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re: Kelly supports the Bama over FSU decision

Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:33 pm to
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

What? Texas and Bama played each other OOC.


And FSU played LSU, which is why I said Mid Season. As in mid season out of conference. Bama played Chattanooga, they have a winning record. The point is it can be very obscured once you get into the details.

quote:

And? That's who they played.


FSU didn’t lose any games.

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It's not different if FSU had played somebody and lost to them


But this didn’t happen.

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They consider strength of schedule regardless of record,


Wrong. It’s in the very first paragraph of the selection process, see my post above. They use strength of schedule as a tie breaker.


quote:

Undefeated is not an automatic bid and shouldn't be.


No, it shouldn’t. But their selection process starts with record and pedigree.
Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

I’d like to add that all of the criteria is preceded by “when comparing similar records and pedigree”


Arguably, Texas, Bama, and FSU would have similar records and pedigree. Why I wouldn't even look at Liberty. It's back to does 1 extra win trump SoS, CCG opponent, and CCG win?

Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Wrong. It’s in the very first paragraph of the selection process, see my post above. They use strength of schedule as a tie breaker.


Does similar mean identical? 13-0 and 12-1 aren't similar enough to make you go to the other criteria?
Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

No, it shouldn’t. But their selection process starts with record and pedigree.



Starts with similar record and pedigree. Where's the line on similar?
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

Being considered isn't the same as automatically puts you in, but, yes, putting Bama in and then not Texas wouldn't look right.


LINK

quote:

Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar;


quote:

I get where you are going; what's the detailed protocol? Without it, there's your subjectivity. If you can find where it is stated, I'd like to see it, but those items I mentioned are what make sense to me.


I can’t find it. And I don’t really know how Michigan and Washington are so clearly above FSU.

quote:

I'm asking why doesn't Liberty get in with 2 spots among Texas, Bama, and FSU? For me, they don't beat out those three on any of the criteria I mentioned.


I’ll just say, this is my opinion - I don’t know why they ever had a playoff if it weren’t for giving teams like Liberty a shot. This season is tougher because there are many 0 and 1 loss teams

As per the selection committee criteria, they would not pass the first threshold of similar “pedigree” I suppose.

quote:

I take you mean they didn't base it solely on FSU QB injury.


Yes and no. They stated this as their reason. Once out of the way, they clearly used the stated criteria, but had to first get FSU out of the mix. At the end of the day, they started with the teams they wanted in and justified it from there.
This post was edited on 12/7/23 at 2:48 pm
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Starts with similar record and pedigree. Where's the line on similar?


As stated previously wins and losses have consistently been the determining factor in rankings.

How many times have undefeated teams been ranked below 1 loss teams? Has a 2 loss team ever jumped a 1 loss team?

Record is clearly important to the committee, and easily the most supportive basis of a team’s success. Is being undefeated similar to having one loss? Not really.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Arguably, Texas, Bama, and FSU would have similar records and pedigree.


Using that same argument, so would OU and UT
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

Does similar mean identical? 13-0 and 12-1 aren't similar enough to make you go to the other criteria?


Maybe, but who are we talking about? Bama and Michigan? TX and UDub?
Posted by Tigers4Lyfe
Member since Nov 2010
4506 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

their own rules
Their own rules are wins matter.
Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

Maybe, but who are we talking about? Bama and Michigan? TX and UDub?


I'm talking about your Power 5 conference winners who are really the only teams considered for the CFP. 3 undefeated; 2 1-loss.

In my book, they would all be considered similar record and pedigree. So, it's hard to use a tie-breaker across 5 teams that meet the similar criteria.

As far as Michigan and Washington, that's an interesting debate. Michigan was No. 2 most of the season until they got jumped by Ohio St. Michigan reclaimed number 2 after beating Ohio St. Come selection time, they weren't going to drop them.

Washington was below FSU until their win against Oregon St and they stayed above FSU through the rest of the season.

Losses by Georgia and Oregon pushed Michigan and Washington to 1 and 2. The committee wasn't going to push FSU above them. They both benefitted from staying ahead of FSU towards the end of the season and beating Oregon and Iowa.

So the 3-way look at Texas, Bama, and FSU was going to happen. I won't dive back into to all those considerations again.

