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Message
Perspective on win totals / probability
Posted on 1/6/19 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 1/6/19 at 10:59 pm
I posted something similar in another thread, but I figured I'd build a calculator to check my math (because I'm a nerd like that...). So, in this thread, give me your projected win probability for each game on next year's schedule and I'll give you likelihood of various win totals.
For example, here is next year's schedule with my (generous?) projected win probabilities for each game:
vs. Georgia Southern (99%)
at Texas (60%)
vs. Northwestern State (95%)
at Vanderbilt (90%)
vs. Utah State (75%)
vs. Florida (65%)
at Mississippi State (70%)
vs. Auburn (70%)
at Alabama (30%)
at Ole Miss (70%)
vs. Arkansas (85%)
vs. Texas A&M (70%)
The point of the thread is not to delve into my numbers above - I'm by no means an expert handicapper. HOWEVER, I did build a spreadsheet to run 5000 simulations based on these inputs. Using the numbers I listed above:
Most likely regular season record: 9-3 (27%)
Likelihood of 8+ wins: 82%
Likelihood of 9+ wins: 59%
Likelihood of 10+ wins: 32%
Likelihood of 11+ wins: 10%
Likelihood undefeated: 1%
I think this helps illustrate how good a team has to be to win 12, 11, or even 10 games. Give me your odds for each game and I'll re-run the simulations and tell you the outcome!
ETA: For those that are more comfortable with point spreads, here are some examples of win probability based on spread:
-17: 91.4%
-10: 77.4%
-7: 70.3%
-3: 57.4%
+3: 42.6%
+7: 29.7%
+10: 22.6%
+17: 8.6%
For example, here is next year's schedule with my (generous?) projected win probabilities for each game:
vs. Georgia Southern (99%)
at Texas (60%)
vs. Northwestern State (95%)
at Vanderbilt (90%)
vs. Utah State (75%)
vs. Florida (65%)
at Mississippi State (70%)
vs. Auburn (70%)
at Alabama (30%)
at Ole Miss (70%)
vs. Arkansas (85%)
vs. Texas A&M (70%)
The point of the thread is not to delve into my numbers above - I'm by no means an expert handicapper. HOWEVER, I did build a spreadsheet to run 5000 simulations based on these inputs. Using the numbers I listed above:
Most likely regular season record: 9-3 (27%)
Likelihood of 8+ wins: 82%
Likelihood of 9+ wins: 59%
Likelihood of 10+ wins: 32%
Likelihood of 11+ wins: 10%
Likelihood undefeated: 1%
I think this helps illustrate how good a team has to be to win 12, 11, or even 10 games. Give me your odds for each game and I'll re-run the simulations and tell you the outcome!
ETA: For those that are more comfortable with point spreads, here are some examples of win probability based on spread:
-17: 91.4%
-10: 77.4%
-7: 70.3%
-3: 57.4%
+3: 42.6%
+7: 29.7%
+10: 22.6%
+17: 8.6%
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 7:08 am
4
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:12 pm to lostinbr
I’d put Northwestern State a 99.9 if you don’t do 100
Utah State should be a 95
Mississippi state a 85
Old miss a 95
Utah State should be a 95
Mississippi state a 85
Old miss a 95
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:16 pm to lostinbr
Georgia southern 98%
Texas 55%
NSU 99.9%
Vandy 80%
Utah State 95%
Florida 55%
MSU 70%
Auburn 65%
Bama 20%
Ole Miss 85%
Arkansas 80%
TAMU 60%
Texas 55%
NSU 99.9%
Vandy 80%
Utah State 95%
Florida 55%
MSU 70%
Auburn 65%
Bama 20%
Ole Miss 85%
Arkansas 80%
TAMU 60%
This post was edited on 1/6/19 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:21 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
I’d put Northwestern State a 99.9 if you don’t do 100
Utah State should be a 95
Mississippi state a 85
Old miss a 95
I don't think you beat any team 1000/1000 times, but using 99.9%, 85%, and 95% with the rest of the odds from my OP gives:
Most likely regular season record: 9-3 (30%)
Likelihood of 8+ wins: 91%
Likelihood of 9+ wins: 73%
Likelihood of 10+ wins: 43%
Likelihood of 11+ wins: 17%
Likelihood undefeated: 2%
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:22 pm to K_Tiger
quote:
Georgia southern 98%
Texas 55%
NSU 99.9%
Vandy 80%
Utah State 95%
Florida 55%
MSU 70%
Auburn 65%
Bama 20%
Ole Miss 85%
Arkansas 80%
TAMU 60%
Most likely regular season record: 9-3 (29%)
Likelihood of 8+ wins: 80%
Likelihood of 9+ wins: 55%
Likelihood of 10+ wins: 26%
Likelihood of 11+ wins: 7%
Likelihood undefeated: 1%
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:40 pm to lostinbr
Too many unknown variables to make a realistic prediction. ...white leaves? Coaching changes? Injuries? Arrests....etc
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:48 pm to Beessnax
That’s a fair assessment. I may repost this again in the fall to see what people think. I really just think it’s interesting to show just how much better you have to be than your competition to win 80+% of your games.
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:57 pm to lostinbr
That is pretty damn cool! Looks like something that I would conjure up...only I would show it to everyone at work, where they would all just look at me with some puzzled looks! 
Posted on 1/6/19 at 11:59 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Most likely regular season record: 9-3 (29%)
Most probable of all possible outcomes is accurate.
29% by definition does not represent a "most likely" outcome. A more likely outcome would be any record besides 9-3 (71% according to your data).
Otherwise I like the thread and your concept, just didn't want to let a very good post be tainted by an inaccurate statement.
This post was edited on 1/7/19 at 12:00 am
Posted on 1/7/19 at 12:59 am to lostinbr
9-3 next year with our roster and SOS will be a disappointment
I don't agree with 9-3 being the most likely outcome when we're favored in every game but 'Bama with even a decent chance to take that one
I don't agree with 9-3 being the most likely outcome when we're favored in every game but 'Bama with even a decent chance to take that one
Posted on 1/7/19 at 5:53 am to Walnut
quote:
I don't agree with 9-3 being the most likely outcome when we're favored in every game but 'Bama with even a decent chance to take that one
Then give me your odds for each game and let me run the math. Again, my projection was just an example.
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