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re: Must win - who do we have confidence out of the pen?

Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:42 pm to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Past history shows
But what does future history show??
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
17784 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:48 pm to
This is game 7 of the MLB World Series you do anything and everything to win this game. If that means throwing Hess and Hilliard an inning or two you do it. There is no tomorriw if you lose.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5012 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:48 pm to
Their rpi was 56 and their overall record was barely above .500
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:49 pm to
No SEC team had ever been left out with 15 wins until 2015. Then it happened twice in 2016.

The correlation is shitty RPI. None of those 3 teams were in the 40s though, but there's precedent regardless.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64570 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

I don't think LSU makes the tournament even with a win tbh.

If we beat state and play Florida in game two, win or lose, Our RPI should be in the 30s. There have only been 3 teams since 2010 in the SEC that have not made the NCAAT with a 15-15 SEC record and their RPIs were all between 56-62. With an RPI in the 30s or even low 40s, I would be very surprised if we didn't get a bid. The committee has already said that strength of conference is definitely considered along with RPI.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

Their rpi was 56 and their overall record was barely above .500
Only 1 SEC team with 15 wins or fewer got in with an RPI worse than 40. 2013 Florida.

So you have 3 teams that didn't make it and 1 team that did. That 1 team... had an administrator on the committee.
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 12:54 pm
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:53 pm to
If it breaks 40 and we make it, I'll eat crow. But I'm sticking with my original post.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64570 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

UK and Tamu are wildcards but I don’t think both lose. It’s no gaurantee that 3 of us 4 make it in. Not to mention that UK and Tamu are 20/25 spots ahead of us in RPI because they don’t suck on the road.

Regardless of RPI, I don't think A&M and Kentucky get bids without winning multiple games in Hoover. At 13-17 in the SEC, that RPI just isn't as meaningful as it would be otherwise.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

At 13-17 in the SEC, that RPI just isn't as meaningful as it would be otherwise.
Both UK and A&M played Georgia, Florida. Much more difficult opponents than what LSU had to face.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64570 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

If it breaks 40 and we make it, I'll eat crow. But I'm sticking with my original post.

Is this partially due to PTSD with the committee screwing us over in 2006 and 2011?
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5012 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 12:58 pm to
What were those teams’ Rpi? In the 40s or in the 50s and 60s?
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:01 pm to
Mostly to do with our putrid road/neutral record tbh. And 1-2 at the SECT isn't going to make me think this team deserves to be in the NCAAT. 5-17 isn't any better than 4-15.

ETA: But I would feel better about our chances if we had someone on the committee
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 1:03 pm
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64570 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

Both UK and A&M played Georgia, Florida. Much more difficult opponents than what LSU had to face.

I didn't argue otherwise, but I think it's somewhat of a false premise to assume their record would have been better otherwise. For instance, State beat Florida but also lost a series to Missouri. I just don't think it's fair to give teams bonus points for losses. A&M has lost three straight series to close out the season and 4 of their last 5 (5-10 in those series), one being to Tennessee. Kentucky hasn't had a conference record above .500 at any point this season. They also have series losses to Alabama and Tennessee, the two worst teams in the conference. Getting swept by Vandy and losing a series to Tennessee to close out the season doesn't look great either.
This post was edited on 5/22/18 at 1:05 pm
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

but I think it's somewhat of a false premise to assume their record would have been better otherwise
Can I assume ours would be worse if we played Georgia/Florida instead of Tenn/Mizz?
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
64570 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

Can I assume ours would be worse if we played Georgia/Florida instead of Tenn/Mizz?


I don't think that would necessarily be fair either. We have been bipolar as well.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:08 pm to
We were 5-1 vs those two teams. I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be 5-1 vs UGA/UF.

My point is that SEC SOS is very different between UK/LSU/A&M and it favors the other two easily.
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5012 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Can I assume ours would be worse if we played Georgia/Florida instead of Tenn/Mizz?


Not really unless both series were away. If at home we probably go 3-3 and maybe 4-2 especially if we play Fla the last week of the season when they have nothing to play for and rest their best pitcher. like Miss St got too
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

Not really unless both series were away. If at home we probably go 3-3 and maybe 4-2
Are you fricking retarded?
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5012 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:14 pm to
so our conference record would be worse but our rpi would be a lot better if my scenario played out and since you think rpi is the end all be all according to your thoughts in this thread we would definitely be in.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84991 posts
Posted on 5/22/18 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

so our conference record would be worse but our rpi would be a lot better if my scenario played out
If they were home games that we lost instead of won, not necessarily.
quote:

since you think rpi is the end all be all
Oh good. A strawman.
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