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re: So You Don't Know Why Miles Might Want to Start Jefferson?

Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:52 am to
Posted by justustm2
Member since Sep 2005
4158 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Where the frick were you in 2008?


Not booing JL.
Posted by JWill409
Beaumont, TX
Member since Sep 2010
1423 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Da frick?
In the 'bama game, if the pass to Shepard is on the money, it's a touchdown.

In the WKU game, on one drive,
if the pass is accurate to Clement, it's a touchdown,
if the pass is accurate to Beckham, it's a touchdown,
finally, he throws an accurate two-yard pass for the score.

Maybe he was just trying to give the defense a rest.


I find this funny..for one the pass to Shepard was on the money for the most part...he wouldn't have caught it anyways...thats no offense to Shep but I'm not sold on his hands still..secondly the pass to Clement was drawn up as a touch pass you could tell that by the snap there's really no telling who's to blame for anything on that pass but the fact of the matter is the play went for 24 yards I believe..everyone's seen the numbers..but everyone also felt like they had to pick a side at the beginning of last year so it's really hard to convince some people..Personally, I think Jefferson is the better QB, and the numbers obviously show it. It's sad that I'm in the minority but who cares as long as were winning i dont care who is in.
Posted by LSUzealot
Napoleon and Magazine
Member since Sep 2003
57656 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:53 am to
I think we can all agree we would have ran up the middle 3 times with Jarrett Lee in overtime, amirite? Alleman still could have won the game for us, but a chip shot is much easier than a 40 yarder. Also, in our only long drive of the night, it was mostly runs. Again, Bama's defense is on a different level. I hate to say it, but probably even better than ours. Field position was huge and with Lee we lost it TWICE and scored zero points. With JJ, we weren't good either, but he did just enough to win it. Defense won that game.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 10:54 am
Posted by JWill409
Beaumont, TX
Member since Sep 2010
1423 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Not booing JL.


So why do y'all boo Jefferson? How ignorant is that?
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42142 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:54 am to
quote:

So why do y'all boo Jefferson? How ignorant is that?



This
Posted by ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
12280 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:54 am to
quote:

6 points is what LSU scored in the game. It's all anyone, including yourself...has to go on.

I bet you're thankful Ford stepped out of bounds.
Posted by ashy larry
Marcy Projects
Member since Mar 2010
5577 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:55 am to
quote:

This is what the JJ haters don't understand. When Lee was starting, there was no anger or clamor for JJ to start. There was no booing of JL.

The anger is exhibited over JJ starting and sometimes even playing. That brings about the sh@#$ing on JJ to justify the argument that JL should start. Then the JJ supporters or just fair play people feel obligated to support the notion that starting JJ is not the worst thing in the world, as some would argue. They bring out his positive qualities to justify why Miles might have chosen to start him over JL.


I agree with a lot of what you said except you make it sound like the Lee fans are shitting on JJ while the JJ fans don't do the same thing Lee. not to mention that the reason there was no anger or outrage in support of JJ is b/c he was suspended and we moved up to #1 in the country with Lee at the helm. Different scenarios.
Posted by deSandman
Member since Mar 2007
969 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:57 am to
quote:

What game has a better comparative ratio of both starters going against the first team defense? It's our best example of both QB's running the same offense against the same defense. Sure, it's not 50-50, but throw out the 5 OT plays to only compare regulation and we've got 11 snaps to 44. Uneven, but still each QB had at least 20% of the regulation snaps -- it's enough to make a comparison, particularly compared to the rest of the schedule.


Instead of snaps you should be looking at possessions. Lee's possessions had fewer snaps because he made them that way.

DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 8 plays 31 yards, 03:52 LSU PUNT
DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 3 plays 2 yards, 01:39 LSU INT
DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 1 play 0 yards, 00:13 LSU INT

Lee's last 5 passes in the Bama game:

1st and 10 at ALA 44 Jarrett Lee pass incomplete.
3rd and 8 at ALA 42 Jarrett Lee pass incomplete
2nd and 13 at LSU 30 Jarrett Lee pass complete to Russell Shepard for 5 yards to the LSU 35.
3rd and 8 at LSU 35 Jarrett Lee pass intercepted by Robert Lester at the Alab 47, returned for no gain to the Alab 47.
1st and 10 at LSU 17 Jarrett Lee pass intercepted by Mark Barron at the LSU 39, returned for 14 yards to the LSU 35, ALABAMA penalty 10 yard Illegal Block accepted.