I wouldn't have railed against an FSU selection; it would be justifiable, but I the selection of Texas and Bama is equally justifiable.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39443 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:32 pm to
quote:

FSU beat arguably the 3rd best SEC team by 3 TDs

By third best did you mean fifth best? And your whole analysis is shite. LSU played FSU the first game of the season and the offense was not clicking yet. Bama had to play LSU when Daniels was in an absolute groove.
Posted by timlan2057
In the Shadow of Tiger Stadium
Member since Sep 2005
16870 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

This is like when Les said he would be "honored to play that team" again in 2011 and voted Bama ahead of Oklahoma State in his poll.


Lol. Nothing at all the same. Now if we were hanging on to the fourth seed and CBK said “Bama deserves to be in the playoff” then it would be similar.

As it is we are nowhere near the playoff so CBK’s opinion on who should be in is inconsequential. Boy, the stupidity on this board.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

I'm talking about your Power 5 conference winners who are really the only teams considered for the CFP


But, they haven’t always been the ones selected. No undefeated P5 champ has ever been, until this year.

quote:

As far as Michigan and Washington, that's an interesting debate. Michigan was No. 2 most of the season until they got jumped by Ohio St. Michigan reclaimed number 2 after beating Ohio St. Come selection time, they weren't going to drop them.


Sounds like you are saying SoS or conf champ opponents was not considered and therefore

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they would all be considered similar record and pedigree.


Appears to be incorrect. They got in because of where they were placed months ago.

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Washington was below FSU until their win against Oregon St and they stayed above FSU through the rest of the season.


You are only comparing them to FSU, why is that?

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Washington was below FSU until their win against Oregon St and they stayed above FSU through the rest of the season.


So their qualification over FSU was being ranked ahead of them.

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They both benefitted from staying ahead of FSU towards the end of the season


So again, we are comparing which 3 teams? The ones with, similar records?

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So the 3-way look at Texas, Bama, and FSU was going to happen. I won't dive back into to all those considerations again.


I’m sorry, but it really appears that you are not willing to support your assertion that all 5 teams had a similar record and thus needed to have a tie-breaker applied. And you pretty clearly went through the undefeated teams first, then to the one loss teams. You are just recalling what happened and rationalizing it.

quote:

I wouldn't have railed against an FSU selection; it would be justifiable, but I the selection of Texas and Bama is equally justifiable.


Would it have been justifiable for the rankings to be 1.UT 2. Bama 3. FSU 4. Washington?
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

By third best did you mean fifth best? And your whole analysis is shite. LSU played FSU the first game of the season and the offense was not clicking yet.


I think you just proved his point. Are we talking about the entire season, or how they finished the season?

You can’t have it both ways by saying LSU is the fifth best team by static record/ranking, and also use the dynamics of the season to support the quality of a win at the time.
Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 5:46 pm to
quote:

But, they haven’t always been the ones selected. No undefeated P5 champ has ever been, until this year.


I'm only talking about this year. Every year is it's own consideration. That an undefeated P5 conference champ didn't make it this year is based on this year's circumstances. Ever been what? Excluded?

quote:

So their qualification over FSU was being ranked ahead of them.


Yes in that they'd have to have a very good reason to drop them below FSU when they were ahead of them all season and also undefeated and with better CCG wins.

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You are only comparing them to FSU, why is that?


UW and UMich were ahead of Bama and Texas by a wide margin and didn't have CCG wins that gave any doubt.

quote:

I’m sorry, but it really appears that you are not willing to support your assertion that all 5 teams had a similar record and thus needed to have a tie-breaker applied. And you pretty clearly went through the undefeated teams first, then to the one loss teams. You are just recalling what happened and rationalizing it.


Nothing to be sorry about. They all do have similar pedigree and records. UW and Mich weren't going to be lowered based on their SoS and CCG. UGA losing moved them to 1 and 2. That leaves Texas, Bama, and FSU.

quote:

Would it have been justifiable for the rankings to be 1.UT 2. Bama 3. FSU 4. Washington?


