hit 96 on the gun though due to him knowing he's only in there for 20 or so pitches max.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 1:10 pm to toosleaux
Deichmann for Heisman...... wait... what?
Posted on 3/1/17 at 1:13 pm to bbap
Our Pythagorean Expectation for win % right now is .910.
We're going 51-5 this year.
We're going 51-5 this year.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 1:16 pm to Brageous
quote:
Paps hitting just under .400 has been a pleasant surprise. Going to strictly righty continuing to help.
If he Ty Rosses, we're in for a big season.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 1:56 pm to therick711
I've finished logging the leverage index numbers for the games so far this year.
If you are unfamiliar with the concept here is a short explanation from Baseball Reference:
Essentially, the higher the number, the more pivotal the situation, and 1=Average.
Here are the average beginning leverage index (based on the situation when they enter the game) for each reliever:
Strall 2.00
Newman 1.66
Reynolds 1.30
Peterson 1.20
Gilbert 1.17
Hess 0.70
Kiel 0.70
Norman 0.57
Reese 0.40
Bush 0.35
Bain 0.30
Beck 0.30
Strall has the highest leverage entry average. But the highest single instance so far is from Newman's appearance last night.
Also, in a much simpler statistic, LSU relievers have inherited 18 runners over the course of the season and allowed only 5 to score, stranding 72% of them.
If you are unfamiliar with the concept here is a short explanation from Baseball Reference:
quote:
Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).
The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.
Essentially, the higher the number, the more pivotal the situation, and 1=Average.
Here are the average beginning leverage index (based on the situation when they enter the game) for each reliever:
Strall 2.00
Newman 1.66
Reynolds 1.30
Peterson 1.20
Gilbert 1.17
Hess 0.70
Kiel 0.70
Norman 0.57
Reese 0.40
Bush 0.35
Bain 0.30
Beck 0.30
Strall has the highest leverage entry average. But the highest single instance so far is from Newman's appearance last night.
Also, in a much simpler statistic, LSU relievers have inherited 18 runners over the course of the season and allowed only 5 to score, stranding 72% of them.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:00 pm to ProjectP2294
Strall's leverage index should be .1. No idea why you would ever throw him outside of a blowout.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:04 pm to Adam4848
quote:"for now" is the important point here. The topic is who would be next up if they don't. Has to be Gilbert.
Walker or Hess can hold down the job as #3 and #4 for now, they'll be needed in 2018 and no use killing any momentum they're starting to build.
quote:And I'll say this. If Norman was still around, I'd be okay with trying him as a starter again and letting Gilbert be that 8th inning guy. But without him and if we lose Walker or Hess to injury/performance, Gilbert is the next one up.
Gilbert needs to stay in that lockdown reliever role. Losing Norman hurts but it can be disguised if Gilbert, Peterson, Bain, and Kiel are able to bring the gaps consistently.
quote:Been a popular comparison for him. High standards. Not sure we are there yet.
The beauty of this role is ala Louis Coleman '09 where you can bring him in Friday for an inning and then back out Sunday for as long as needed to aid the freshman if they get in a jam.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:08 pm to bbap
quote:
Strall's leverage index should be .1. No idea why you would ever throw him outside of a blowout.
Strall's value is maxed out in the role he was used on Sunday. Get ready quick and give time for someone else to warm up more naturally.
It sounds mean when I say this (though I don't mean it to be), but you need at least one guy with no real baseball future in your bullpen to occupy that role. It's not easy on the arm over the long term.
ETA: Devall occupied that role for us last year.
This post was edited on 3/1/17 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:09 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Strall 2.00
Man, I hope this goes down a lot over the course of the season. Did not fare well against Maryland or especially UNO. Wasn't his out against Maryland a baserunning error on a hit?
Edit - or maybe not a baserunning error so much as Deichmann saving his arse with an awesome assist to home plate
This post was edited on 3/1/17 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:19 pm to ell_13
quote:
And I'll say this. If Norman was still around, I'd be okay with trying him as a starter again and letting Gilbert be that 8th inning guy. But without him and if we lose Walker or Hess to injury/performance, Gilbert is the next one up.
He'll be that 4th or 5th guy in tournament play there's no doubt.
I'm heavily favoring the importance of keeping him as a reliever because he always "can" slide into that Sunday start or come in the 3rd or 4th inning if one of Hess/Walker struggle. If there's a chance he can help the Tigers win two games a weekend there's little reason in banking on Caleb getting a quality start each Sunday and then trying to piece together the rest of the bullpen behind him once he runs into trouble.
The beauty of it is there is no right or wrong, Dunn has options.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:20 pm to thunderbird1100
Strall's ERA would still be infiniti if not for deichmann. He sure as shite hasnt gotten anyone out on his own yet.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:26 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Strall's value is maxed out in the role he was used on Sunday. Get ready quick and give time for someone else to warm up more naturally.
It sounds mean when I say this (though I don't mean it to be), but you need at least one guy with no real baseball future in your bullpen to occupy that role. It's not easy on the arm over the long term.
ETA: Devall occupied that role for us last year.
Well said. There is absolutely no reason for Strall to see the mound unless we're either winning by 15 or it's a very special situation. Our other bullpen arms are just too good and he's a major risk every time he throws a pitch.
This post was edited on 3/1/17 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 3/1/17 at 2:37 pm to Adam4848
quote:It's a little bit of a catch 22. With Norman gone, every reliever is much more important, Gilbert included. But it also means that if Walker or Hess start to fall apart, you lose a reliever somewhere somehow while hoping that Walker or Hess perform better there (if it's not injury related).
I'm heavily favoring the importance of keeping him as a reliever
My worry is that game 3 starter either in the super or CWS where we may already be 1-1. Do you go with Walker and Hess if one has been serviceable? Or go with Gilbert who's been lights out all year, maybe got a start or 3 to show you he's completely capable?
This is all hypothetical, of course, so could be completely pointless. But it's based off of the preseason questions we've all had and until we really know what we have in Walker/Hess, there's still going to be those questions. Which won't happen until about May.
Posted on 3/1/17 at 4:04 pm to ell_13
quote:
My worry is that game 3 starter either in the super or CWS where we may already be 1-1. Do you go with Walker and Hess if one has been serviceable? Or go with Gilbert who's been lights out all year, maybe got a start or 3 to show you he's completely capable?
Go with Gilbert, he's capable. That's a ways away though, let Walker and Hess put in some work.
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