re: PREVIEW: LSU vs Michigan State March 29th 6:09pm CBS

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He just needs to play defense on the worst offensive player for LSU so that he doesn't have to exert as much energy or get fouls on defense.

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That would be Marlon Taylor. But Taylor is 6'5 and a tremendous athlete. What little offensive game he has is all power and outrageous leaping ability. I'm not quite sure Izzo would like that matchup if you're trying to keep Winston away from fouls. Taylor is a slasher. You could put him on Mays who, while not necessarily an explosive athlete, is very savvy and will surprise you with unexpected bursts of athleticism. He's quietly been LSU's leading scorer in the first two tournament games.

The problem you run into with that is who is going to guard Waters? Like Winston, he's LSU's engine and generally a tough matchup. Do you put a bigger, less quick player on Waters? He usually handles those matchups well and LSU's offense is at its best when he penetrates the lane and either scores or sets someone up for a dunk/layup

I can't see Winston guarding anyone except Waters, because Waters on anyone else is probably a mismatch Izzo doesn't want. Either way, it should be a tremendous PG battle. Neither guy looks physically imposing, but both can complete control a game. My big worry with Waters is his risk-taking style of defense. He has huge steal numbers and can be a pest on defense. However, he has a tendency to strictly look to force steals and in the process, get out of position an leave guys with easy shots.

You guys would know better than me, but I think MSU is going to pack it in a bit, go under ball screens and make LSU prove they can consistently hit 3's. (something they haven't done all year). Conversely, LSU's guards are going to try to get it on the rim and attack any misses with 6'10 and 6'11 length

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but I think MSU is going to pack it in a bit, go under ball screens and make LSU prove they can consistently hit 3's.

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I'm almost positive they'll do this. They did this against Simpson on Michigan all 3 times because he's a great driver and only 31% on 3's, and based on the stats, your main 3 point shooters are all 30-35%. In general their identity on defense is to not allow layups, contest every shot, don't get beat going for a steal, and rebound. Although Tillman Ward and Goins all average over a block per game.

Only comparison I have for matchups is that your guards are a lot like Purdue's. An elite, short point guard (carson edwards/waters), and an athletic, tall shooting guard (eastern / mays, smart, taylor). In that case mcquaid guarded edwards, and winston guarded eastern. Purdue posted up on winston a lot, but not very effectively. It will be interesting for sure to see what they do. Izzo is all about trying to find any bit of rest he can for winston, because he is not coming out at all this game unless they build a big lead at some point.

Loyer has limited minutes, but that is primarily, as I said, because Izzo wants Winston on the floor as much as possible. There is a difference between a walk-on and a fairly highly rated freshman who is a scholarship player. Loyer is not ideal, but he isn't a walk-on. I find the back-tracking from "walk-on" to "I meant walk-on numbers," somewhat eye-rolling.

You are absolutely correct about length. Most of MSU blocks are from help defense on perimeter players, versus blocks in post defense. Tillman, who is arguably short for a 5, has a knack for delaying his help on a driving guard until the guard is committed to a lay-up, and then swatting it out of bounds. MSU has a lot less length than last season, but more blocked shots.

Michigan tried to penetrate as much as possible in the 2nd matchup, and a lot of those shot attempts were blocked. But MSU is not swatting a lot of post-up attempts.

Ultimately I think MSU needs to hang onto the damn ball ball to win. LSU I think needs to get its crap together with shot selection.

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I can't see Winston guarding anyone except Waters

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This is the matchup LSU needs to exploit. Waters usually struggles against defenders with length and size which Winston does not possess. He is their worst defender and will be avoiding fouls at all costs because they need him on the floor all game. Don’t be surprised if McQuaid guards Waters in spurts as he is their best defender and did a wonderful job in both games against Carsen Edwards (7/35 shooting). LSU is at their best when Waters is able to get into the lane. If McQuaid is on Waters I would immediately take advantage of Winston on Mays as his slashing ability/size could present a problem for Michigan State defensively. If Winston is able to contain Waters that would make it very difficult for LSU to win

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The interesting thing about LSU is for a team that scores most of their points in the paint, they do not throw it into posted up bigs very often. We aren't very savvy with our back to the basket. It may happen a time or two in our game but we really are an exclusively front up scoring team. We drive to the hoop for layups, dribble and pass for layups, or rebound and put up layups.

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They try to post Reid up but he often doesn't have the lower body strength to bully people in the paint. Also, he loves to float around the perimeter and try to either shoot or take guys off the dribble. Kavell is more in the mold of a DeAndre Jordan or Clint Capela in that he is a good lob threat and defensive presence but he just doesn't have any real back to the basket game.

Thoughts on LSU's main rotation? We obviously like to have three ball handlers on the floor and the Waters-Mays-Smart lineup is so deadly, but with MSU playing three forwards the entire game, will we deviate? That Henry kid is more of a wing and I'm sure Taylor can lock him down easily, but can Smart matchup with him?

Also, I'm curious if we see Taylor play on either Winston or McQuaid. He's so good at d that he could be pretty effective against either.

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I find the back-tracking from "walk-on" to "I meant walk-on numbers," somewhat eye-rolling.

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ok. You can eye-roll all you wish, I stand by that Loyer has walk-on type numbers. You can say there is a difference, but look at our backup guard off the bench vs yours. Then look at our "walk-on" Marshall Graves who would get minutes on many many other teams if there weren't 4 better players in front of him.

I'm sure Foster Loyer will be great as a Junior and Senior, but my point remains the same. If Loyer gets any extended action MSU is in trouble. I would think you would admit that considering the guys overall numbers and not outlier games against Ohio State and Green Bay. If Marshall Graves for LSU plays more than 4 minutes I will be terrified.

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You are absolutely correct about length. Most of MSU blocks are from help defense on perimeter players, versus blocks in post defense. Tillman, who is arguably short for a 5, has a knack for delaying his help on a driving guard until the guard is committed to a lay-up, and then swatting it out of bounds. MSU has a lot less length than last season, but more blocked shots.

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I'm mostly worried about just contesting shots, not necessarily blocking them. Mays and Smart go into the lane sometimes and just throw stuff up as to not get blocked. It works out if the team is undisciplined with their blocking/rebounding assignments and allows for many offensive rebounds...however I don't think that will be the case on Friday.

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Only comparison I have for matchups is that your guards are a lot like Purdue's. An elite, short point guard (carson edwards/waters)

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I haven't watched a ton of Purdue games, but the little I've seen of them Edwards is pulling up from three A LOT. I don't think he's really comparable to Waters. Waters will shoot the three if left open, but he's at his best when he's driving and facilitating.

I think that's why you see McQuaid able to shut Edwards down with his length on the perimeter, but I think Waters would give him issues with his quickness and ability to penetrate.