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Started By
Message
re: The ONLY ways LSU plays in the National Championship (Long)
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:44 pm to JPLSU1981
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:44 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Saved, just in case.
Somewhere I still have the post saved where I was told that I can someone's sister if we actually played for the NC in 2007. Still waiting to cash that in.
Good work Slackster. I will probably link this in Sunday's BCS thread after we beat Bama.
0
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:46 pm to slackster
But for the record, if LSU doesn't play in the SECCG my bet is against them passing up Boise (even if TCU loses and doesn't wedge us). The computers would be close I think and the at least 3/4 of the voters would prefer 13-0 Boise over non-SEC champ LSU.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:53 pm to lsumatt
I agree that Boise is a thorn in the side of LSU. I think there is a chance without Boise losing, but it requires their opponents tanking. A Boise loss is ideal, however.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 3:00 pm to slackster
quote:
but it requires their opponents tanking
Perhaps. Boise is surprisingly okay in the computers. A couple more losses by Va Tech and OSU would change that. If LSU managed a 2 spot lead in the computers it would help. A 2 loss Big 12 champ might wedge their way in there.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 3:04 pm to slackster
If we don't win the SEC, the voters will not put us in. And it was the voters who put Florida in the NC game, not the computers. They were a virtual draw with the computers. Both the AP and the Coaches polls had Florida at #2. I don't think the voters will ever allow another non-conference champ into the big game. Hell, Virginia Tech was #1 in the computer average in 2007. The voters didn't want a repeat of 2000 when FSU got in unjustifiably over Miami, even though both were one-loss teams and Miami won the head-to-head game.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 3:27 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
the voters who put Florida in the NC game, not the computers. They were a virtual draw with the computers.
Right. But if Michigan had a huge lead in the computers, the voters would not have kept them out.
Despite people's belief, the voters don't unethically vote people out. They will move them around if it makes sense (LSU over Va Tech and UGA 2007), but they aren't gonna vote LSU #10 or something to force them out. If LSU had a huge lead over Boise in the computers (and I don't think they will), the voters might not be able to really squeeze LSU out even if they wanted to.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 3:47 pm to lsumatt
The computers only account for 1/3 of the BCS formula, with human voters comprising the other 2/3. Considering every team's highest and lowest rankings are dropped, there would have to be a MAJOR disparity between second place and third place. The voters can override the computers pretty easily.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 3:53 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
there would have to be a MAJOR disparity between second place and third place.
That isn't hard to do in the computers with non-BCS schools. Boise looks okay right now (b/c Va Tech and OSU are doing well), but it is common for undefeated mid-majors to be behind several 1-loss teams and even 2-loss teams.
Voters on the other hand might penalize LSU, but what they WON'T do (at least based on history) is put them behind 2-loss teams. So if LSU was one spot behind in the human polls (because there aren't viable options above them) and 2 spots above in the computers, it is a draw. If LSU gets a bigger boost in the computers, they would be in.
Now I have said it before, I think Boise is fine unless Va Tech and OSU tank.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 4:53 pm to lsumatt
Nice analysis.
For those who were trying to figure out the odds of LSU winning out (even though the whole thing was under that assumption and is completely irrelevant to this thread). Just come up with hypothetical lines for each LSU game going forward and put them in a parlay and find out the payout, convert it to odds and you will get a closer estimate of what those odds could be.
For those who were trying to figure out the odds of LSU winning out (even though the whole thing was under that assumption and is completely irrelevant to this thread). Just come up with hypothetical lines for each LSU game going forward and put them in a parlay and find out the payout, convert it to odds and you will get a closer estimate of what those odds could be.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 5:24 pm to slackster
Before spending all that time on your post I would have at least waited 2 days. Unless you're just trying to build your e-cred or something.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 5:51 pm to OFWHAP
I know the voters were ultimately responsible, but if just 19 of 113 voters change their ballots in the Harris and 13 of 62 in the Coaches' poll, UF does not get in the NC. It is not like EVERY voter had Michigan 3rd. That was just where they ended up.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 5:55 pm to LSUzealot
Lol at e-cred. Nah I was just trying to help out the guys who start threads full of misinformation.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 5:57 pm to slackster
How does the picture change if the NCAA forces Auburn to vacate their wins this season? (Assuming it happens before the regular season ends.)
Posted on 11/4/10 at 5:58 pm to slackster
The one scenario you missed---
Cam Newton accepts $$ to go to Auburn, AU gets their wins vacated, and the #2 team from the West goes to Atlanta.
Cam Newton accepts $$ to go to Auburn, AU gets their wins vacated, and the #2 team from the West goes to Atlanta.
This post was edited on 11/4/10 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 11/4/10 at 6:46 pm to xXLSUXx
quote:
The one scenario you missed---
Cam Newton accepts $$ to go to Auburn, AU gets their wins vacated, and the #2 team from the West goes to Atlanta.
I should have thought of that!Posted on 11/4/10 at 6:48 pm to slackster
Dude u just wasted an hour of your Life!!
Not happen !!!!
Not happen !!!!
Posted on 11/4/10 at 6:56 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
You're wrong...If we lose - somebody cheated 
Posted on 11/4/10 at 7:08 pm to TigerDean
quote:
Dude u just wasted an hour of your Life!!
Not happen !!!!
Whether LSU goes to the National Championship or not has no bearing on the point of my post. If you read it, you would understand. Obviously you did not.
Posted on 11/4/10 at 8:28 pm to stapuffmarshy
This post was edited on 11/4/10 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 11/4/10 at 8:39 pm to Spirit of Dunson
quote:
I'm not saying that matt can bend space and time, but... have you ever seen him and jesus together at the same time? I haven't.
"all possibilities arise simultaneously, in space-time"
Adi Da
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