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re: Official BCS Discussion Thread -UPDATED

Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:48 am to
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10349 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Mike and Mike


They can go back to talking about the NFL.
Posted by Lithium
Member since Dec 2004
63623 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:50 am to
quote:

Mike and Mike


Greenie was got to be married to Chris Berman's sister to have a job there. He sucks
Posted by Pilot Tiger
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2005
73523 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:53 am to
but it's so funny when they play those hilarious song parodies!

"JETS STINK!!"

greenie: oh man, you guys are just so mean. you're really getting me good! These guys are just so crazy, they never know when to quit
Posted by jdg91878
Do overs+Opinion poll politics =MNC
Member since Oct 2010
3742 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:57 am to
quote:

Is Bama's computer score going to be that bad?


It takes a hit with FCS Opponent Ga Southern this weekend and with each Penn St loss.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96490 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:59 am to
i want to beat up liam and joaquin.
Posted by jdg91878
Do overs+Opinion poll politics =MNC
Member since Oct 2010
3742 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:00 am to
quote:

Mike and Mike just had Herbstreit on and Greenie said outright LSU WILL lose a game


Herbie wants Oregon in the title game so bad cause he picked them to win it all preseason. He knows they dont get in without LSU losing and they still may not even with LSU losing.
This post was edited on 11/16/11 at 9:03 am
Posted by BRLawyer
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Member since Sep 2004
354 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:00 am to
This is premature (but only a little).
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96490 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:02 am to
quote:

This is premature (but only a little).


Two weeks left in the regular season. I think its perfect timing.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
92488 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:03 am to
quote:

2. Personally, I think if OU beats OSU they are in over Oregon and Bama


Matt - this should probably be your trigger point - if the Sooners beat OSU - then maybe start a tread about the opponent - go through all of the scenarios then.

I see only Oklahoma, OSU and Bama as possibilities, but if all three end up with 1 loss, and being relatively close, can't the outcome hinge on about a dozen games, or even more?

I haven't looked at how close the numbers actually are and it's academic until OSU loses. You're a better source to speculate among the 3 1-losses - if you say Oklahoma with 1-loss is over Bama, Oregon and Okie State, all with 1-loss - that confirms my gut check.

On a related note - the computers love the Vanishing-12 this year - how does the switcheroo (No Big-12 CG, First Ever Pac-12 CG) affect Oregon's chances to nudge into the #2 spot?



Posted by jdg91878
Do overs+Opinion poll politics =MNC
Member since Oct 2010
3742 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:05 am to
quote:

On a related note - the computers love the Vanishing-12 this year - how does the switcheroo (No Big-12 CG, First Ever Pac-12 CG) affect Oregon's chances to nudge into the #2 spot?


Oregon probably gets in over Bama as well. Likely opponents provided LSU wins out:
1. bedlam winner
2. 1 loss Oregon
3. 1 loss Bama
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:18 am to
Posted by Mahootney
Lovin' My German Footprint
Member since Sep 2008
12022 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:33 am to
quote:

this should probably be your trigger point - if the Sooners beat OSU
You do realize that this will be about 24 hours before the final BCS selection show right?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:48 am to
quote:

On a related note - the computers love the Vanishing-12 this year - how does the switcheroo (No Big-12 CG, First Ever Pac-12 CG) affect Oregon's chances to nudge into the #2 spot?


I would have said this was a big disadvantage to the Big12, but the Big12 performed so well OOC that the computers love them. They have the 4th toughest SOS right now and that will be even stronger after the OSU game. The Pac12 CG won't help Oregon a whole lot, since they will be playing a 7-5 ASU team or something.

I definitely think OU has the best chance of all the 1-loss teams.
Posted by noladan
new orleans
Member since Nov 2003
3803 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:54 am to
Matt, I have been thinking all along that Penn St going on a slide here at the end of the year was a good thing for LSU (since it will hurt 'bama's computer ranking). But actually, if we assume an LSU loss to Arkansas I'm thinking we actually want Alabama to have a high computer score to keep them above Arkansas in the 3ay tie breaker.

Am I right in thinking we want Alabama to have a high computer ranking if we lose to Arkansas, but a low computer score if we lose to UGA?
Posted by just me
Front of the Class: Schooling You
Member since Mar 2006
34489 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:58 am to
Seems like excellent analysis.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 9:59 am to
quote:

'm thinking we actually want Alabama to have a high computer score to keep them above Arkansas in the 3ay tie breaker.


Yeah, probably. But it looks like Arky is gonna be last in the computers no matter what. I am a bit surprised because that SC win is a better East win than anything Bama has. If SC beats Clemson and A&M wins out, I suppose Arky could creep up in the computers.

quote:

Am I right in thinking we want Alabama to have a high computer ranking if we lose to Arkansas, but a low computer score if we lose to UGA?


Probably, but I don't see a scenario where 11-1 Bama goes over 12-1 LSU that lost to UGA. Oregon would likely be the biggest concern (or maybe a 1-loss ACC champ?)
Posted by WiscyTiger
Bear Lake, WI
Member since Nov 2008
1419 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 10:03 am to
quote:

Thanks for all you do this time of year, Matt.



Posted by Pauldean
Red Stick by way of Syracuse
Member since Oct 2011
2636 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 10:09 am to
A loss in the SECCG and we are out IMO. Big 12 champ vs PAC 12, or ACC. Voters for the most part, want to see the conference champ. Clemson/VT winner will get a bump and get consideration...
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 10:18 am to
quote:

A loss in the SECCG and we are out IMO.


I don't want to belittle anyone's opinion but it is the "gut feeling opinions" without basis that bother me. You might be right, but you don't think 20% of voters put LSU over Oregon by virtue over their 2 TD win? Cause that's all LSU needs (or less).
Posted by TigerinOkieHell
Oklahoma City
Member since Oct 2010
2816 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 10:27 am to
Great info, greatly appreciate it. Is our lead in the computers really that strong though? I didn't realize that we had gotten such an overwhelming edge in them to be able to almost not need the human voters.
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