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Message
re: My take on LSU FB 2009
Posted on 6/28/09 at 3:20 am to ColtsTigers
Posted on 6/28/09 at 3:20 am to ColtsTigers
Has Ciron Black graduated yet? No right?
And who was the O-lineman who took his helmet off and argued when we ran that play where the line shifts right before the snap but we got called for an illegal snap or something?
And who was the O-lineman who took his helmet off and argued when we ran that play where the line shifts right before the snap but we got called for an illegal snap or something?
1
Posted on 6/28/09 at 4:18 am to BayouBengals03
Here's my way of looking at it. Here is our schedule with an estimate of the chance to beat each team. You can argue that some are high and some are low, but one or two games being off by 10% will have a minimal effect on the end results...
UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 95%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%
The expected outcome from this is 8.90 wins, making the most likely outcome a 9-3 season.
We have a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
We have a 9.6% chance of having 1 loss.
So assuming that 1 or no losses in the regular season plus a SECCG win (call it 50-50) gets us in the national championship game, I give us 1 shot in 20 of making it there (5.65%). That's not bad.
UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 95%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%
The expected outcome from this is 8.90 wins, making the most likely outcome a 9-3 season.
We have a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
We have a 9.6% chance of having 1 loss.
So assuming that 1 or no losses in the regular season plus a SECCG win (call it 50-50) gets us in the national championship game, I give us 1 shot in 20 of making it there (5.65%). That's not bad.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 4:43 am to lsutiger2486
You forgot about Ron Brooks
Posted on 6/28/09 at 6:02 am to deuce985
everyone always says we dont have a proven this or a proven that. this is college--every year every team has holes. florida having this much back with that much talent is a rareity. how much proof do u need? by the time people on here ger a proven anything, they will have graduated. college is about talent, leadership, and coaching. we have all 3. we are freakin loaded. no proven wide receiver?lafell is proven to be great- and the rest are good enough to make our offense go. real well.
and that...will be proven.... next year----sometimes u have to read between the lines and not be the most nit picking/critical tiger fan u can be (just because that seems to be looked at as smart theses days]and if you dont wear purple and gold glasses and rip the team apart, then your just being realistic right? this team is loaded, mean, fast, deep and well coached-period
and that...will be proven.... next year----sometimes u have to read between the lines and not be the most nit picking/critical tiger fan u can be (just because that seems to be looked at as smart theses days]and if you dont wear purple and gold glasses and rip the team apart, then your just being realistic right? this team is loaded, mean, fast, deep and well coached-period
Posted on 6/28/09 at 6:58 am to lesgeaux
quote:
The national championship is a very realistic goal for this year....
Could you elaborate on that?
Posted on 6/28/09 at 7:01 am to Dalosaqy
quote:
The national championship is a very realistic goal for this year....
An SEC West crown is a realistic goal. Just make it to Atlanta and I'll consider it a very successful season.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 7:37 am to tigerdup07
9-3 seems about right. With a better shot at losing 4 than winning 10.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 7:56 am to dukke v
Dude, you cite Hitt but miss BLACK?!?!?!?!?!
Ciron is a potential top 15 pick and pre-season All-American.......how could you possibly miss touting him as the rock of the O-line? He'll be the top OT in the SEC this year.
Analyst card REVOKED!
Ciron is a potential top 15 pick and pre-season All-American.......how could you possibly miss touting him as the rock of the O-line? He'll be the top OT in the SEC this year.
Analyst card REVOKED!
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:16 am to cardee2003
quote:
You forgot about Ron Brooks
I want to see him starting over McCray.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:26 am to Srbtiger06
Hold your horses. UF has the entire 2-deep on defense returning and a ton of offense. They are still the team to beat...twice. Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama all should be improved as well...the West will be tight. NC is a loooooong shot.
This isn't last year's UF. They have no proven receivers, and issues on the OL.
I like LSU's chances against them, and I don't even know if UF will be waiting in Atlanta when LSU gets there, as I'm confident they will.
This isn't last year's UF. They have no proven receivers, and issues on the OL.
I like LSU's chances against them, and I don't even know if UF will be waiting in Atlanta when LSU gets there, as I'm confident they will.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:29 am to lesgeaux
quote:
I honestly think LSU can beat Florida, and definitely think the Tigers will win the West easily.
FAIL
This post was edited on 6/28/09 at 8:49 am
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:36 am to DocBugbear
UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 100%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%
Fixed!
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 100%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%
Fixed!
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:39 am to lsusince60
Lots of questions, this year. Each question has a possible spectacular answer IF people step up like we are expecting them to.
BUT you can't forget the other side of the equation. The SEC will be better this year than last year.