5 snaps, one completion for five yards, three drives ended (out of 10 for the game, so essentially one-third of our chances to score), 2 turnovers near or inside the 50.

I don't want to come off as bashing a player, but I just haven't seen anything out of Lee that makes me think he can do well against a top-level defense. The guy has been at LSU for 4 years now...what's his best drive against a legit top tier team at a meaningful point in the game?
I'm not talking about a fringe top-25 team, or teams like UF and Tenn last year that we let hang around for too long, I mean a legit title contender.

He was 10-22 for 98 yards with a TD and a fumble against Oregon.
He was 3-7 for 24 yards and 2 INTS against Bama.
He had the ball down 7 against Auburn 2010 and went 4 and out.
He had the ball for all 3 4th quarter drives at Alabama 2009, with a lead, and went 3 and out, 3 and out, and 4 and INT.
And even though 2008 is ancient history and there's no point in rehashing it, let's just say he didn't get it done against the contenders that year either...

There's one nice third down conversion against Bama in 2010 that didn't lead to points but was definitely important, and thats about it.

There's no doubt we certainly needed him on a couple of drives last year - Jefferson was straight up garbage for a sizable stretch - and those sideline throws this season against the also-rans who can't cover Randle or get a pass rusher near the QB have been something to see...but its pretty clear that Miles thinks that he needs Jefferson to beat the big boys. I don't see any evidence that he's incorrect.

Both of our quarterbacks have obvious weaknesses, and I think good playcalling can cover Lee's flaws better against lower quality teams but against top tier theres nowhere to hide.
With Jefferson, the caliber of the opponent doesn't matter as much, he's just "ok" against bad teams but he's also "ok" against good teams.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 11:06 am
Posted by justustm2
Member since Sep 2005
4158 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 10:58 am to
quote:

So why do y'all boo Jefferson? How ignorant is that?


You can't be referring to me, are you? If so, you better reread what I have posted on the subject. Ignorant????
Posted by Catman88
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
49125 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:00 am to
The love fest of Just Me and Jefferson continues...

Posted by LSUzealot
Napoleon and Magazine
Member since Sep 2003
57656 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:00 am to
quote:

deSandman


great post
Posted by ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
12280 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:00 am to
quote:

He was 10-22 for 98 yards with a TD and a fumble against Oregon.
He was 3-7 for 24 yards and 2 INTS against Bama.
He had the ball down 7 against Auburn 2010 and went 4 and out.
He had the ball for all 3 4th quarter drives at Alabama 2009, with a lead, and went 3 and out, 3 and out, and 4 and INT.
And even though 2008 is ancient history and there's no point in rehashing it, let's just say he didn't get it done against the contenders that year either...

There's one nice third down conversion against Bama in 2010 that didn't lead to points but was definitely important, and thats about it.

These are the stats that back up what my eyes have been telling me. Thanks for this.
This post was edited on 11/17/11 at 11:01 am
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42142 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Instead of snaps you should be looking at possessions. Lee's possessions had fewer snaps because he made them that way.

DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 8 plays 31 yards, 03:52 LSU PUNT
DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 3 plays 2 yards, 01:39 LSU INT
DRIVE TOTALS: LSU drive: 1 play 0 yards, 00:13 LSU INT

Lee's last 5 passes in the Bama game:

1st and 10 at ALA 44 Jarrett Lee pass incomplete.
3rd and 8 at ALA 42 Jarrett Lee pass incomplete
2nd and 13 at LSU 30 Jarrett Lee pass complete to Russell Shepard for 5 yards to the LSU 35.
3rd and 8 at LSU 35 Jarrett Lee pass intercepted by Robert Lester at the Alab 47, returned for no gain to the Alab 47.
1st and 10 at LSU 17 Jarrett Lee pass intercepted by Mark Barron at the LSU 39, returned for 14 yards to the LSU 35, ALABAMA penalty 10 yard Illegal Block accepted.

