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Started By
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Neither the new offense, nor the number of snaps, is to blame for giving up more points.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:23 pm
RATIONALIZATION #1:
"Our offense strikes so quick, the defense is just playing more snaps than last year, so it's no surprise we're giving up more points."
Stats:
Through 4 games this year, LSU's defense has played 272 snaps. Through 4 games last year, LSU's defense played 298 snaps.
Reality:
This new offense is not causing the D to play more downs.
RATIONALIZATION #2:
"The defense is performing better than last year because we are giving up less points per drive."
Stats:
Points per drive is an inaccurate metric because some drives are 3 plays and others are 15, artificially inflating or discounting a defense's true efficiency. A more accurate metric is points per play. Let's see how we stack up there:
2019 LSU defense: 0.362 points/play (4 games)(#57 nationally)
2018 LSU defense: 0.326 points/play (#34 nationally)
2017 LSU defense: 0.301 points/play (#26 nationally)
2016 LSU defense: 0.232 points/play (#4 nationally)
Reality:
On a per-play basis, LSU's defense is simply worse than all previous years under Aranda.
TAKE AWAY:
There are plenty of valid reasons why this years defense isn't playing as good as they could, yet: Missing starters; Injuries; Suspensions; It's early in the year; Missed tackles that will be cleaned up.
But the rationalizations that they are playing more snaps, or that they are actually better than last year by some arbitrarily parsed metric, can be plainly put to bed.
"Our offense strikes so quick, the defense is just playing more snaps than last year, so it's no surprise we're giving up more points."
Stats:
Through 4 games this year, LSU's defense has played 272 snaps. Through 4 games last year, LSU's defense played 298 snaps.
Reality:
This new offense is not causing the D to play more downs.
RATIONALIZATION #2:
"The defense is performing better than last year because we are giving up less points per drive."
Stats:
Points per drive is an inaccurate metric because some drives are 3 plays and others are 15, artificially inflating or discounting a defense's true efficiency. A more accurate metric is points per play. Let's see how we stack up there:
2019 LSU defense: 0.362 points/play (4 games)(#57 nationally)
2018 LSU defense: 0.326 points/play (#34 nationally)
2017 LSU defense: 0.301 points/play (#26 nationally)
2016 LSU defense: 0.232 points/play (#4 nationally)
Reality:
On a per-play basis, LSU's defense is simply worse than all previous years under Aranda.
TAKE AWAY:
There are plenty of valid reasons why this years defense isn't playing as good as they could, yet: Missing starters; Injuries; Suspensions; It's early in the year; Missed tackles that will be cleaned up.
But the rationalizations that they are playing more snaps, or that they are actually better than last year by some arbitrarily parsed metric, can be plainly put to bed.
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 6:26 pm
10
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:36 pm to emanresu
The D is struggling more at the beginning of games when they are as fresh as they will be for a game.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:37 pm to emanresu
This is the rant. Sound logic and clear thinking is not welcome here...
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:41 pm to emanresu
quote:
ut the rationalizations that they are playing more snaps, or that they are actually better than last year by some arbitrarily parsed metric, can be plainly put to bed.
nah that shite will stay strong here with the football ignorant crowd. the ones who are clueless about X and O's. the ones who do not understand what they are watching. who only understand a run and a pass and nothing more. the one's who think saban can onbly recruit and are too stupid and lazy too look up his career defensive stats at all levels. The ones who swear kiffin was coming here whwne that was mnever said from his mouth verbatim. the ones who shite all over other successful coaches careers because they are so ignorant and butthurt and are too emotionally attached to this coach.
aranda has never had a #1 metric in the sec rankings
has never had a D ranked as high as saban/muschamp or pellini or chavis. they cannot handle the truth.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:45 pm to crownNbull
quote:
The D is struggling more at the beginning of games when they are as fresh as they will be for a game.
Except the statistics don’t support your hypothesis.
Held Texas to 7 points in the first half
Held Vandy to 10 points in the first half
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:47 pm to Fat Bastard
Aranda fricked your wife didn’t he?
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:47 pm to Fat Bastard
Wasn’t the first series some back ups on Dline?
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:49 pm to Fat Bastard
The defense is physically inept, irrespective of all of these numbers. They can’t be good and bad at the same time. They’re just bad.
It simply puts too much pressure on the offense to carry the water for the rest of the season.
