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re: predict the florida spread next week
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:52 pm to MisterGreenjeans
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:52 pm to MisterGreenjeans
What is the point of this exercise....the spread will be what it will be. Much of it depends on how LSU/UT/Bame/UF play tomorrow...injuries, etc.
MisterGreenjeans...."Team A -5" means that if you bet on Team A...your betting that Team A will win by more than 5 points...i.e. you're giving 5 points...alternatively, if you think that Team A will win by less than 5 points...or lose...then you'd take "Team B +5".....if you bet either way, and Team A wins by exactly 5 points...then that's a "PUSH"
MisterGreenjeans...."Team A -5" means that if you bet on Team A...your betting that Team A will win by more than 5 points...i.e. you're giving 5 points...alternatively, if you think that Team A will win by less than 5 points...or lose...then you'd take "Team B +5".....if you bet either way, and Team A wins by exactly 5 points...then that's a "PUSH"
0
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:53 pm to Mindenfan
UF +1 offense
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:56 pm to NoMercy
UF -34 since we will surprise Bama tomorrow night...hopefully.
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:58 pm to MisterGreenjeans
Al sucks. Have not even lost a regular season game since 2007.
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:59 pm to LSUzealot
uf -6.5
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:59 pm to Reel Gator
quote:
UF -34
Step away from the crack pipe.
quote:
we will surprise Bama tomorrow night...hopefully.
Tough, but doable. Good luck.
Posted on 10/1/10 at 8:59 pm to Reel Gator
Florida -11 with JJ playing Qb.
Florida -8 with any other LSU Qb
Florida -8 with any other LSU Qb
Posted on 10/1/10 at 9:02 pm to LSUzealot
Depends on the result from this weekend. If Demps is hurt tomorrow it could be as low as FLA -2.5. Our D is legit.
Posted on 10/1/10 at 9:08 pm to glassman
it depends on how florida looks against alabama, but i would say florida -6
Posted on 10/1/10 at 9:34 pm to The Seaward
UF -7.5. begging people to bet LSU
Posted on 10/1/10 at 9:46 pm to LSUzealot
Depends upon each team's showings this weekend, as perception can be built into the number. LSU's Passing game and Offense must show a lil' vs porous Vols team. And how stoutly Fla shows vs Bama, be it their Offense showing increased gradual improvement, or their Defense grade vs the Bama Offense, factors too.
I'd think LVSC makes Fla minus a TD-plus. I don't have Goldsheet's, LVSC's,etc..power ratings handy, but Statfox has Fla a 63(behind Bama's 65..with 4 for HFV..makes Bama -6 according to them..close to actual current line of 8), and LSU a 52..which would be UF 11 + 4 = 15..Jeff Sagarin has Fla 2 pts stronger plus 3 HFV = UF -5..
We all know UF will not be a two TD chalk over LSU, but 10, 10.5, or more is possible. Especially given Tiger's propensity to be swamped in Gainesville. As LSU tends to either win outright or lose by double-digits at The Swamp, with little middle ground for a balanced game in the post-Arnsparger into SOS eras of this SEC series..sans a few Saban-led outrights in Zook era.
My guess is it opens somewhere between 8 and 11.5.
LSU, despite warring Bama tough three straight years, and keeping within reach of Florida last year. In terms of national public perception, is that of an LSU program that though nationally elite, is no longer in the company of the Gators and Tide, whom have a line of demarcation over LSU these last two-plus seasons. This shows up in the pointspread openings and/or line drifts.
LSU is but 2-2 ATS, both losses vs ranked, both covers vs bottom-feeder SEC foes.
Fla is now 3-1 ATS, after their opening Bowling Green debacle, and is steadily improving their Offense. Meanwhile, LSU has regressed on Offense the last two weeks, and has confidence issues in their passing game, heading into a game on the road vs a lateral-speed run-stuffing team that can load and jam the box, thus forcing the throw. Conversely, LSU poses the same match-up edge when versus the Gator Offense.
I'd think LVSC makes Fla minus a TD-plus. I don't have Goldsheet's, LVSC's,etc..power ratings handy, but Statfox has Fla a 63(behind Bama's 65..with 4 for HFV..makes Bama -6 according to them..close to actual current line of 8), and LSU a 52..which would be UF 11 + 4 = 15..Jeff Sagarin has Fla 2 pts stronger plus 3 HFV = UF -5..
We all know UF will not be a two TD chalk over LSU, but 10, 10.5, or more is possible. Especially given Tiger's propensity to be swamped in Gainesville. As LSU tends to either win outright or lose by double-digits at The Swamp, with little middle ground for a balanced game in the post-Arnsparger into SOS eras of this SEC series..sans a few Saban-led outrights in Zook era.
My guess is it opens somewhere between 8 and 11.5.
LSU, despite warring Bama tough three straight years, and keeping within reach of Florida last year. In terms of national public perception, is that of an LSU program that though nationally elite, is no longer in the company of the Gators and Tide, whom have a line of demarcation over LSU these last two-plus seasons. This shows up in the pointspread openings and/or line drifts.
LSU is but 2-2 ATS, both losses vs ranked, both covers vs bottom-feeder SEC foes.
Fla is now 3-1 ATS, after their opening Bowling Green debacle, and is steadily improving their Offense. Meanwhile, LSU has regressed on Offense the last two weeks, and has confidence issues in their passing game, heading into a game on the road vs a lateral-speed run-stuffing team that can load and jam the box, thus forcing the throw. Conversely, LSU poses the same match-up edge when versus the Gator Offense.
This post was edited on 10/1/10 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 10/1/10 at 10:07 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
predict the florida spread next week
assuming we're 5-0 and they are 4-1
UF -4 in my opinion
UF - 9.5 and 43 O/U
Posted on 10/1/10 at 10:13 pm to Will Cover
If Bama wins by about 9 and we win by 17 then Florida -7. If Florida plays Bama close and we win by less than 2 Tds then -11
Posted on 10/1/10 at 10:15 pm to LSUzealot
I'm going on record, Florida will beat Alabama, by 10+
Posted on 10/1/10 at 10:19 pm to LSUzealot
Florida -7.5
Posted on 10/3/10 at 3:49 pm to TIGERforLIFEinTX
LVSC suggests/recommends it open UF -9.
Posted on 10/3/10 at 3:54 pm to hashtag
quote:
I'm going on record, Florida will beat Alabama, by 10+
Posted on 10/3/10 at 3:58 pm to LSURussian
If UF is anything less than a 10 pt favorite, bet the house on UF.
Posted on 10/3/10 at 4:02 pm to Mindenfan
It is out, -9, I predicted 8 on Friday....pretty good, think I have done this before....
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