Projected Lineup:
Arkansas:
F Moses Kingsley 6'10 230 17.3ppg 9.5rpg 2.7bpg
F Keaton Miles 6'7 212 3.8ppg 3.3rpg
G Anthlon Bell 6'3 185 17.0ppg 46.8% from 3
G Dusty Hannahs 6'3 203 16.5ppg 48.3% from 3
G Jabril Durham 6'1 185 6.6ppg 7.4apg

LSU:
F Craig Victor
F Ben Simmons
G Keith Hornsby
G Jalyn Patterson
G Tim Quarterman

About Arkansas:
Arkansas comes into the contest at 9-7 overall 3-1 in the SEC. As always, it's still a bit early to look at RPI and there are 15 different RPI sites, but Arkansas on average has an RPI in the 70's. So although not a statement win, a win that will help as a top 100 win (possibly). This Arkansas team is not unlike the others they have had in the past. They play fast, they play aggressive, they have a dominant big man, good shooters, nearly unbeatable at home, not good on the road. They have losses @Wake, @Dayton, @A&M, in Little Rock to Mercer, neutral site losses to Stanford and GT, and a loss at home to Akron (who has one of the best 3-point defenses in the nation).

Offensively:
Stats:
PPG: 84.4 (11th nationally)
FG%: 47.3 (41st nationally)
3p%: 45.0 (4th nationally)
APG: 18.4 (10th nationally)
FT%: 72.7 (69th nationally)
Turnovers: 11.4 (50th nationally)
Offensive efficiency: 1.102 (33rd)

Arkansas is a very very good offensive team. They have 2 guys in Hannahs and Bell that can stroke. Then they have big man Kingsley who has virtually come out of nowhere to be possibly the best true big man in the league. Not to mention, they also have the top assist man in the league in Durham. They will rotate 10 players, all play over 10 minutes, and 7 of the 10 play over 20 minutes. Despite this, they have 3 main scorers that average high teens, then have only 2 other players averaging over 7.

6'1 guard Anton Beard did not play the first half of the year, and he has come back and averaged nearly 9 for them. They have 2 shooters who will put up 3's from anywhere: Hannahs and Bell. Beard can shoot relatively well, but won't shoot 3's often. No one else on their team can shoot outside the ark. Durham is the only other player who has shot over 5 3's and he's shot only 28, which isn't even 2 per game. So it is important LSU understands who the shooters are and identifies them.

Arkansas lives and dies by the 3. Even though they have a dominant big man, the 3-ball is what they feed off of. However, don't expect them to shoot 25-30 3's. As I mentioned before, they only have 2-3 shooters. They will average roughly 15-18 3's. The difference is whether they're making them or not. In all but 2 of their losses they shot below 40%, while the other 2 games they shot 42% and 41%. In their wins, they shoot well beyond 40%, often times surpassing even 50%.

Defensively:
Stats:
PPG: 75.9 (250th nationally)
FG%: 43.6 (175th nationally)
3p%: 36.9% (276th nationally)
Turnovers forced: 15.2 (32nd nationally)
SPG: 7.9 (32nd nationally)
BPG: 5.6 (17th nationally)

Per usual, Arkansas is great at forcing turnovers. They create lots of chaos, and then on the back end they have an elite shot blocker. However, they also give up lots of points. Teams like LSU and Arkansas will always give up lots of points because of the style of tempo they play. But as you see by the field goal percentages, teams are able to shoot a high percentage. Their 2-point FG% is lower than normal because they average so many blocks per game. That's nearly 6 extra misses per game for opponents which ultimately brings percentages down.

Keys to the Game:
Unlike some games where it's stop a specific player or two, or shoot well, or don't suck...there are some concrete keys to point to in this one.

1) Stop the 3-ball. As mentioned before, Arkansas won't shoot a ton of 3s, but the difference between when they shoot well or not well is huge. The barometer seems to be hold them to 40% from downtown. That doesn't assure a win, but they're 9-2 shooting above 40% and 0-5 when shooting below 40%.

2) Tim Quarterman. Do we get the 1/6 Tim from Florida where he was 1/5 from 3 and took some absolutely head-scratching 3's. Or do we get the Tim who did not miss a shot from the field against Ole Miss and played in control, or the UK game where he was energetic and absolutely dominated. Simmons is the focal point of LSU, it helps tremendously when Blakeney is actually making shots, but if LSU wants to make a run, it needs TQ to be locked in and focused from here on out...but that remains to be seen.

3) Victor vs Kingsley. I cannot imagine Kingsley would be guarding Simmons, therefore he'll be tasked with Victor. Last game, Craig stepped out and hit some jumpers which forced teams to respect his shot. His shot had been missing the last few games, and came back in a big way against Ole Miss. Because Kingsley is such an elite shot blocker, it'll be crucial to pull him away from the basket and let Simmons, TQ, Hornsby, and even Gray drive to the goal.

4) LSU must take care of the basketball. Arkansas thrives on get turnovers and getting easy buckets. LSU cannot have turnovers that lead to easy break outs. That obviously goes for every game, but with a team like Arkansas who create so many turnovers, it's even more important.

Prediction:
This is another virtual must win. Both of the home games this week were viewed as almost necessities. Ole Miss game was ugly, nerve racking, intense, and LSU played terrible for 3/4 of the game. But in the end, LSU won by 9 and nearly covered the Vegas spread. In the end, no one will remember we struggled, we will only remember we won.

With Arkansas, LSU is facing it's mirror image. Many of their stats are identical, and if not identical, very close. Arkansas was without a key player for the beginning of the year, and really struggled to find their identity. They have been blessed with a relatively easy start to the SEC schedule with their lone tough game at A&M. They got Vandy and State at home, then played an ATROCIOUS Mizzou squad on the road. This is a huge challenge for the Hogs as they have not played well at all away from Bud Walton. With that said, no one expects Arkansas to make the NCAA tourney, possibly not even the NIT. It is much much more crucial for LSU than Arkansas.

Fans need to realize that although teams may look less on paper, it is still the SEC and there are still electric and quality players on nearly every team. Almost any team can beat anyone. Look at Mississippi State going into Rupp and nearly pulling off the upset. Even though everyone would love a blowout win, all we have to do is win. Arkansas has some less than stellar losses, but they've also gone on the road and nearly pulled off some quality upsets.

It is Alumni weekend for LSU and they will be honoring the '81, '86, and '06 Final Four squads. 7:30pm tipoff, students should be out in full force (by the way, unreal turnout for the students the other night. I was literally shocked and still am...hopefully that continues.)...so I think LSU finds a way even though it may be chaotic and stressful.

LSU - 85
Arky- 78

ETA: Dusty Hannahs has a chance to become a top 5 most hated player of mine on Saturday. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

This post was edited on 1/15/16 at 2:32 pm