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re: So You Don't Know Why Miles Might Want to Start Jefferson?

Posted on 11/17/11 at 1:51 pm to
Posted by Commando
Never Never Land
Member since Jan 2009
2814 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 1:51 pm to
So you really think we win the UF and UTe games without JL last year? It's not his fault that Les left JJ in all those game between the UNC game where he played decent and the Alabama game where he played decent. He played like crap in all the ones between those two.
Posted by USMCTiger03
Member since Sep 2007
71176 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

I love the way the stats complied earlier on JJ left out all the games last year where he was absolutely terrible. You cannot cherry pick only the games where your guy played well and discount the ones where he played poorly. In 2010 JJ was a way below average SEC QB. That is a fact.
To be fair, I dicked around with JJ's 2010 stats a little bit, and does appear that his latter-season stats are much better than early-season stats. Also to be objective, JJ had some early to mid season games last season that were just awful.

I wouldn't necessarily call JustMe's stats cherrypicked. However, the scope or ranges given are obviously deliberately chosen for a purpose.

I'm inclined toward Lee as the starter and JJ as a contributor, but I'm open minded to either one getting in there and just kicking that arse and making it a contest.

Who knows, maybe next week, or the week after, or after that, we'll be arguing over who should start by comparing some fresh kick-arse stats by both.
Posted by just me
Front of the Class: Schooling You
Member since Mar 2006
34489 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

I love the way the stats complied earlier on JJ left out all the games last year where he was absolutely terrible. You cannot cherry pick only the games where your guy played well and discount the ones where he played poorly.
Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias.

An example of cherry picking would be selecting the stats from the first two games games in October, while ignoring the stats from the last five games of the year.

The stats I presented are not cherry picked. To the contrary, the stats depict a turning point beginning with the Bama game. I have provided stats from that turning point forward without excluding any data that may contradict that position.

Face it, Jefferson got MUCH better starting with the Bama game in 2010.

quote:

In 2010 JJ was a way below average SEC QB. That is a fact.
In 2008, Lee was a turnover machine. That is a fact.

In 2009, Lee completed 40% of his passes and had a QB rating in double digits. That is a fact.

In 2010, Lee was a way below average SEC QB. That is a fact.

In 2011, Lee got MUCH better. Lee is now a damn good QB.

Jefferson also got better. He got better starting with the Bama game in 2010. Jefferson is now a damn good QB.


This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 2:25 pm
Posted by RANDY44
Member since Aug 2005
9572 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Gore has 8 carries? Where have I been?

All against NWS and WKU. Put the ball on the turf a couple of times against NWS which put him into the proverbial doghouse.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:40 pm to
^^^^^^
neither QBs are "damn good" IMO. much better, yes. damn good, no. jury still is out for me on JJ. far too little to go by. hard to have an accurate view after 30 some odd passes, half of them coming in a game against a terrible team
Posted by USMCTiger03
Member since Sep 2007
71176 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

In 2008, Lee was a turnover machine. That is a fact.

In 2010, JJ was a turnover machine with 10 INTs.
quote:

In 2009, Lee completed 40% of his passes and had a QB rating in double digits. That is a fact.
As a matter of fact, in 2009, JJ rushed 112 times, gained 415 yds, but lost 244 yds for a net rushing yardage of 171 or 1.5 yards per carry. Not too great for a run-threat QB.
quote:

In 2010, Lee was a way below average SEC QB. That is a fact.
Still better pass/eff in 2010 than JJ.

Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
69416 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:46 pm to
I think every stat under crowton should be thrown out the window. Both QB's look like they have improved this year and I don't think it is because they are seniors.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

I think every stat under crowton should be thrown out the window. Both QB's look like they have improved this year and I don't think it is because they are seniors.

not disagreeing but it does happen. see Jason Campbell
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85402 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:51 pm to
no, but to be honest we dont win without JJ. Again in those games lee acounted for 14 points, Total. So to sit here and tell me lee bailed JJ out several times is ludicrous. Anyone who says that didnt watch the games closely.