Florida is certainly the favorite but look at it this way. Florida will be worse than last year. They return everyone so we know what to expect from virtually every position. They loose PH who is not replaceable. So we KNOW they will be worse at that position.
Bottom line is with a D like Florida has they have a great shot of winning any game.
Our hope is that Florida changes its offense to give Tebow a better chance of being drafted high in the NFL. And hopefully that hurts their offense a bit. It is just a hope... not a prediction.
BUT you can't forget the other side of the equation. The SEC will be better this year than last year.
Florida is certainly the favorite but look at it this way. Florida will be worse than last year. They return everyone so we know what to expect from virtually every position. They loose PH who is not replaceable. So we KNOW they will be worse at that position.
Bottom line is with a D like Florida has they have a great shot of winning any game.
Our hope is that Florida changes its offense to give Tebow a better chance of being drafted high in the NFL. And hopefully that hurts their offense a bit. It is just a hope... not a prediction.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 8:47 am to omegaman66
Alabama will be better than they were last year. But alabama actually sucked last year... despite the good record. They got better as the year progressed and still barely beat US in OT after we handed them all of their points.
The purpose of all that is in the post above you say 50% against Bama and 40% against Florida. I think that is crap.
IF we have a 40% chance against Florida then it should be about 75% against Bama.
The purpose of all that is in the post above you say 50% against Bama and 40% against Florida. I think that is crap.
IF we have a 40% chance against Florida then it should be about 75% against Bama.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:05 am to omegaman66
Best case scenario is 10-2 which I think will be good enough to win the west. 9-3 and a trip to the cotton bowl is the most likely scenario in my opinion. Anything less will be a disappointment and Miles' seat may start getting a little warm.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:24 am to DocBugbear
quote:Excellent assessment. I would be thrilled with a 10 win season this year with our schedule and player rotation. Last year was a disappointment but ending the year with a big bowl win always makes it better.
Here's my way of looking at it. Here is our schedule with an estimate of the chance to beat each team. You can argue that some are high and some are low, but one or two games being off by 10% will have a minimal effect on the end results...
UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 95%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%
The expected outcome from this is 8.90 wins, making the most likely outcome a 9-3 season.
We have a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
We have a 9.6% chance of having 1 loss.
So assuming that 1 or no losses in the regular season plus a SECCG win (call it 50-50) gets us in the national championship game, I give us 1 shot in 20 of making it there (5.65%). That's not bad.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:24 am to MFV
quote:
9-3 and a trip to the cotton bowl
wouldn't it be great if Texas dropped 2-3 games and we played them in the cotton bowl in the new Texas Stadium?
Twice pwned. Of course, they would be a very tough team to beat this year in football. The Texas meltdown would be huge, though.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:52 am to Helo
quote:
UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 95%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 65% (gave us a few more points given UGA has a pretty tough schedule leading up.)
UF(H) - 25% (too much experience and too good top to bottom)
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 35% (kills me to think this way, but I'm expecting Bama to be better by the end of the year, and they have a bi-week to plan for the game)
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 30% (playing at OM, although it depends on the direction our respective seasons take. Hoping that we get better and better as they get worse and worse, especially when reality sets in that they aren't the best team in the country).
Arkansas(H) - 70%
I'm thinking we go 9-3 or 8-4 with winning 1/3 of my lower probability rankings and losing 1 or 2 of the higher probability rankings. Maybe we beat OM in a battle just to be primed for Arky to take another shot...something like that.
There's no doubt we have plenty of talent to get the job done, but I just think that the West will be too tough to not drop a few that we normally wouldn't. We've got some good teams to play and we may just get fatigued at different points along the way.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:52 am to lynxcat
Reuben Randle is light yeats better than Tim Molton?
The original post (at least the 3/4 paragraph that I read) reads like someone got all hopped up on P&G jungle juice, wrote a peice and sent it off to Athlon for polishing.
The original post (at least the 3/4 paragraph that I read) reads like someone got all hopped up on P&G jungle juice, wrote a peice and sent it off to Athlon for polishing.
Posted on 6/28/09 at 9:59 am to tigerdup07
quote:
An SEC West crown is a realistic goal. Just make it to Atlanta and I'll consider it a very successful season.
plus one.
Unproven QB
Unproven Def
At least with JL you know what he can do,, limit his turnovers and the guy can throw and lead the offense.
With JJ its obv he has talent, however IMO he hasnt been thrown into the fire when it matters like JL has. PLyaing Ark and gatech isnt proof enough for me.
All in all we aved 31 a gam last season with all qbs, and 25/game when JL started.
Our Def should be main area of concern to see improvement.
A solid defese can carry a football team, IF they play up to par it could be diff between 4 losses and 1-2 losses.
Right now Im saying a 9 win season.
This post was edited on 6/28/09 at 10:03 am
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