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re: Sporting News: Edward Jim Orgeron Jr. is the 15th best coach in America

Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:54 am to
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:54 am to
quote:

You mean the sort of stats that predicted Hillary winning the 2016 election in a walk? Yeah. NOT impressed.


no, he literally doesn't.

there is no poll out there that is adjusted for strength of opponent you nimrod.


I don't even know why I am entertaining this as a legitimate response.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:54 am to
quote:

FYI...the most simplistic stats and thinking


Which defensive stats go into the SoS in an offensive ranking

It should be easy to answer for someone who claims to be so intelligent.

In the 2015 LSU offensive SoS ranking, how was that derived?
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:54 am to
quote:

This makes no sense


thats your wheelhouse. posting literal nonsense.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:56 am to

quote:

there is no poll out there that is adjusted for strength of opponent you nimrod.


In LSU's offensive SoS rating, what defensive stats are figured into the SoS

It should be easy for someone who claims to know more than myself.
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:57 am to
quote:

FYI...the most simplistic stats and thinking mentioned in this particular exchange have been from you and Roger.



they are using "total yards" and "final AP poll". They aren't the flat earthers of LSU fans. These are the sabermetric gurus!
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 9:58 am to
quote:

they are using "total yards"


Why would total yards of an opponent be important in determining the strength of opposing teams?

What a weird metric eh?
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:00 am to
quote:

what defensive stats are figured into the SoS


why are you asking me??

Do you not want to just take their word for it? It's right their at the top of their page.

LINK

quote:

S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.


pretty ironic that O-tards would be trying to rail against the website that deemed LSU played the toughest schedule in all of FBS in 2018.

That's O fans for ya.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:01 am to
quote:

pretty ironic that O-tards would be trying to rail against the website


Wrong

I'm railing against your illiteracy in using the information.

Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31030 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:03 am to
You can simply finish reading the article you parsed out the Vegas quote from if you truly want to attempt to understand his methodology.

Or do you want me to provide the link and actually show everyone the in depth explanation you are completely disregarding?
This post was edited on 6/21/19 at 10:04 am
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:05 am to
quote:

Or do you want me to provide the link and actually show everyone the in depth explanation you are completely disregarding?


Roger is not the dumbest poster on this website. Far from it. But he is without a doubt the most disingenuous. The lengths he will go to fail to concede are astonishing.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:05 am to
quote:

You can simply finish reading the article you parsed out the Vegas quote from if you truly want to attempt to understand his methodology.


I absolutely do.

But you claim to possess superior knowledge.

Are you claiming opponents individual defensive stats are factored into this type of analytic? Which would include their Sos, and their opponents offensive data?

Since you claim to be so knowledgeable here.

Or do you not know and are just flinging shite hoping it sticks?

How did LSU's offensive SoS ranking get determined?
Posted by tandrews37
Member since Jun 2019
721 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:10 am to
quote:

Why would total yards of an opponent be important in determining the strength of opposing teams?

What a weird metric eh?


thats the metric Buckeye Jeaux is relying upon.

remember when you were talking about reading comprehension the other day? pot, meet kettle.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:14 am to

quote:

thats the metric Buckeye Jeaux is relying upon.


Unfortunately you can't understand when I'm poking fun of you.

Opponents defensive rankings are absolutely important in determining how good your offense may really be. To an extent

But you appear to dislike objective data.
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Why would total yards of an opponent be important in determining the strength of opposing teams?


quote:

thats the metric Buckeye Jeaux is relying upon.
Got a link to that?
This post was edited on 6/21/19 at 10:23 am
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31030 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:23 am to
quote:

I absolutely do.

Great. Did you read it?
quote:

But you claim to possess superior knowledge.

Link?
quote:

Are you claiming opponents individual defensive stats are factored into this type of analytic? Which would include their Sos, and their opponents offensive data?

Yes. And in case you aren’t aware, the methodology you came up with in this exchange does not.
quote:


Since you claim to be so knowledgeable here.

I haven’t claimed to be knowledgeable. I’ve pointed out that comparing season total yards of two teams who didn’t play the same number of games is ignorant, any rational/objective person would do the same. I also pointed out that if you want to go down the opponent strength rabbit hole there are much more in depth measurements than your “average defensive ranking” metric.
quote:


Or do you not know and are just flinging shite hoping it sticks?

The only people flinging anything here are those who are refusing to acknowledge a glaring error in their statistical comparison and those who think they performed some sort of deep dive on relative strength and performance while simultaneously disregarding a methodology that goes about 100 steps beyond their surface level measurement.
quote:


How did LSU's offensive SoS ranking get determined?

No one has mentioned an “offensive SoS ranking”. If you’re referring to S&P then simply refer back to the first answer.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:31 am to
quote:

No one has mentioned an “offensive SoS ranking”.


They absolutely have.

Have you not read this thread?



Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:34 am to
quote:

The only people flinging anything here are those who are refusing to acknowledge a glaring error in their statistical comparison


This is correct. You fail to acknowledge the weakness of LSU's defensive opponents in game in which we won.

Overall defensive squads were terrible.

Looking at the adjusted S&P+ ranking for LSU, particularly for passing, are you under the impression that this was encompassing?
quote:


Overall offensive and defensive S&P+ ratings are communicated as adjusted scoring averages (points per game). Situational 'plus' ratings -- Rushing S&P+, Success Rate+, FP+, etc. -- are still delivered on a scale in which 100.0 is the national average, above 100 is good (offense or defense) and below 100 is bad.

Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

The first table below offers situational stats -- rushing, passing, standard downs (SD), and passing downs (PD) -- and a team's opponent-adjusted Success Rate and IsoPPP measures. The second table offers unadjusted Success Rate and IsoPPP measures, plus two personality stats: Adjusted Run Pct. and Adjusted Pace. Adj. Run Pct. is an attempt to measure the intent of play-calling by looking at standard downs and passing downs run rates and calibrating so that every team has the same amount of each type of down. Meanwhile, learn more about Adj. Pace here. It compares a team's plays per game to its expected plays per game (based on run-pass rates) and is presented in terms of how many greater or fewer plays a team runs compared to expectation.



This post was edited on 6/21/19 at 10:38 am
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:35 am to
I doubt there is anyone on this board who cannot predict the top 25 teams for 2019 with some reasonable degree of accuracy. Further, most could reasonably judge the teams to be in the top 10 and the ones in the bottom 15.

S+P had Ohio State at #1 preseason. But did they factor in that Haskins and Day would go full-retard and blow their playoff slot by desperately seeking Heisman stats in the Purdue game?

So many imponderables in a football season - drugs, alcohol, injuries, arrests, team strife, etc. and etc.

At this point the eyeball test looks as good or better than any computer method.

This post was edited on 6/21/19 at 10:38 am
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216476 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:41 am to
Are you saying we should fire O right now??????? It sounds like that would make you happy.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 6/21/19 at 10:41 am to
quote:

S+P had Ohio State at #1 preseason


The OSU defense was horrible last year too.
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