re: It feels surreal but 10 2 is most probable not only a ceiling

Ole miss was overrated. Alabama is heavily favored for a reason. Because it’s at LSU and at night and because this isn’t the best Alabama team in a while or they would not have been beaten by Tenn., we have a chance, but they know the consequences of playing well against us and are not overlooking us after our domination of ole miss. I don’t expect a win against alabama and hope we don’t have a let down game against ark or A&M because we play them away and they both need the win and will be excited to beat us. We need to win one of those two away games.

I like the enthusiasm, but pump the brakes Tigaux

Forget about the spread...it will change next week for all you know. These are the same guys that said 7 5 for us. LSU has been unpredictable for vegas this year cause they are not quantifying the unquantifiable stats that are still objective like culture, focus, calm, attitude, confidence...college football is generally not well predicted for the spread even when its obvious who will win.

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You would fall of that limb...actually scored over a hundred average on probab class in college...got all the bonuses too

Most probable in 5 games depends on how favoured you are in them...if bama 50 50 and rest 80 20 for us, it would be more probable to not drop any

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Doubling down?

First off, you don’t even have the number of remaining games right. There are 4 games left, not 5. (Unless you’re counting the bowl which doesn’t make any sense as the OP says 10-2, specifically.)

Second, even if Bama was a 50% win probability (pick ‘em; it’s not) and even if all three remaining games were 80% win probability (corresponding to LSU being ~11 point favorites in each game; unlikely), a 10-2 record is still not the most probable outcome.

Cumulative probabilities over a 4-game stretch with 50% win probability in game 1 and 80% in games 2-4:

0-4: 0.4%
1-3: 5.2%
2-2: 24.0%
3-1: 44.8%
4-0: 25.6%

No matter what probability you use for the other 3 games (unless it’s 100%), 3-1 will be a more likely outcome than 4-0.