Now without a doubt we would not beat bama without JJ, considering he has gotten the majority of snaps in the games in question, and led lsu to more points than lee in those ganes in question.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 2:54 pm
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
69416 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

not disagreeing but it does happen. see Jason Campbell


True but I believe other factors have contributed more towards their improved numbers.

1. Dominant running game
2. New OC and an actual QB coach
3. Simplified offense
4. Improved O-line
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

Again in those games lee acounted for 14 points

there have been plenty of times where JL led the team down the field and then was replaced by JJ by the goal line. You have to attribute both players for earning points on those drives, not just who ran for/threw a TD.
Posted by Wideman
Arlington, Virginia
Member since Jul 2005
11721 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:53 pm to
quote:


not disagreeing but it does happen. see Jason Campbell
Jason Campbell is a good example. But I don't think we can discount how much Kragthorpe has benefited both QBs. Have you seen what happened to the 2010 ACC Freshman of the Year? He was lights out behind center for Maryland last year, poised to have another great season.

He has 7 TDs and 10 INTs this year. Does that look familiar? Go check out JJ's stat line from last year. It's the exact same... you know what else is the exact same? the offensive coordinator.

This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 2:55 pm
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85402 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:56 pm to
My point being we dont know how those games would have turned out with lee getting majority of snaps, just like we dont know what the outcome of 1st 8 games would be if jj had majority of snaps.

And you cant take away from either qb in those situations like so many try to.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

True but I believe other factors have contributed more towards their improved numbers.

1. Dominant running game
2. New OC and an actual QB coach
3. Simplified offense
4. Improved O-line

our running game is essentially the same. averaged 185 ypg last year and are averaging 195 this year. The biggest difference b/t this year and last year is TURNOVERS. We have 6 all year this year and had 24 last year. We gave up 24 sacks last year and just 10 this year (6 by JJ). I think our punting game has also been a big reason for our success. A new OC has certainly helped, but I think it goes a lot deeper than that. We've dominated field position and taken care of the ball.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 3:00 pm
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
69416 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

The biggest difference b/t this year and last year is TURNOVERS.


Good point.

Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

He has 7 TDs and 10 INTs this year. Does that look familiar? Go check out JJ's stat line from last year. It's the exact same... you know what else is the exact same? the offensive coordinator.

Oh I know. I think keeping Crowton around for 2010 was one of the bigger mistakes Miles has made during his tenure. Feel like he thought Crowton could get the job done with another year and cut him some slack after RP screwed the team over.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85402 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

He played like crap in all the ones between those two.


To be fair lee only played well in the UF game, He played like shite against mcneese and actually had more pass attempts than JJ.

They BOTH have played below average their entire careers.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85402 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:06 pm to
quote:

there have been plenty of times where JL led the team down the field and then was replaced by JJ by the goal line. You have to attribute both players for earning points on those drives, not just who ran for/threw a TD.


Please list them for me. I have 1 on the top of my head, Tenn game.

We didnt score against bama, and that play was more on Randle than lee, Randle caught the ball and didnt go down rt away burning time off the clock.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 3:08 pm
Posted by Run DMC
somewhere in Louisiana it's tricky
Member since Jan 2007
6191 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

just me


You can't throw stats out like this if you are not going to put all the stats in there. It is a bias to only state Jefferson's stats after the BAMA game in 2010 and is not an accurate measure of true numbers. Why not put all of 2010 in this for arguments sake. We all know his numbers were shite for the first 8 games last season.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
71023 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

Please list them for me. I have 1 on the top of my head, Tenn game.

off the top of my head

last year:
- 1st TD scoring drive against Florida. JL was the QB until we got inside the 10. JJ rushing TD
- 3rd TD drive against Florida. Same deal. ANother JJ rushing TD
- Other two TD drives that game were both JL TD passes

then this year:
-Knetucky JJ QB sneak
- Florida when JJ had the jump pass
- Tenn w/ the JJ run
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 3:13 pm
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