5 snaps, one completion for five yards, three drives ended (out of 10 for the game, so essentially one-third of our chances to score), 2 turnovers near or inside the 50.

I don't want to come off as bashing a player, but I just haven't seen anything out of Lee that makes me think he can do well against a top-level defense. The guy has been at LSU for 4 years now...what's his best drive against a legit top tier team at a meaningful point in the game?
I'm not talking about a fringe top-25 team, or teams like UF and Tenn last year that we let hang around for too long, I mean a legit title contenders.

He was 10-22 for 98 yards with a TD and a fumble against Oregon.
He was 3-7 for 24 yards and 2 INTS against Bama.
He had the ball down 7 against Auburn 2010 and went 4 and out.
He had the ball for all 3 4th quarter drives at Alabama 2009, with a lead, and went 3 and out, 3 and out, and 4 and INT.
And even though 2008 is ancient history and there's no point in rehashing it, let's just say he didn't get it done against the contenders that year either...

There's one nice third down conversion against Bama in 2010 that didn't lead to points but was definitely important, and thats about it.

There's no doubt we certainly needed him on a couple of drives last year - Jefferson was straight up garbage for a sizable stretch - and those sideline throws this season against the also-rans who can't cover Randle or get a pass rusher near the QB have been something to see...but its pretty clear that Miles thinks that he needs Jefferson to beat the big boys. I don't see any evidence that he's incorrect.

Both of our quarterbacks have obvious weaknesses, and I think good playcalling can cover Lee's flaws better against lower quality teams but against top tier theres nowhere to hide.
With Jefferson, the caliber of the opponent doesn't matter as much, he's just "ok" against bad teams but he's also "ok" against good teams.



Solid Post
Posted by DBG
vermont
Member since May 2004
78013 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:03 am to
start lee
Posted by tigerprl
DFW
Member since Dec 2010
1278 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:03 am to
I believe CLM sate that he didn't give a blank who the fans thought about who should be the starting or for that matter playing QB. CLM said he would choose the QB he thought gave the team the best opportunity to win. I got my opinion on who should start and my opinion is like arse holes everybody got one and they all stink. I seriously doubt that the fan base has a better grasp of who the best QB to play in each situation than the coaching staff. I for one trust Miles to do what is best for the team, he got much more riding on our winning than i do.
Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:04 am to
You have spent an absurd amount of time defending Jefferson here.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
293467 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:05 am to
quote:


there are fans in the stands who still do. There were a couple of threads on here during and after the game about select people not just booing but using racial slurs.


There are "select people" who will do anything. I don't see a trend.
Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Look at Danny O'Brien too. Where are all of the posters who predicted that the Terps would take off with Crowton? Where are the posters who said that Jefferson and Lee were holding Crowton back?


I think you made this up also. I don't remember anyone making those statements
Posted by Wideman
Arlington, Virginia
Member since Jul 2005
11721 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:07 am to
quote:

I think you made this up also. I don't remember anyone making those statements
then you weren't paying attention to those threads... they were prevelant.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/17/11 at 11:08 am to
quote:

0, but throw out the 5 OT plays to only compare regulation and we've got 11 snaps to 44.


absurd comparison.

quote:

- it's enough to make a comparison, particularly compared to the rest of the schedule.


really, wanna talk about the snap distribution in say Auburn, UT or WKU?

quote:

Alabama is the best defense we will play, but that doesn't make Lee's stats an automatic outlier.


What I said was Alabamas defensive stats are an outlier compared to the rest of the data set...please keep up.

quote:

You're misusing the concept of an outlier


Is Alabama's defensive ranking a leverage point on the defensive rankings we have faced this year?

yes or no.

If the answer is yes than it is not from a similar distribution as the rest of the data set and will skew results of the analysis.

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