It simply puts too much pressure on the offense to carry the water for the rest of the season.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:50 pm to emanresu
Interesting.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:50 pm to emanresu
It’s not about the plays though, it’s about how many times the other team gets the ball.
Through week 4 2019:
54 Defensive Drives, 79 points given up
Through Week 4 2018:
50 Defensive Drives, 59 points given up
The difference is that LSU played no offensively good teams and in reality no good teams at all in the first 4 last year. Texas accounts for 48% of the points our defense has given up so far.
Through week 4 2019:
54 Defensive Drives, 79 points given up
Through Week 4 2018:
50 Defensive Drives, 59 points given up
The difference is that LSU played no offensively good teams and in reality no good teams at all in the first 4 last year. Texas accounts for 48% of the points our defense has given up so far.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:53 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:
Texas accounts for 48% of the points our defense has given up so far.
People can’t comprehend this or the fact that 2 of Vandy’s touchdowns yesterday were on the offense and two more came in garbage time when the game was completely out of hand. They just look at the end score and go straight to “the sky is falling”.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:54 pm to emanresu
Saying points per drive is inaccurate because some drives are shorter completely ignores the idea of getting statistics on defense. If the defense is getting 3 and outs or causing short drives you should want that to show up in the statistics. It’s not inaccurate at all. All that points per play does is give the defense better stats for allowing longer drives. That makes no sense and there is a reason I didn’t go with points per play.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:54 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
It simply puts too much pressure on the offense to carry the water for the rest of the season.
The defense did it for years. Bout time the offense stepped up.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:56 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:Try making that comparison against 2016.
It’s not about the plays though, it’s about how many times the other team gets the ball.
Through week 4 2019:
54 Defensive Drives, 79 points given up
Through Week 4 2018:
50 Defensive Drives, 59 points given up
Posted on 9/22/19 at 6:59 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:
Try making that comparison against 2016.
Why? That season we had two losses after the first 4 games and almost 3.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 7:40 pm to emanresu
quote:not a good comparison. totally different opponents. different schemes. different coaches. different game situations. terrible point.
Through 4 games this year, LSU's defense has played 272 snaps. Through 4 games last year, LSU's defense played 298 snaps
quote:through 4 games
This new offense is not causing the D to play more downs
2018 - 50 possessions
2019 - 56
so, more chances for the opponent to score this year than last year. also, there's no doubt texas is a better offense than any lsu faced through 4 last season. by a lot.
quote:no way you can say that. #1 - injuries. #2 - substitutions because lsu is up so big so fast.
On a per-play basis, LSU's defense is simply worse than all previous years under Aranda.
quote:not really.
can be plainly put to bed.
Posted on 9/22/19 at 7:43 pm to emanresu
also, comparing 2018 to 2019 doesn't really work.
bama - 267 plays 1151 total yards 4.31 ypp
lsu - 272 plays 1280 total yards 4.71 ypp
this is the comparison we need to be looking at. and bama didn't play at texas
bama - 267 plays 1151 total yards 4.31 ypp
lsu - 272 plays 1280 total yards 4.71 ypp
this is the comparison we need to be looking at. and bama didn't play at texas
Posted on 9/22/19 at 7:44 pm to crownNbull
Yea here’s one they aren’t as good as everyone thought they would be period. This ain’t DBU,
Posted on 9/22/19 at 7:46 pm to emanresu
Nvm
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 9/22/19 at 7:46 pm to emanresu
quote:
The defense is performing better than last year because we are giving up less points per drive."
Stats:
Points per drive is an inaccurate metric because some drives are 3 plays and others are 15, artificially inflating or discounting a defense's true efficiency. A more accurate metric is points per play. Let's see how we stack up there:
This is a moronic statement that overlooks logic to prove a fake point. At the end of each drive, our offense gets another opportunity to score. Some teams score quick, some try to shorten the game and hold onto the ball, at the end of the day, they only get 1 drive to score before we get another attempt.
Every drive that we stop the opponent gives our offense the opportunity to increase the lead regardless of plays. Irregardless of the other teams strategy, this alone determines the outcome of the game.
In the past, we milked the clock in order to give the opponent less attempts. Now we score more and faster, giving our opponent more attempts. At the end of the day, 66 to 33 is better than 28 to 0. Period.
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