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Started By
Message
re: NFL - Over 15-yard completion percentage vs Under 15-yard completion percentage
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:54 pm to ForeverEllisHugh
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:54 pm to ForeverEllisHugh
quote:
Doesn't that sample size consist of a handful of screens, a couple of which he threw into the ground because they were sniffed out, and Giles' drop?
All the sample sizes are small. As a group he's under 50%, which isn't a small sample size by now.
It needs to be better, but I think it will.
1
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:08 pm to GRTiger
quote:
Considering he's 77th in the country in yards per attempt (6.9), I'm going to assume he's not even in the top half of the list for number of throws over 15 yards.
Apples and oranges.
Not even sure if Coach E cares about the long-ball completion percentage. He's stretching the field vertically with frequent enough completions, and hurting D's with pass interference penalties.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:09 pm to slackster
I am excited to have him QB the Tigers.
He is a winner. His Long balls have been on target for the most part, either his guy gets it or no one gets it.
He is a winner. His Long balls have been on target for the most part, either his guy gets it or no one gets it.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:24 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Apples and oranges.
Not exactly. YPA is a decent indicator, even if far from directly linear.
There are QBs with more attempts and way higher YPA. I'd be willing to bet they have more attempts over 15 yards.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:38 pm to GRTiger
quote:
There are QBs with more attempts and way higher YPA. I'd be willing to bet they have more attempts over 15 yards.
I'd also be willing to bet. I've been around college ball a long time. I've never seen this many 20+ yard attempts from a power 5 conference QB.
And YPA would only matter if he was completing a lot of them. He's not. Quite a few PI's though. (Is Coach E really THAT crafty? - I'm beginning to think so). Maybe more PI's than completions. And it is certainly preventing anyone from stacking the box.
Tough bet to win though. Passing charts are hard to come by for college teams. The 5 of 8 20+ yard attempts in the final 2 drives should tell you something. Can you match that with any other Power-5 team? Any year? Link me to the video.
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:53 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
So you'd be willing to bet Burrow has by far more throws over 15 yards than any other QB in college football? How much? If it's enough, I'd be willing to do the research, showing all proper citations, to find at least one P5 QB who has more.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 6:59 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Just from memory.
You are basing your statement on your memory of all of college football? How many games do you watch every weekend?
I would bet Burrow is at least 3rd just in the SEC West for passes 15+ yards. Tua and Ta'amu take shots downfield all game.
Just because LSU now airs it out some doesn't mean they do it "by far the most" of anyone in the country.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:00 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
I'd also be willing to bet. I've been around college ball a long time. I've never seen this many 20+ yard attempts from a power 5 conference QB.
Let me get in on this action please. No way Burrow has the most 15+ yard attempts in the air.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:31 pm to GRTiger
Two different issues
1) I don't remember any QB taking more 15 or 20 yard shots. I stand by that but I wouldn't bet much on it.
2) It is YOUR statement I'd bet against -
I would bet the farm against that.
1) I don't remember any QB taking more 15 or 20 yard shots. I stand by that but I wouldn't bet much on it.
2) It is YOUR statement I'd bet against -
quote:
"I'm going to assume he's not even in the top half of the list for number of throws over 15 yards."
I would bet the farm against that.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:38 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
just charted the last 2 drives of the Auburn game -
Not trying to kill your point, but 2 drives where we were playing catch up is probably not the best representation
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:41 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
Alright. I'm not going to get into it, because if you're truly a Buckeye who is here to give love to LSU and Joe, I'm glad you're here.
I think maybe you are thinking of percent of total throws over 15 yards, which I can see. Based on his YPA and total number of attempts, I really don't think it's probable he has an incredible number of 15+ yard attempts, relative to guys who have thrown more than twice as many balls and have double the YPA.
I think maybe you are thinking of percent of total throws over 15 yards, which I can see. Based on his YPA and total number of attempts, I really don't think it's probable he has an incredible number of 15+ yard attempts, relative to guys who have thrown more than twice as many balls and have double the YPA.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:42 pm to GRTiger
quote:
How much? If it's enough, I'd be willing to do the research, showing all proper citations, to find at least one P5 QB who has more.
Let me get in on this lol
I've posted several times that we're not throwing the ball downfield enough. Not sure what the OP sees
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:48 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Not trying to kill your point, but 2 drives where we were playing catch up is probably not the best representation
Not trying to be a smart-arse. But that sample is better than no sample - which is what everyone else has provided. Zip
By the way, here are Tua's 20+ yard attempts for 2017. 11 20+ from 77 total attempts. Anyone seriously think JB hasn't thrown more than 11 in his 78 total attempts this season? He threw 5 in the 4th quarter against Auburn.
Tua
LINK
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 7:58 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Anyone seriously think JB hasn't thrown more than 11 in his 78 total attempts this season?
How is that relevant in itself? There are 53 QBs who have thrown more passes than Joe this season. Do you seriously think he's thrown more long passes than all of them?
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:05 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
I count 6 vs Miami...whatever that means lol.
I'll concede the point, because I'm not sure what a lot means.
Amd no I don't think Tua playing in mop up duty in 2017 is a good comparison
I'll concede the point, because I'm not sure what a lot means.
Amd no I don't think Tua playing in mop up duty in 2017 is a good comparison
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:26 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Amd no I don't think Tua playing in mop up duty in 2017 is a good comparison
Just charted Tua in the Natty game. He threw 4 20+ attempts in the 2nd half. And threw the 5th as the game winner in OT.
If anyone comes up with some solid stats, please post them. I'll do the same. Any way you slice it, Burrow is tossing a hell of a lot of 20+ passes for LSU.
And thanks for posting the Miami stat.
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 8:28 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:31 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
This has everything to do with joe trying to force the ball downfield and nothing to do with defenses putting 8 in the box and daring LSU to go deep.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:41 pm to Lsuhack1
quote:
This has everything to do with joe trying to force the ball downfield and nothing to do with defenses putting 8 in the box and daring LSU to go deep.
Hope he keeps doing it. Shaping up to be a great season for LSU,
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:52 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
I count 6 vs Miami...whatever that means lol.
6 per game would tally to 78 in a 13 game season. I think it will be 8+ for Joe. 8 per game would be 104 in a 13 game season.
Baker Mayfield had 66 in a 15 game season last year. Most QB's seem to be around 50 to 60 (according to the passing charts I can find.)
Link to passing charts:
LINK
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 8:58 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 8:55 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
I like the progress so far, but he needs to stop staring down his primary target. And there were several times when he went ahead and threw to the primary even though he was well covered. He didn't look at other options. Hopefully, that'll improve.
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