Started By
Message

New Years 6 Projections as polls stand now (title updated)

Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:11 am
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:11 am
Because of automatic qualifiers to the Sugar and Rose bowls (both have both of their teams contractually obligated from a conference) and the playoffs being the Cotton and Orange bowls, there are only 3 At Large spots available this year with the 4th being an automatic qualifier to the best G5 team.

For example in a year when the Rose and Sugar are the playoff games, there are 5 at large spots (the Cotton, Peach, and Fiesta have no obligations for which conference needs to fill their spots). The Orange Bowl in a non playoff year takes the highest ranked non playoff ACC team in those years and then has a restricted at large selection between a non playoff Notre Dame/SEC/B1G team (how the other conferences allowed for this extra automatic qualifier I'll never know, unless someone else does and fills us in). then the highest ranked Group of 5 team gets an at large spot.

As of now we are ranked high enough to merit an At Large selection. Based on the most recent AP poll (CFP hasn't been released yet and it'll still probably be pretty close) the New Years 6 will shake out like this (asterisk indicates conference champion):

Playoffs:
Cotton:
Alabama*
Michigan*
Orange:
Clemson*
Notre Dame

New Years 6:
Rose:
Ohio State
Washington State*

Sugar:
UGA
Oklahoma*

Peach:
At Large
At Large

Fiesta:
At Large
At Large

Based on current standings the 4 at large teams after the Rose and Sugar Bowls fill their obligations are:

#7 WVU
#9 LSU
#11 UCF* (G5 champion)
#12 Kentucky

So those 4 teams would be assigned between the Peach and Fiesta bowls. Another interesting piece of information is UCF is actually highly ranked enough to be placed in a NY6 bowl even without their automatic qualifier of being the G5 champion.

TL;DR:
LSU if it can hold serve is eligible for an At large berth to the Peach or Fiesta Bowls or as the SECs representative in the Sugar Bowl
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 11:42 am
Posted by BornAndRaised_LA
Springfield, VA
Member since Oct 2018
5228 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:13 am to
Thanks. Every so often there is a post that offers actual info or value.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:15 am to
I feel pretty confident that LSU will be one of the 3 most attractive at large teams if they win out. 9-3 would mean we need help, but it wouldn't be out of the question.
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:17 am to
We win out we get in that simple. I disagree with you on the OU sugar bowl selection they played there last year. I think they would be Fiesta or Peach bound. I also don’t think the Peach would take UCF 2 years in a row as well.

I also think Sugar would take us because we would be the next best sec team since we beat uga head to head.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164137 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:18 am to
LSU is going to get sent to the fricking Peach Bowl and even though the Peach Bowl is a good bowl now it still makes people think it's the crap arse Peach Bowl so no one will care.
Posted by Wes225
Member since Jan 2017
727 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:18 am to
Doesn't the sugar take the highest ranked SEC team not in the playoff? If so Georgia is not a lock for Sugar.
Posted by OKtiger
Tulsa, OK
Member since Nov 2014
8595 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:18 am to
quote:

OU sugar bowl selection they played there last year


Clemson and Bama played last year
Posted by CP3forMVP
Member since Nov 2010
14899 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Thanks. Every so often there is a post that offers actual info or value.


rarely, but it happens
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:18 am to
quote:

I feel pretty confident that LSU will be one of the 3 most attractive at large teams if they win out. 9-3 would mean we need help, but it wouldn't be out of the question.


It's no longer about being attractive. The bowls have 0 power over who plays in their game other than their automatic qualifiers about which conference the team comes from. It's all based on your CFP ranking. If we aren't the 3rd highest team eligible for an at large based on ranking, our attractiveness won't matter. That's one of the good things about the CFP. Bowls get the best teams now rather than selecting ones that they think will buy up more hotels, travel better, etc...
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:21 am to
quote:

Doesn't the sugar take the highest ranked SEC team not in the playoff? If so Georgia is not a lock for Sugar.



None of this is set in stone. Simply a projection based on current rankings. UGA could easily blow one to Auburn or GT or get pushed behind us if we finish strong and they lose in the SEC Championship game.
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:22 am to
quote:

I disagree with you on the OU sugar bowl selection they played there last year. I think they would be Fiesta or Peach bound. I also don’t think the Peach would take UCF 2 years in a row as well.



This does not matter. The Sugar bowl in a non playoff year takes the Big 12 and SEC champions. If either of those champions is selected for the playoff then they take the next highest rated team from that conference. Regardless of if the team has been there before. The Big 12 moved their tie in from the Fiesta bowl to the Sugar Bowl when the CFP era started.
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 10:23 am
Posted by Wes225
Member since Jan 2017
727 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:23 am to
quote:

UGA could easily blow one to Auburn or GT or get pushed behind us if we finish strong and they lose in the SEC Championship game.

That's what Im hoping for, would be a much better turn out if we are in Sugar plus probably play a better team.
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
30004 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:25 am to
The sugar bowl isn’t taking UGA over LSU if both finish 10-2

With UGA coming off a blowout loss vs Bama and a head to head loss to LSU
This post was edited on 11/5/18 at 10:27 am
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
21785 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:27 am to
No way Alabama plays Michigan in Round 1.

They will get a layup ND team while Michigan and Clemson battle it out.
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:27 am to
quote:

The sugar bowl isn’t taking UGA over LSU if both finish 10-2


The Sugar Bowl has no say other than that they lobbied for a Big 12/SEC pairing when the CFP was created. The highest ranked non playoff SEC and Big 12 teams will be in the Sugar Bowl. Nothing else matters.
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
30004 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:28 am to
Why would Georgia be ranked higher than LSU?
Posted by am4titansandlsu
The South
Member since May 2006
10616 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:28 am to
If we win out and UGA gets blown out by Bama (both are likely), we will be ranked ahead of UGA and are Sugar Bowl bound vs. WVU or Oklahoma. If UGA is somehow ranked ahead of us despite the head-to head beat down we gave them, we'll play UCF in the Fiesta or Big 12 runner up (between WVU/Oklahoma) in the Peach.

That said, if Ohio State/Michigan both get left out of the CFP or Notre Dame loses a game, all bets are off on the Peach Bowl matchup.
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:28 am to
quote:

No way Alabama plays Michigan in Round 1.

They will get a layup ND team while Michigan and Clemson battle it out.


This is projected simply from current rankings. The committee of course may change their rankings in the next few weeks but as they stand, this is how the NY6 would shake out.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Doesn't the sugar take the highest ranked SEC team not in the playoff? If so Georgia is not a lock for Sugar.


If we win out and Bama wins out, we should be the highest ranked non-Bama team in the SEC and have a head-to-head dominating victory over UGA.

We will have a very tough game in College Station though.
Posted by jlovel7
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
21309 posts
Posted on 11/5/18 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Why would Georgia be ranked higher than LSU?


This is based off current AP rankings (CFP rankings are not available until tomorrow in which case if they differ I will update). UGA is #5 and LSU is #9 currently.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 2Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram