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Posted on 11/16/11 at 7:52 am to Navytiger74
quote:
Assuming one spot goes to OU or OSU, if we lose to Ole Miss, I can honestly see a lot of #1 votes going to Oregon as a PAC-12 champion with only one quality loss (to us) during the first game in the season.
Which would be fine. 75-80% of voters (or more) can forget we beat the crap out of them and we still get in by virtue of computers.
quote:
If we lose to Arkansas in anything but a squeaker, we'll probably drop to third place in the three way tie,
Based on what math? LSU would clearly be the best of the 3 on the computers. Arky wouldn't only be the worst, but teams like Oregon might have a better computer score - further squeezing out Arky
quote:
I don't think the BCS voters want another abortion like Oklahoma playing for the title after losing the Big 12 in 03.
That's the thing. The voters don't get that sort of choice. The computers matter. And as much as people don't want to believe it, they have a history of dropping teams only as far as it is ethically fair to do so.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 7:58 am to lsumatt
I can't believe y'all even considered and ole miss loss scenario......otherwise, I think its on point
Posted on 11/16/11 at 7:58 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
do you know how the tie breakers work?
Yes. It first goes to the BCS rankings, with the lowest ranked team dropping out of the running and the winner of the two remaining teams going to the game as long as that team is within 5 BCS spots (or ahead) of the loser.
What in my post led you to believe that I didn't understand that part?
Posted on 11/16/11 at 7:59 am to lsumatt
Clay Travis agrees with this 
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:00 am to lsumatt
quote:
Based on what math? LSU would clearly be the best of the 3 on the computers. Arky wouldn't only be the worst, but teams like Oregon might have a better computer score - further squeezing out Arky
You don't think it's conceivable that we'd drop below Arkansas if they beat us convincingly. I haven't actually looked at the numbers, so I'm honestly asking.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:01 am to Navytiger74
I think Pilot go confused for a second.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:10 am to Navytiger74
quote:
You don't think it's conceivable that we'd drop below Arkansas if they beat us convincingly. I haven't actually looked at the numbers, so I'm honestly asking.
well I specifically said that things change a bit if Arky wins big. You indicated that LSU probably gets left out. It is possible, but unlikely.
I think Arky would be third of the 3 in the human polls (by virtue of an overall unimpressive resume) but could see them slightly above LSU in the HUMAN POLLS. But its the computers that will do Arkansas in.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:15 am to lsumatt
quote:
well I specifically said that things change a bit if Arky wins big. You indicated that LSU probably gets left out. It is possible, but unlikely.
I think Arky would be third of the 3 in the human polls (by virtue of an overall unimpressive resume) but could see them slightly above LSU in the HUMAN POLLS. But its the computers that will do Arkansas in.
As I said, you've proven a lot better at analyzing this stuff than almost all of us, and I definitely see all of your points.
It'll get interesting if we do drop one. I certainly don't want to be sitting around with my fingers crossed come 26 November.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:16 am to lsumatt
a) Arky isn't going to win and b) they would have to blow us out to jump ahead of us.
I'm thinking we get the Okla/Okla St winner. If Oklahomo wins they will get the nod because they will win the Big whatever CG and use the arguement that they haven't been beaten by LSU
I'm thinking we get the Okla/Okla St winner. If Oklahomo wins they will get the nod because they will win the Big whatever CG and use the arguement that they haven't been beaten by LSU
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:18 am to Navytiger74
quote:
It'll get interesting if we do drop one. I certainly don't want to be sitting around with my fingers crossed come 26 November.
Don't get me wrong - I would be nervous. Plus I would have to pull for Bama over AU
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:19 am to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
First of all, about f'n time
Second of all, I know your OP was about an LSU loss, but, my question is about going undefeated.After we go undefeated, who do we play? Does OK-State get in if they go undefeated, even without a B12CG? Wouldn't Oregon jump them with the benefit of a CCG?
Also, let's say OU beats OK State. Do they get in over Oregon, with their loss being to TT and Oregons loss being to the number one ranked undefeated SEC Champion on the road?
And what scenario exactly do you see having to take place, with an undefeated LSU team, to have a rematch against Bama?
TIA and we all appreciate your research here.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:24 am to SLTiger29
quote:
First of all, about f'n time
I have done 2 of these, but neither got much traction
1. Ok State is fine for a bunch of reasons. Win out and they are in
2. Personally, I think if OU beats OSU they are in over Oregon and Bama
3. If OU beats bama, I think its close but the pecking order in my mind is 1) OU, 2) Oregon, and 3) bama. So Bama might need OU to drop another one (but then OSU is back in the discussion) and for Oregon to lose. Maybe if LSU got beat by Arky the "3-way-tie" would politically help Bama.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:28 am to Navytiger74
quote:you're assuming Bama goes to the SECCG if Arkansas beats us
What in my post led you to believe that I didn't understand that part?
LSU isn't dropping below Arkansas in the BCS standings unless Arkansas just obliterates us
This post was edited on 11/16/11 at 8:29 am
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:37 am to lsumatt
quote:
3. A Georgia loss would mean that LSU doesn't win the SECCG which won't be popular. But LSU gets in by simple elimination
LSU will have a decent argument, but the "conference champion" bit might be hard to overcome. One loss conference champs could get the nod. Honestly, it will come down to who the ESPN analysts decide is worthy. They made the case for us in '07 and it worked.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:40 am to lsumatt
quote:With all of the media on the Bama bandwagon, I would have assumed that the 3pt OT loss for Bama would get more support than the 13pt convincing loss for Oregon. Is Bama's computer score going to be that bad?
Maybe if LSU got beat by Arky the "3-way-tie" would politically help Bama.
Slackster was indicating that the computers tend to reward teams more for their wins than penalize them for their losses. If true, then LSU's computer score shouldn't take much of a hit with any loss. It would come down to the voters. If I were a voter, it would be hard for me to drop LSU below Bama and Oregon having seen both games.
It's pretty much a 5 team race: LSU, OSU, OU, UO, Bama. With the OSU/OU game happening right before the last poll, it may have more sway, especially if the game isn't close.
All things considered, I'm in agreement with you; it's LSU vs Ok/OkSt.
Thanks for your time.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:41 am to lsumatt
Well I certainly hope your right and you do seem to use logic behind your conclusions.
However, the media has already picked their best 1 loss team in bama and i dont see it changing...i just hope "the computers" cant be manipulated and LSU doesnt get screwed.
LSU by far has the most impressive body of work.
However, the media has already picked their best 1 loss team in bama and i dont see it changing...i just hope "the computers" cant be manipulated and LSU doesnt get screwed.
LSU by far has the most impressive body of work.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:42 am to TriumphTiger
quote:
Honestly, it will come down to who the ESPN analysts decide is worthy.
don't underestimate the power of the computers. LSU only needs 20% (or less) voters to put them above Oregon.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:44 am to lsumatt
quote:
don't underestimate the power of the computers. LSU only needs 20% (or less) voters to put them above Oregon.
true - Herbie and the computers
Posted on 11/16/11 at 8:46 am to lsumatt
quote:
I have done 2 of these, but neither got much traction
shite's getting thick now.
quote:
2. Personally, I think if OU beats OSU they are in over Oregon and Bama
We beat all three of those teams, two of them again.
Mike and Mike just had Herbstreit on and Greenie said outright LSU WILL lose a game, which I would like to know what leads them to that conclusion. I think UGA is going to be tougher than Arky, even though Arky has everything to play for. They'll be in our house and we are just not losing that game.
Regarless, LSU controls it's own destiny and I am very grateful to be in this position.
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