Nato prepares plan to counter Russian attack

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NATO is preparing a new battle plan for defeating a potential Russian attack on the alliance's eastern flank, with the strategy calling for forward-positioned troops, drones, artificial intelligence and other advanced systems to blunt an incursion and destroy Moscow's ability to command its forces, according to a Stars and Stripes report published Tuesday.

Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's supreme allied commander and head of U.S. European Command, is expected to present the concept Oct. 12 at the Warsaw Security Forum in Poland, Stars and Stripes reported, citing the Italian news agency Ansa.

Ansa and Bloomberg obtained unclassified versions of the battle plan, which outlines how NATO would respond to a potential crisis along the alliance's eastern flank.


The concept, dubbed NATO's "Theory of Victory," lays out a sequence for responding to a possible Russian attack, including a surprise move in the Baltic region intended to test the alliance's commitment to collective defense.

U.S. Army Col. Martin O'Donnell, a spokesman for Grynkewich, confirmed the existence of the plan Tuesday but declined to elaborate on its operational details.

"Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked," O'Donnell said, according to Stars and Stripes.

He added that NATO is a "purely defensive alliance" that does not seek conflict.

Under the concept, NATO forces already positioned along the eastern flank would first move to blunt an incursion before bringing in capabilities developed through the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, which focuses on drones, artificial intelligence and other systems designed to counter a larger opposing force, according to Ansa.

The strategy reflects lessons from Russia's war against Ukraine, where drones, AI, electronic warfare and networked targeting systems have transformed battlefield operations.

The NATO concept calls for such technologies to help destroy an enemy's command, control and targeting networks through a combination of conventional military strikes and digital attacks, Stars and Stripes reported.


If necessary, NATO would then turn to more traditional firepower, including combat aircraft and missiles, to destroy the enemy's broader combat system, according to Ansa.

The plan also envisions the possibility of military operations on enemy territory, suggesting NATO would not necessarily limit its response to Russian forces after they crossed onto allied soil.

The strategy comes as NATO has continued strengthening its eastern flank amid concerns that Russia could attempt a limited operation in the Baltic region or elsewhere to create a "fait accompli" before the alliance could organize a larger response.

NATO currently has nine multinational battlegroups along its eastern flank, in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The alliance says those forces are part of a broader effort to ensure it can rapidly reinforce members facing a threat.

Retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis Jr., a former senior NATO deputy, said allied forces already stationed along the eastern flank would not necessarily have to wait for a political decision in Brussels if attacked.

"Under NATO doctrine, they have the right to respond in self-defense," Davis wrote Monday in an analysis for the Center for European Policy Analysis, according to Stars and Stripes.

Davis said forces under attack could respond without waiting for a formal NATO decision to invoke Article 5, the treaty's collective-defense provision.

The more difficult question would be how far NATO would go in striking targets inside Russia that were enabling an attack on the alliance.

"You are not just going to try to catch all the arrows; you are going to strike the archer," Davis said.

NATO has repeatedly described its military posture on the eastern flank as defensive. The alliance says its strengthened presence is designed to deter aggression while allowing NATO to respond quickly if an Ally is attacked.

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