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Logic of receiving first
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:34 am
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:34 am
I’ve seen Kelly say the logic behind receiving first is that analytics say that the first team who scores is more likely to win. Seems obvious that the analytics he should look at instead would be how often the team who receives first wins. It seems pretty clear that if one team averages 50 points a game and its opponent averages zero points game, then more likely the 50 point a game team will score 1st and will win regardless if they receive first or not.
12
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:35 am to Tshirts
Technically I guess LSU didn't receive first.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:35 am to Tshirts
The analytics say the team to receive first runs on average 5 more plays a game, thats what they are basing the decision on.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:36 am to Splackavellie
Analytics is a bunch of snake oil BS.
shite is why the Bengals lost last night because they didn't take the 3 from the goal line.
shite is why the Bengals lost last night because they didn't take the 3 from the goal line.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:39 am to LSURep864
quote:It quite literally could not be more opposite than "snake oil BS"
Analytics is a bunch of snake oil BS.
quote:The bengals lost last night because their head coach and play caller is a terrible head coach and play caller.
shite is why the Bengals lost last night because they didn't take the 3 from the goal line.
LSU in 2019 was HEAVY on analytics. That seemed to work out. In 2020 and 2021 LSU was not heavy on analytics because Ed Orgeron wanted that "old school smash mouth" bullshite.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:40 am to Tshirts
Agree, but a different way of looking at it is if we score how often is that the deciding score like 7-3. The last time receiving first made a difference in a college game was the carter administration. Maybe with the exception of a few Les Miles coached games. Lol
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:41 am to LSURep864
quote:
Analytics is a bunch of snake oil BS.
shite is why the Bengals lost last night because they didn't take the 3 from the goal line.
Opponents of data analytics cherry-pick instances when the expected outcome doesn't occur. People don't pay attention when the analytics-backed decisions work out.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 10:42 am
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:42 am to Tshirts
I think receiving 1st half or 2nd half is a metric very, very far down the list of things that will impact a game’s outcome.
I don’t understand people getting bent out of shape over it one way or the other.
I don’t understand people getting bent out of shape over it one way or the other.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:43 am to Tshirts
That would seem like a pretty dumb analytic thing to look at it you looked at college games. Just far too many teams and such a vast talent difference for that stat to have much meaning.
Hopefully BK is smarter to that and it’s more like between top 25 teams the one that scores first is more likely to win no matter how slight an edge that would be.
Hopefully BK is smarter to that and it’s more like between top 25 teams the one that scores first is more likely to win no matter how slight an edge that would be.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:53 am to Big4SALTbro
Man when we lose every thing is questioned.LSU is just
not ready for primetime and won`t be for a couple of years.
not ready for primetime and won`t be for a couple of years.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:56 am to Tshirts
quote:
I’ve seen Kelly say the logic behind receiving first is that analytics say that the first team who scores is more likely to win. Seems obvious that the analytics he should look at instead would be how often the team who receives first wins. It seems pretty clear that if one team averages 50 points a game and its opponent averages zero points game, then more likely the 50 point a game team will score 1st and will win regardless if they receive first or not.
I'll say that it's idiotic for a team that starts slow to receive first.
Receiving first is an old paradigm. Pretty much nobody does it anymore. I don't know if it's meaningfully different. But, for a guy who is fighting the "old school" narrative, it can't really be ignored.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:03 am to PP7 for heisman
For a team with absolutely no offensive scheme or identity, it was dumb to receive the ball 1st. If your team is an offensive juggernaut, you opt to receive. Teams do that when they feel they can move down the field without any resistance and score. Unfortunately, LSU is on the opposite end of that spectrum.
We should've deferred. Our defense has been better than our offense and we should've put the D on the field 1st. Not to mention we've been much better in the 2nd half than the 1st. SO that alone should've been reason enough for us to want the ball coming out of halftime.
We should've deferred. Our defense has been better than our offense and we should've put the D on the field 1st. Not to mention we've been much better in the 2nd half than the 1st. SO that alone should've been reason enough for us to want the ball coming out of halftime.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:16 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
5 more plays a game
with that advantage ......
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:16 am to Tshirts
If bech fields the kick, this is a non issue.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:18 am to thunderbird1100
But if your offense is pretty much garbage what does it matter 
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:21 am to LSURep864
Bengals coach is an absolute numbskull who will be fired as soon as Burrow leaves.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:22 am to PP7 for heisman
He's a terrible play caller, coach, and he loves analytics 
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:25 am to ibldprplgld
We're getting bent out of shape b/c our offense is not our strength this year and we are acting like they are so ultimately we wind up putting ourselves in a hole to start the game.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:26 am to ellis197575
He's stubborn like most coaches.. hopefully he listens
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