No. You reference the tie-breaker, but it's a five-way tie, essentially. UT and Bama can't jump Michigan and UW because of their CCG wins and SoS. UGA and Oregon losing and a 1-loss runner up Ohio St puts Bama, UTx, and FSU in consideration for 3-5. FSU had the unfortunate draw of their ACC opponents. So, yes, I think they look at it as a re-rank of the top 5, but there's wasn't enough to warrant dropping Mich and UW. Had they had weaker CCG opponents, you might have seen a different scenario play out.

I think it could have easily played out with FSU getting in with Bama or UTx being left out. It would not have been indefensible nor unreasonable for any two of those 3 making it to the final two spots.



Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:10 pm to
quote:

I'm only talking about this year.


This is what you said.

quote:

Power 5 conference winners who are really the only teams considered for the CFP


So are you just saying thats what happened this year? Because other teams have been considered that did not fit that criteria.

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That an undefeated P5 conference champ didn't make it this year is based on this year's circumstances. Ever been what? Excluded?


Yes, ever been excluded. Further, if you look at ranking the playoffs year over year, record is the prime factor in determining not only who gets in, but the seeding. Clearly, the committee has discretion in regard precedent. But when looking at the guidelines, and trying to understand the hierarchy, I believe the opening paragraph that includes “similar record and pedigree” has been demonstrated to mean that undefeated is the primary consideration


quote:

UW and UMich were ahead of Bama and Texas by a wide margin and didn't have CCG wins that gave any doubt.


UW won by 3 pts. Define doubt.

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UW and Mich weren't going to be lowered based on their SoS and CCG


This means nothing. You have yet to quantify any of this.

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No. You reference the tie-breaker, but it's a five-way tie,


But you keep making it a three way tie. And I’m trying to tell you that UT and Bama don’t need to be tied to eachother, because of the tie breaker.


quote:

UT and Bama can't jump Michigan and UW because of their CCG wins and SoS.


This is not a reason. Quantity it, at least a little

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UGA losing moved them to 1 and 2. That leaves Texas, Bama, and FSU.


This is just what happened again. I see you already moved them to the end of the list but I don’t think they should have been.

quote:

I think it could have easily played out with FSU getting in with Bama or UTx being left out. It would not have been indefensible nor unreasonable


It would have been the most defensible with Bama out, which is the point of all these posts. To believe FSU should have been left out, is to believe that your entire Roster needs to stay available for the playoffs. You must start with the assumption that they, not all undefeated teams, deserved to defend their case against Bama AND UT.

I know what happened, you don’t have to explain it to me. I’m trying to explain how it happened, and give my opinion that I don’t think it’s good for the sport. it’s a further step in the direction to quasi professional, yet Top-Heavy realignment of college sports that will be supported by Gambling more than fandom.
Posted by DakIsNoLB
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
583 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 8:40 pm to
Yes. You asked me a direct question earlier about which teams and specifically from this year. I meant that only the 5 P5 conference winners had any real consideration for the CFP. Yes, technically all teams in the FBS qualify for consideration, and a team like UGA was dang close to the top 5, but it really came down to just those 5.

We differ on similar. 12-1 and 13-0 would be considered similar given the P5 conference winners.

Doubt comes from quality if opponent. FSU and UTx are ar the bottom there. Oregon, UGA, and Iowa are better opponents.

It doesn’t mean nothing. SOS and CCG are criteria and the 4 that got in have it over FSU. Quantifiable I’ve tried to do. Opponents combined win loss record. The SoS and record of CCG opponent. That hasn’t moved the needle for you but I believe that is a major part of their decision.

It came down to the five. I explained why they wouldn’t drop Mich and UW. That brings it to the remaining three. It started with all 5 are of similar pedigree and record. They helped themselves with their CCG wins to stay above the other three. FSU arguably didn’t do enough to keep Bama or UTx out. I’ve stated why there. None is enough to trump 13-0 for you. And that’s fine; it’s enough for me to call it defensible.

I understand you get it; we differ on weight of criteria and it being bad for the sport. As I said at the end of my last, it would have been defensible based on their criteria to send any two of FSU, Bama, and UTx. I appreciate the civil disagreement. Happy holidays.

Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20029 posts
Posted on 12/7/23 at 10:09 pm to
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